01-09-08 Storm System

[Snowman]

A very strong system looks to move across the area on January 9 bringing a good dose of rain, and maybe ending as some wintry weather. Models dont look awesome, but we got time to sort things out. Pattern should become more stormy though towards mid-month.

[Thundersnow]

There is talk going around about the possibility of a severe weather setup.  The SPC has already highlighted that possbility for the southern Plains into the lower MS river valley for days 7-8.

Overall, it is looking like a topsy turvy weather pattern over the next couple of weeks.

[Snowman]

I would not be suprised. A very strong deep trough looks to be setting up. Models have been hooking on this for several days now. Since its within 10 days, I thought we would start a discussion. Severe Weather to snow. What a treat that would be.

[rhea weather]

hope the snow comes in bunches ;]

[Snowman]

Snowlover, when and where is that Picture from?

[Snowman]

Discussion from Louisville hinting at Severe weather episode possibly for west, southwest area's of Louisville.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

NO REAL CHANGES MADE TO THE FCST HERE AT THIS TIME.  LATEST EXTENDED
MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO SHOW LARGELY AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
WITH A DEEPENING TROF OVER THE ROCKIES AND LARGE RIDGE JUST OFF THE
EASTERN U.S. COAST.  MAIN WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD
WILL BE LARGE MID-LAT CYCLONE DEVELOPING ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE
ROCKIES AND THEN MAKING A RUN TO THE NE.  THE GFS IS MUCH QUICKER
BRINGING THIS SYSTEM THROUGH THE REGION LATE TUE INTO WED.  THOUGH
FROM THE GLOBAL VIEW IN THE MODEL...IT APPEARS THAT THE FLOW WITHIN
THE GFS SOLUTION IS TOO FAST...ESPECIALLY SINCE IT GENERALLY
FLATTENS THE FLOW TOO MUCH OVER THE PACIFIC NEAR HAWAII.  NONE OF
THE OTHER LONG RANGE MODEL DOES THIS...INCLUDING THE EURO.  THUS THE
TIMING AND FLOW OF THE EURO RUN SEEMS TO BE MORE REALISTIC AT THIS
TIME.  SO WITH THE EURO...FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIKELY WILL PLOW THROUGH
EARLY WEDNESDAY.  ONE THING TO NOTE ABOUT THIS SYSTEM IS THAT THE
GULF OF MEXICO WOULD BE WIDE OPEN FOR BUSINESS AS THIS SYSTEM
PRESSES EAST.  THE LATEST SPC MARS RUNS AGREE WITH THIS AS WELL AS
THEY SUGGEST PSBL SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE TO OUR WEST AND SOUTHWEST
MON/TUE.  SOMETHING TO WATCH OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

[Snowman]

Pretty Strong Confidence 4-8 days out: "Likely Severe"

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0330 AM CST TUE JAN 01 2008

VALID 041200Z - 091200Z

...DISCUSSION...

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THE EVOLUTION OF A DEEP
UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE WRN U.S. BEGINNING LATER THIS WEEKEND. WITH
TIME IT APPEARS BOUNDARY LAYER MODIFICATION OVER THE WRN GULF WILL
PROVE MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR SIGNIFICANT MOISTENING ACROSS THE SRN
PLAINS/LOWER MS VALLEY REGION. THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH WILL
LIKELY BE SEVERE...SHOULD DEVELOP IN ADVANCE OF THIS PROGRESSIVE
UPPER TROUGH BY MONDAY OR TUESDAY...THOUGH SLOWER EJECTION OF UPPER
TROUGH COULD DELAY THE SEVERE THREAT BY A DAY OR SO.

[servocrow]

I saw temps forecasted into the 60's that far out!!  Would not be surprised to see a topsy-turvey event happen.

Perhaps a little ThunderSNOW...

[rhea weather]

its a random photography photo i found lol....got all excited lol.

