"Snacks between meals" (winter wx 1/21-1/31)

[Eric]

Pulled this off another site.  Does this jive with what everyone thinks will happen?

[lyngo]

I can't argue with it at this point.  It's what I've been thinking all along.

[Kevin]

Hello. I was pointed to this site through another board that my call map (seen two posts above) was posted here.

Thanks for the nod by doing so   I guess I should clarify that map for those looking at it. It should be noted that in the mountains of East TN, that there is potential for 1-2" of snow there, which may map does not state. Also, I accidentally covered half of the Carolinas in that snow area, when it doesn't look as if it should spread much eastward that the mountainous areas in western portions of the states. Most of the activity should be on Sunday, and mainly east of I-65 as convective flurries and snow showers, so again any accumulations will likely be highly localized. Currently, not only does model data trend drier for the main precip Saturday Night and early Sunday, but low level temperatures looks too warm for snow across much of the region, maybe some mixing at the end of any light rain across N Middle TN.

This is definitely not going to be a big event, but could be a teaser for the week to come for some us (hopefully!)

I look forward to discussing and sharing my thoughts with all of you during upcoming weather events whether winter, severe, or tropical. This looks like a fun place to do such!  

Kevin (Memphis Weather - Yes that Memphis Weather on Talkweather if you follow there)

[lyngo]

Glad you found you're way over Kevin!  Keep us posted.....

[Thundersnow]

Welcome, Memphis Weather!

I'm also over at TalkWeather some and know you from there.  I looked forward to your input here.  

I hope we do get some convective snow showers in TN on Sunday.  I can recall some nice little events from convective-type activity.

You're right that it doesn't look huge at this point... but, c'mon anything at this point would be nice.  :wink:

[Reneezelle]

Good ol' Thundersnow. Always hopeful.
 

 Welcome Memphis Weather guy!

[Thundersnow]

OK... Something has got to come of this eventually...



Channel 2 continues to have the coldest bias of the local stations.

[Reneezelle]

heh heh heh heh heh heh heh heh    :lol:    :lol:    :lol:

[Thundersnow]

Here's tonight's NAM at 30 hours (tomorrow night):



That's some half decent moisture there in the cold air... if I'm reading that right, it could mean an inch or so of snow over the area.

I won't second guess the pros though.

[lyngo]

I will accept all snow.  Light, moderate, heavy it doesn't matter.  I don't discriminate.  Seriously, it'll be nice for it to at least look like winter with some flakes flying.  Maybe the Snow gods will be on our side this week and give us a nice thumping....

[Kevin]

Here's an updated map for Tonight. Increasingly looks less impressive but still snow possible in the highlighted areas, though its going to be widely scattered. Unless there is a drastic change this will be the last map for this...



Also, an important point...
A very common misconception out there is that is all preciptation behind the 540 thicknessline would be frozen/snow. That is NOT true at all. The thicknessess are just a guidance and can be quite wrong, especially in these type of situations. In this case, it appears warm low level air will hang around with the moisture just long enough to preclude much in the way of snow with precipitation before Midnight Sunday. After Midnight, some mixing could occur, especially in higher elevations. In these scenarios, its always best to look at soundings which can guage the low level temperatures and confirm whether snow is a possibility or not.

Here is the BNA sounding from the 0z NAM, for 6z Sunday (Midnight Sunday)...


The line on the right side is the temperature. Notice how when it reaches the bottm that it is right of the "0" indicator. That indicates a surface temperature above freezing, and in this case, appears a few degrees above freezing (probably around 35 or 36). There could certainly be some snow possible in that as freezing levels are lowering quickly, but it would melt on contact. In higher elevations where temperatures are a bit colder (the freezing level is around 1000 mb, which would only be a few thousand feet above sea level), a dusting would not be ruled out.

[Thundersnow]

Thanks, Kevin.

Besides everything else you said, the forecast is for 50s during the day tomorrow.  Even if the air temperature drops to around freezing... it's gonna have a hard time sticking.

[msdawg911]

Howdy Kevin! I've followed you on TW and on WxForum, and you know your weather! You're going to be a great addition to this forum!

[Kevin]

Howdy Kevin! I've followed you on TW and on WxForum, and you know your weather! You're going to be a great addition to this forum!

Thanks a lot Jake! I'm really looking forward to discussing the happenings in this state. Going to be a lot of fun!

[kailynleto | Nightwolf]

Call map at 20070127 0430 UTC...