January 16th, 2006 - 3:50 pm
If you’ve got plans this evening, grab the umbrella. Rain should reach the Nashville area between 6 and 8pm.
By morning, there may be a few t’storms in the mix. Get ready for colder temps from late morning to noon on, with the thermometer falling through the 40’s. As temps continue to fall Tuesday night, the rain may end as some snow flurries or snow showers. The Northern Plateau may get another dusting.
January 17th, 2006 - 7:35 pm
I’ve updated the accumulation forecast to include Nashville/Davidson County in the dusting to an inch category. This is also true for all counties in the northern half of Middle Tennessee and our eastern counties near the plateau.
The snow should taper off between 10pm and midnight. For school closing information check our News 2 This Morning. School superintendents will be checking their roads early tomorrow morning to make their decision. If any decide earlier, we’ll have them on News 2 at 10.
By the way, I’ll be posting more pictures soon. I’ll be adding them to the list in the blog below.
January 18th, 2006 - 4:36 am
Last nights snow will become today’s puddles. A steady southwest wind pushes us above freezing quickly this morning; we’ll top out in the upper 40’s. Tonight it stays above freezing so I expect clear primary roads tomorrow morning. Tomorrow and Friday we’ll have highs in the low 60’s. A return to Spring-like conditions for a few days!
I’ll have more on last night’s snow in a few hours.
February 3rd, 2006 - 4:38 am
As we get into the afternoon hours rain starts moving in from the southwest, rain chances increase tonight. Winds turn to the northwest late today; that colder air coming in will change the rain over to snow late tonight toward daybreak. The snow should continue during the first half of the day tomorrow; we’ll end up with about an inch of snow from Nashville to the east. About 2-3″ of snow possible by tomrorow night on the plateau. Cold weather ahead, going to stick around this time. Keeping a close eye on Monday morning, could be a nice little snow event!
February 3rd, 2006 - 8:02 am
Couple of chances of snow ahead…
During the overnight the rain changes over to snow. Snow going on during Saturday morning through the early afternoon (up on the Plateau all day). We COULD end up with as much as an inch of snow around the Nashville area and areas east.
Monday could be a different matter. The system doesn’t appear that strong right now BUT the cold air will already be in place. Look at what the Hydro Center is thinking for Monday, the area in blue means there is a 10% chance for a snow event of up to 4″ . Our first decent snow of the season?
February 3rd, 2006 - 2:44 pm
Lisa and I will post our expected snow areas/amounts on the blog a little later this afternoon, once we discuss it and reach an agreement. I don’t see us making huge changes to Jeff’s map from this morning, although I am a bit worried about surface temperatures hovering just above freezing tomorrow morning in the city. We may have to drop Nashville’s expected amount down to a slushy coating. Check back!
February 4th, 2006 - 5:41 am
I’m going to tweak our expected snow totals down for Nashville and much of the mid-state. Instead of a dusting to 1″, I’m going with just a possible dusting on the grassy surfaces in those areas. As I type, colder air on the backside of last night’s rain means wet snowflakes from Nashville to Robertson and Sumner counties. Our southern Kentucky viewers will also see snow this morning. Rain covers much of the eastern half of our viewing area early Saturday, but colder air moving in through lunchtime will bring snow showers to the higher elevations of the Cumberland Plateau. A snow advisory for 1″ to 3″ of snow is in effect through 6:00 AM Sunday for northern and central sections of the Plateau, with most of the snow coming from afternoon through the overnight hours. Precipitation aside, it will be a cloudy and blustery day with temperatures falling through the 30s.
February 4th, 2006 - 3:46 pm
The models are being consistent in dropping the next low southeastward through Louisiana with a dry area across the north half of Middle Tennessee.
Below are two primary models, the ETA also called NAM, and the AVN also called GFS.
Take a look at the two panels on the right side of each model. The top right on each is an isobar map with dashed thickness lines. They both show the low in Louisiana, the ETA in southeast Louisiana, the AVN in northeast Louisiana. The red dashed thickness line is often the rain/snow line. Notice it is well to our south on both models, meaning we are cold enough for snow.