[lyngo]

I think mid and especially late January could be a very interesting time for us in the Mid-South.  It looks like there might be a split flow developing down the road and couple that with the return of arctic air and we MIGHT be in business!   

I could see more "overrunning" type events developing if this sets up but I'm obviously just speculating at this point.  I'm just glad the "blowtorch" warmup that we're getting ready to have looks to be fairly short lived.  My guess is that winter is not over by a long shot.  Let's hope! 

[Reneezelle]

Nope winter is not over by a long shot. Who ever said that?! Its only been two weeks and we haven't had our fix!!!   


  This is weird though because before reading ANY of this, I've had the date Jan 15th and the words BIG SNOW in my head. THEN last night  I dreamt of a SEVERE storm with tornado watches and I woke up thinking.... In January?! Tornadoes in January? Whatever Renee! But now this......... Im skeered.

[servocrow]

I think mid and especially late January could be a very interesting time for us.....

Happy Birthday, Servo...

[rhea weather]

JANUARY 13TH!!!!!!



LATE DAY JANUARY 13TH!!!!



THiS iS THE GFS MODEL PREDiCTiONS.....SO FAR! MOST LiKELY iT WiLL CHANGE.

[Snowman]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
330 PM CST WED JAN 2 2008

FURTHER OUT IN TIME...THE NEW GFS RUN IS SLOWER THAN ITS PREVIOUS
RUN AND NOW COMING MORE IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF MODEL...WITH A
SLOWER EWD PROGRESSION OF THE COLD FRONT...WHICH SHOULD MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA TUE NIGHT AND WED.

STRONG LOW AND MID LEVEL WINDS WITH LITTLE VEERING WITH HEIGHT
NOTED. GFS MODEL FORECASTS 850 MB WINDS FROM 55 TO 60 KTS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT OVER THE MID STATE...WITH ECMWF FORECASTING 65 TO 75
KTS. IT IS OBVIOUSLY GOING TO BE QUITE WINDY AHEAD OF THE FRONT
TUE NIGHT INTO WED.

ALSO...BOTH GFS AND ECMWF MODELS FORECAST LIFTED INDICES IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS. I WILL ADD SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FORECAST.
THERE IS EVEN A POSSIBILITY OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS...BUT MORE
INSTABILITY IS NEEDED AND IT IS TOO FAR OUT TO DETERMINE THIS AT
THIS TIME WITH ANY HIGH CONFIDENCE.

[Snowman]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
215 PM CST WED JAN 2 2008

THE MAJOR POTENTIAL WX MAKER APPROACHES THE REGION BY TUESDAY. A
DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH AND ATTENDANT SFC FRONT IS PROGGED TO SWING
ACROSS THE REGION TUE NIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...WE SHOULD SEE
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE RETURN AND DESTABILIZATION FOR SOME ORGANIZED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AND TSRA WAS INCLUDED WITH THIS FCST
PACKAGE. THE 00Z/06Z CYCLES OF THE GFS WERE IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE 00Z ECMWF...AND THEN THE 12Z GFS CAME IN WITH A
SLOWER SOLUTION WITH A MORE ELONGATED SFC/UPPER SYSTEM. HAVE
TRENDED FCST TOWARD THE EARLIER RUNS OF THE GFS FOR
CONSISTENCY...AND THIS MATCHES WELL WITH HPC AND SURROUNDING WFOS.
INSTEAD OF EXCESSIVELY CITING VARIOUS PARAMETERS FOR A SYSTEM 6-7
DAYS OUT...WE`LL JUST SAY THAT THIS SYSTEM CERTAINLY HAS OUR
ATTENTION FOR POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER GIVEN THE THERMODYNAMIC AND
KINEMATIC SETUP PROGGED IN THE EXTENDED RANGE GUIDANCE. LATER RUNS
WILL HELP US TO DOWNSCALE THE DETAILS OF THIS PARTICULAR SYSTEM.