Call Maps for Friday Night-Saturday

[Snowman]

Please post call maps and discussions in this thread. Never to early to start making some early guesses.   :lol:

[David]

This is what I see right now ofcoarse  I am no expert

I know this is a very broad area for the Mix but  a mix covers everything right

[Ron_Jarrell]

Here's a rough map... too bad I don't have good graphics software



In the map above, an Arctic dome of VERY Cold air will drop out of Canada into the Upper Midwest on Friday. As the cold air is forced into the South, it will undercut the Warm, moist Gulf air that is already in place. With the Warm air overrunning the incoming cold air, the precip will initially change from rain to freezing rain on Saturday morning.

[David]

LOL I did mine in paint haha .. I have photeshop but I am too lazy right now to mess with that beast

[Snowman]

Great Explanation Ron, Thanks.

[Ron_Jarrell]

New Forecast posted 6:56PM CT Thursday:



Precip scenario setting up for Saturday morning.
Sleet will quickly change to all Snow across most of middle TN early Saturday morning. Light Snow showers should bring 1-2" of powder to most of N and Middle TN.  

Rain will change to Freezing Rain in the early morning hours of Saturday in the southern tier counties of TN into AL. There is a potential for a serious ice situation through extreme southern and southwestern TN, north Texas, Arkansas, Oklahoma, Mississippi, and Alabama as temperatures fall to just below freezing near dawn Saturday.

[Snowman]

Ron and David, what are you going through to post your maps? Look great!

[Ron_Jarrell]

I'm using PhotoStudio for mine. Pretty down and dirty, but I guess it works  

[Snowman]

All right guys, I am off to zzzzzzzz so we will se what happens tomorrow.

[Ron_Jarrell]

How Freezing Rain Forms -

Shallow cold air layer near the surface with deeper warm air just above the surface.

[Ron_Jarrell]

NASA's SPoRT WRF forecast sounding for BNA. This is for 6pm local time Fri night. Note WRF (Red line) being colder than ETA forecast sounding. Also the very shallow cold air almost entire air column above 5000 ft is warmer. Classis frz rn scenario Fri night changing over to snow Sat morning.

This is the 48 hr forecast from NASA. That's as far out as they go. This model was right on for last weekend's weather so I give it more credibility on borderline precip type situations.

[registered user]

Where is the place those maps are available?

[Ron_Jarrell]

Where is the place those maps are available?

Which maps in particular?

These are just amateur forecast or "call" maps. I post model outputs on the Winter Weekend thread.

Glad you joined, and welcome!

[Ron_Jarrell]

Just a note for everyone stopping by for forecast maps:

I will be updating my forecast tonight when I can get home and put something together. Freezing Rain will not be as much of a threat Sat early AM around I-40 northward. Should be cold enough for a rapid changeover to snow for MidTN after some initial sleet. Ice still a threat for extreme S TN and N AL into Arkansas, Oklahoma, and Texas panhandle.

[Ron_Jarrell]

UPDATED FORECAST MAP IN THREAD.