The bottom right panel is 6 hour precip ending at 6am. Notice that it is all in southern Middle Tennessee on both models. The red line here is the freezing line at 850 mb or about 5,000 ft. Once again, it’s cold enough to snow, but both models keep the precip in south Middle Tennessee.
One thing of note is that we are splitting hairs here (actually counties) with global models. This is playing with fire (actually snow) when forecasting. The snow could easily end up in northern Middle Tennessee, as well. But the consistency of the models, and the fact that they’ve been doing this for several runs gives me a little more confidence that the models may be right. Also from my experience, a “clipper low” that drops southeastward doesn’t cause the over running of moisture that a Gulf low would provide, so the drier air to the north is possible.
As usual, we’ll be updating the forecast as we get closer.
February 4th, 2006 - 6:48 pm
We’ve been watching a new round of snow showers push southeastward out of Illinois across western Kentucky this evening. It looks like the snow will make it to Nashville by around 8pm and last for several hours. This could very well create some slick spots on the roads, with temperatures already below freezing. We should see a dusting of snow from this round. Drive carefully in the morning if you are church bound. Road crews won’t know about this snow, and there will probably be no salting of the roads overnight.
February 4th, 2006 - 10:23 pm
With tonight’s snow now shifting east of Nashville, any slick spots on roads are likely to the east, especially in areas that have a dusting on the ground from this morning’s snow.
Our snow chances for Monday still look most likely in south Middle Tennessee. Places like Waynesboro, Lawrenceburg, Fayeteville, and Winchester may see several inches on Monday. We’ll update tomorrow.
February 5th, 2006 - 2:58 pm
It looks like snow chances will be confined to the southern border counties and north Alabama with our “clipper system” heading southeastward out of The Great Plains towards the Gulf states. Unlike a Gulf low heading east or northeast, we don’t get the “over running” of moisture well to the north of the low. The models have been consistent on their projections of this low for several days.
Savannah, Waynesboro, Lawrenceburg, Pulaski, Fayetteville, and Winchester may see an inch of snow early Monday morning. In North Alabama, south of the Tennessee River, they may see 1-2″.
February 8th, 2006 - 6:22 pm
The Snow Advisory calls for 1-2″ of snow across the Cumberland Plateau.
The areas in blue could see just a coating on roofs, cars and grass to maybe an inch north of I-40.
We’ll keep you posted on any school closings with News 2’s Snowtracker. Remember to refresh!
February 10th, 2006 - 4:55 am
Rain moves in from the southwest this afternoon and changes over to snow tonight. How much? Right now its looking like about 2″-4″ of snow by Saturday morning around the Nashville area, as much as 6″ ends up on the plateau. Tomorrow we’ll have snow continuing (about another 1″, more to the east) and strong, cold north winds with a high only in the mid-30’s. For some reason I can’t get any of my graphics over to the web site, we’ll work on that this morning.
February 10th, 2006 - 3:40 pm
Snow lovers - the dances and inside out pajamas did the trick. We’re changing from rain to snow pretty quickly in northwest parts of the mid-state this afternoon. That said, we’re adjusting our snow totals upwards by an inch or so through Saturday. Be safe and enjoy!
February 11th, 2006 - 5:22 am
Some of us have snow to play in this morning, many of us do not. There’s just a light coating on the grassy surfaces in Nashville and points south. Many locations west, north, and northeast of Davidson County do have a few inches to enjoy. I’d love to hear how much snow you have (or don’t have) in your town: leave a message in the comments section if you can.
The map shows that other than some flurries and mist, no new accumulation is expected today. The exception will be on the Cumberland Plateau, where an inch or two (maybe three?) could accumulate through the afternoon. Expect clouds and a northwest wind today. We’re in the lower to middle 30s this morning, and we won’t get out of the 30s this afternoon because of clouds and a northwest wind. A few snow showers are possible later today and tonight on the backside of this system as it lifts toward the Mid-Atlantic Coast.
I will post Part Three when time allows me to.
