This just in from NWS in BNA (would also like to add that NWS Louisville on board with this for 50% pops in southern Kentucky and NWS in Morristown on baord with likley pops and Special Weather statement for eastern Tennessee)...Anyhow, AFD from BNA:
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1025 AM CST SUN FEB 19 2006
.UPDATE...
TEMPS IN THE TEENS AT MID-MORNING AND WITH FULL SUN WILL STILL
STRUGGLE ONLY TO AROUND 30 DEGREES BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWING CLOUDS NOT VERY FAR OFF TO OUR WEST SO
EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE AS WE GO INTO THE AFTERNOON. RADARS TO
OUR WEST ALREADY SHOWING PRECIP BREAKING OUT ACROSS OKLAHOMA INTO
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. IT WILL BE THIS AREA OF PRECIP THAT WILL WORK
ACROSS THE MID STATE TONIGHT.
UPCOMING EVENT FOR TONIGHT:
SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE POLAR JET POISED TO SLING YET ANOTHER SHOT
OF POSITIVE VORTICITY ACROSS THE MID STATE BEGINNING THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. FORCING IS NOT CLEARLY DEFINED. JET MAX AT
200 MILLIBARS ORIENTED ALONG A WEST TO EAST LINE FROM EASTERN
NEBRASKA INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS. MODELS SINK JET SOUTHWARD AND
INTO NORTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE BY 12Z MONDAY. THIS SHOULD AIDE LIFTING
IN A NARROW BAND THROUGH NORTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE BEGINNING THIS
EVENING. COULD BE ENOUGH LIFT TO GET A 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW OUT
OF IT ESPECIALLY WITH A 15:1 WATER EQUIVALENT.
SOME EARLY THINKING IS THAT WE WILL NEED AN ADVISORY ACROSS
THE NORTH HALF OF THE MID STATE AND ALONG THE PLATEAU FOR MOSTLY
SNOW FOR TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE SLEET MIXED IN. COULD
GET 1 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS THE NORTH HALF INCLUDING NASHVILLE. A
SLEET AND SNOW MIX ACROSS THE SOUTH WITH UP TO 1 INCH POSSIBLE.
MORE ON THIS IN THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE.
_________________
Nick -- Wilson County, TN
Weather Spotter
NWS BNA
