"Snacks between meals" (winter wx 1/21-1/31)

[Susan]

Thanks Kevin, I appreciate the explanation.

[Ron_Jarrell]

http://charlie.wxcaster.com/text/GFSSFC/GFS_kbna.txt

Linked it since I don't really feel like posting a txt table.

[kailynleto | Nightwolf]

Call map this evening...

Due to unforeseen circumstances, my map was cancelled last night.  I will *try* to do one this afternoon...

[joemomma]

Another one bites the dust (no pun intended, lol).  Maybe those of us on the plateau will something come from this....

[Reneezelle]

what do you mean??? Where's my snow?!

[Kevin]

Not that it means much but NQA (in clear air mode) is showing some very very light rain developing. Much of this might not be reaching the ground. Please note colors on the left as that is the radar legend - very light!



Still looks like just a flurry situation at best late tonight, maybe some slightly more impressive activity tomorrow with convective processes, but still not a huge deal.

[Thundersnow]

FWIW, Davis Nolan at WKRN said that the Canadian model was indicating a major snow possibility for Wednesday night and Thursday.

So, the GFS is not the only game in town.

The 7 Day outlook is interesting, as well. The AVN/GFS shows a cold beginning to the week, with a warm up bringing rain by Friday. However, the Canadian model called the CMC brings more cold air in with a major snow Wednesday night through Thursday. To see the AVN/GFS CLICK HERE, and to see the CMC CLICK HERE. For both pass your mouse across the times at the top of the screen.

(http://www.nashvillewx.com)

He made mention of this on air and on the blog.  But, he did say on air that that model was not as reliable.  So, he didn't seem too confident.  But, at least, he did mention the possibility.

Just one more model to throw into the controversy.   :?

[msdawg911]

Not that it means much but NQA (in clear air mode) is showing some very very light rain developing. Much of this might not be reaching the ground. Please note colors on the left as that is the radar legend - very light!

Image...

Still looks like just a flurry situation at best late tonight, maybe some slightly more impressive activity tomorrow with convective processes, but still not a huge deal.

Driving home from the restaurant tonight, I encountered some light sprinkles. Very chilly, though.

And for all those interested, I ate at Crescent City restaurant. Pretty good NOLA food.  

[Reneezelle]

I feel so very disheartened.      

[Kevin]

Here's an updated NQA Radar View...



I also drew in the infamous 5400dm line (1000-500 thickness) in red based on latest SPC mesoanalysis. Notice temperatures still well above freezing behind it, with all indications of precipitation being rain there (despite some national composite imagery you may be seeing on some websites).

I looked for a brightband signature and had trouble finding one, but it does appear to be one around 4500-5000 feet, which does match the latest freezing level indications from SPC. Generally the freezing level needs to get to below 1000 feet before snow can reach the surface (though in higher elevations this level can obviously be higher). You can get snow at freezing levels above 1000 feet up to 2000 feet but chances are very small <30%. At 2000 feet the chances are about zero.

[Kevin]

Can anyone confirm this?

KBNA 280320Z 35012KT 4SM -SN BR BKN010 OVC015 03/01 A2997 RMK AO2
     RAE16SNB16 P0000

[shaq725]

well Kevin i cant personally since i live two county south of Metro but i looked on WeatherUnderground and a personal weather station is reporting light snow

[amsd2dth]

LOLOL maybe it's waiting for Monday for Coach B and me!

[Kevin]

Thanks anyway.

Starting to look too little, too late for most of TN, though perhaps areas E/SE of BNA could still get something. Dry air is working in fast from the upper levels and now at the surface (evidenced by dewpoints in the teens moving into TN frm the NW) Moisture in this cold, dry air is dissipating fast per NQA and PAH, thus it would be likely that areas from BNA and to the North and West, including most of West and Middle Tennessee, will see nothing more than flurries.

Again, areas East to Southeast of BNA appear to still have a chance to squeeze out some snow in the next few hours, with perhaps a localized dusting possible.

[Thundersnow]

Where I was earlier, someone said that it was snowing.  I went out later, and it was mainly drizzle with just a few flakes occasionally mixed it.  On my drive home, I believe I saw a few stray flakes.

It's 36 degrees here.