"Snacks between meals" (winter wx 1/21-1/31)

[jmundie]

according to the 2m surface temps, the gfs looks too warm for accumulating snow on sunday. Looks to be a couple degrees above freezing. We're good at 850, but it would have to be snowing pretty hard to stick to even the grass at 37 degrees.

evaporational cooling?

[Thundersnow]

Interesting thoughts coming from the Nashville AFD this afternoon:

 BY SAT MORNING...SFC HIGH WILL MOVE OFF OF THE COAST AS AN ARCTIC
 FRONT SETS UP TO OUR NORTHWEST. RAIN WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA IN
 ADVANCE OF THE FRONT ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THEN...THE ARCTIC FRONT
 WILL MOVE THROUGH SAT NT. COULD SEE THE RAIN CHANGEOVER TO SNOW LATE
 SAT NT AS THE COLDER AIR MOVES IN. A CHANCE OF LT SNOW WILL CONTINUE
 INTO SUN AND SUN NT...AS A SHORTWAVE DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS TN.
 
 MODELS ARE GETTING PROGRESSIVELY COLDER WITH EACH PASSING RUN IN THE
 UPCOMING EXT PERIOD. IF THE LATEST GFS HOLDS UP...WE COULD BE
 LOOKING AT AN EXTENDED 2 TO 3 DAY PERIOD OF BELOW FREEZING MAX
 TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...FUTURE MODEL RUNS ARE NEEDED TO SUPPORT THIS
 POSSIBILITY. WILL THEREFORE JUST TREND TOWARD COLDER TEMPS.

[Thundersnow]

NWS forecast for Saturday night through Sunday night (from Wunderground):

Saturday Night
Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain in the evening... then chance of snow showers after midnight. Lows in the mid 20s. Chance of precipitation 30 percent.
 Sunday
Colder. Mostly cloudy with a 30 percent chance of snow showers. Highs in the lower 30s.
 Sunday Night
Mostly cloudy with a 30 percent chance of snow showers. Lows around 19.


 :shock:

[Chris]

Both Channel 2 and Channel 5 are reflecting these models with much colder temps early next week as well. News 2 is now showing a high of 31 on Sunday with a chance of snow showers. Channel 5 showed overnight lows dropping into the teens early next week.

[Thundersnow]

Yep.

[jmundie]

ho. ly. crap.

this just out from the CPC

For Monday January 29 - Friday February 02: A massive Arctic air mass, one of the most extensive seen in recent years, is expected to overspread much of the eastern two-thirds of the Nation during the first half of this period, with at least one reinforcing cold outbreak in the latter part of this period. Although model runs differ on the timing and exact location, it is likely that a storm moving along the southern boundary of the cold air will produce a significant precipitation event consisting of mainly a hazardous wintry mix from northeastern Texas across the interior South with heavy snow possible from the mid-Altnatic States to New England. Some uncertainty is introduced by the fact that although it predicts a significant system across the South, the latest 12z GFS operational model run does not bring heavy precipitation north of the Carolinas.

[Eric]

"Oh that's not good..."

[Reneezelle]

So what does this mean for me?

[snowdog]

0z Canadian model seems to pull back on the amount of precipitation available Sunday.

[Ron_Jarrell]

Eastern TN looks good for tonight:

Out of GSP SC.

Winter Storm Watch
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
500 AM EST WED JAN 24 2007

...ACTIVE WINTER WEATHER EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE NORTH
CAROLINA MOUNTAINS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.A DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THURSDAY
MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AS THE DISTURBANCE APPROACHES EAST
TENNESSEE THURSDAY MORNING...NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
STRENGTHEN AND BECOME GUSTY. THESE WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH THE
DISTURBANCE TO DEVELOP SEVERAL BANDS OF SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY
NEAR THE TENNESSEE BORDER. THESE BANDS SHOULD PEAK AROUND NOON ON
THURSDAY AND WILL LINGER INTO THE NIGHT. SIGNIFICANT
SNOWFALL...COLD WIND CHILLS...AND PERIODS OF BLOWING SNOW MAY
AFFECT MOST OF THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
AT THIS POINT...THE GREATEST SNOWFALL SHOULD REMAIN NEAR THE
TENNESSEE BORDER...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND SMOKIES. WIND GUSTS WILL LIKELY CREATE
SEVERAL AREAS OF REDUCED VISIBILITIES AND DRIFTS...ALONG WITH
PROLONGED PERIODS OF SINGLE DIGIT WIND CHILLS.

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.

[snowdog]

This is from the 12z GEM (Canadian Model).  Looks like it wants to start trying to explode that Low over the Gulf.  Just needs to start throwing more moisture to the north and BINGO.  Looks like timing and moisture will be the key.  If it can slow down just a tad and let the cold air get in here first.  

[Ron_Jarrell]

Check out txt of GFS (this link updates with every run of GFS): http://beta.wxcaster.com/text/1DegGFS/GFS_Kbna.txt

[lyngo]

Chilly....... :!!!

[Reneezelle]

Ooohh look at all the pretty colors!

[Eric]

2m temp of 18?  Surely thats not the surface temp.