01-09-08 Storm System

[servocrow]

I just wonder how much cold air is coming afterward...sometimes these winter severe weather scenarios can be doozies!!

[Snowman]

I know he is not the best forecaster but here's what Spann is saying about the 9th.

NEXT WEEK: The 12Z run of the GFS shows our next good chance of showers and storms on Wednesday of next week with another sharp upper trough moving in from the west. It is hinting that we could see one inch of rain on Wednesday along with some risk of strong thunderstorms. Much colder air will be just west of here on Wednesday; the GFS shows Birmingham with rain and storms and temperatures around 60, while Memphis will be close to 30 with a chance of some light snow.

We will see some of that colder air by Thursday and Friday of next week, but it won’t be as cold as the airmass currently in place.

VENTURING INTO VOODOO LAND: The 12Z GFS shows a nice setup for the snow lovers; a deep surface low east of here around January 13 with cold air in place and a nice chance of snow for North Alabama. But, you know how it goes in voodoo land. I will say this is not a total outlier; we have seen previous runs with the same idea. Lets get the mid-week system next week out of here before we really deal with anything that happens January 13-14.

[lyngo]

I guess the main thing is that there looks to be a pattern change to colder toward the latter half of next week.  I doubt there would be enought cold air around for the 1/9 event to be frozen but maybe the passage of this storm would help lock in colder air in the longer range.  I've just got a feeling that mid/late January will be pretty exciting for the mid-South.

[Ron_Jarrell]

Just to note, MANY of the biggest snows in Nashville including the blizzard of 1951 began with temps at or near 60'F with a strong cold front dropping temps through freezing. We'll have to watch this scenario closely, but the models all progging a pretty good snow even if it is over 150 hrs away.

[msdawg911]

Hey everyone! I merged the two topics about this storm system into one topic to better facilitate discussion, even though there is both winter weather and severe weather chances with this system.

Let it snow!

[Thundersnow]

The GFS model run tonight is showing a pretty good squall line moving through on the 9th... maybe some flurries on the back side.

But, we may have to keep a lookout for storms with the brunt of this particular system.

[Ron_Jarrell]

Started discussion on the severe aspect of this in Severe Weather Forum as it seems to be coming together for some type of severe wx event...  possibly widespread.

[Nashville_wx]

Looks like the gulf is going to be open for action. After this warm up I think many of you are going to be able to watch some good storms that could bring us snowfall. With such a strong southeast ridge at times its very hard for the surface Low's to move east. So we need to get a storm to start too far south and east of us and watch it trend into something better for us. Latest models are backing of the extreme ridging. A lot of signs are pointing to some very active weather. I am not going to get into the models with you at the moment as they are changing and really need to handle this next feature first. Tonight I will make some comments on what I feel the next 2-3weeks will bring us.