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Author Topic: "Snacks between meals" (winter wx 1/21-1/31)  (Read 4050 times)

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Offline Thundersnow

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"Snacks between meals" (winter wx 1/21-1/31)
« Reply #30 on: January 20, 2007, 11:12:45 AM »
The long-range in the 12z GFS continues to be interesting.  It continues to show the cold airmass diving way into the south, with the 0-degree line going all the way into the Gulf of Mexico at times.  In fact, if the run is to be taken literally, the Florida Panhandle may get an accumulating snow on 1/31.   :lol:  :wink:





Something interesting is bound to happen over the next couple of weeks with all these scenarios the models are showing.

Just remember... these long range models may be used for entertainment purposes only.  :wink:
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servocrow

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"Snacks between meals" (winter wx 1/21-1/31)
« Reply #31 on: January 20, 2007, 11:35:02 AM »
Hee hee...Weather Porn INDEED!!

Shield your eyes!! :wink:  :wink:  :roll:  :lol:  :lol:  :lol:  :lol:  :lol:  :lol:
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Offline Reneezelle

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"Snacks between meals" (winter wx 1/21-1/31)
« Reply #32 on: January 20, 2007, 11:43:13 AM »
No comment.
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Offline joemomma

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"Snacks between meals" (winter wx 1/21-1/31)
« Reply #33 on: January 20, 2007, 12:59:25 PM »
Something has to happen.  Either that or I'm moving north, which I would truly hate to do.
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Offline Thundersnow

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"Snacks between meals" (winter wx 1/21-1/31)
« Reply #34 on: January 23, 2007, 12:03:42 PM »
I'm guessing that we probably shouldn't lose sight of the system this Sunday...



That model looks like it could give us an inch or two of snow.
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servocrow

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"Snacks between meals" (winter wx 1/21-1/31)
« Reply #35 on: January 23, 2007, 12:06:58 PM »
I was worried the weather might keep my company from getting here...

Now there might be a possibility, the snow could KEEP them here!!

hee hee...

Happy Flippin' BIRTHDAY TO ME!!!

 :lol:  :lol:  :lol:  :lol:  :lol:  :lol:  :lol:  :lol:  :lol:  :lol:  :lol:  :lol:  :lol:
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Offline Eric

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"Snacks between meals" (winter wx 1/21-1/31)
« Reply #36 on: January 23, 2007, 12:49:16 PM »
I don't know.  If I'm looking at the models right (no guarantee that I am), it looks like the ensembles don't quite jive with the above diagrams.  

Can someone elaborate what the difference is between the ensembles and the operationals?
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Mississippi State B.S. Geosciences/Operational Meteorology student

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Offline Ron_Jarrell

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"Snacks between meals" (winter wx 1/21-1/31)
« Reply #37 on: January 23, 2007, 12:53:09 PM »
As mentioned in the other thread regarding reliable models for the south and similar patterns - here's the Canadian GEM for 120 hr:

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Views expressed are my personal views and opinions and should not take the place of official forecasts and warnings issued by the NWS and your local media.

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Offline Eric

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"Snacks between meals" (winter wx 1/21-1/31)
« Reply #38 on: January 23, 2007, 12:59:29 PM »
Folks over at Easternwx keep spoutin off about "the Euro being spot on 120 hrs out."  I know the Euro is a model, but what purpose does it serve?
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Mississippi State B.S. Geosciences/Operational Meteorology student

Nowcaster for Rutherford Co., Tennessee (@RuthSevereWx)

KJ4IXE

"I'm not going to get my head shot off in some far away land because you don't habla, comprende?"

"Sargeant, you get that contraband stogie out of my face before I shove it so far up your *** you'll have to set fire to your nose to light it."
                             - GSgt. Highway, "Heartbreak Ridge"

Offline snowdog

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"Snacks between meals" (winter wx 1/21-1/31)
« Reply #39 on: January 23, 2007, 01:05:22 PM »
What is your take on the 12z GEM image you posted Ron?  Looks to me like it is going to have to be watched over the next few days.  We are, as always, right on the line or actually a little north of it.  Looks like maybe it starts as some rain and changes over to frozen precip.
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Offline Ron_Jarrell

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"Snacks between meals" (winter wx 1/21-1/31)
« Reply #40 on: January 23, 2007, 01:18:01 PM »
Quote from: "snowdog"
What is your take on the 12z GEM image you posted Ron?  Looks to me like it is going to have to be watched over the next few days.  We are, as always, right on the line or actually a little north of it.  Looks like maybe it starts as some rain and changes over to frozen precip.

Well the 0Z GEM run had a similar solution with a s/w dropping out of the NW and ULL further S in the GoM. The difference that blew up the QPF was bringing that ULL N just a bit and overrunning the s/w with moisture. I think we stand a very good chance of seeing something frozen out of this. You know I looked at the vorticity for 126 hrs also and noticed the divergence as ULJ rounds the base of the trough. Very similar to the look of the maps I just got through looking at on the Jan 2003 Event Report from SC (divergence was maxed over TN that resulted in the now famous "surprise snow"). GFS never did pick up on the convective potential of that. Maybe we have something similar shaping up. Time will tell, but the GFS isn't going to show it accurately. Keep an eye on the GEM.
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Views expressed are my personal views and opinions and should not take the place of official forecasts and warnings issued by the NWS and your local media.

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Offline Ron_Jarrell

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"Snacks between meals" (winter wx 1/21-1/31)
« Reply #41 on: January 23, 2007, 01:31:38 PM »
Quote from: "Eric"
Folks over at Easternwx keep spoutin off about "the Euro being spot on 120 hrs out."  I know the Euro is a model, but what purpose does it serve?

Euro (European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasting) ECMWF is just a different model developed by the Europeans. Subscription price is pretty steep from what I understand. You can get a once a day product free. (I'm not 100% on how that subscription works, just that it costs).
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Views expressed are my personal views and opinions and should not take the place of official forecasts and warnings issued by the NWS and your local media.

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Offline Ron_Jarrell

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"Snacks between meals" (winter wx 1/21-1/31)
« Reply #42 on: January 23, 2007, 01:55:43 PM »
Those that want to still use GFS may find this table helpful for looking at pinpoint forecasts. I have a forecast sounding page also:
http://beta.wxcaster.com/text/1DegGFS/GFS_Kbna.txt
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Views expressed are my personal views and opinions and should not take the place of official forecasts and warnings issued by the NWS and your local media.

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Offline snowdog

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"Snacks between meals" (winter wx 1/21-1/31)
« Reply #43 on: January 23, 2007, 02:01:39 PM »
Thanks for the reply Ron.  You are a little more skilled than I at this and your pick up on the intricate details.  I havent gotten to the point of understanding the vorticity charts and their impact on forecasting.
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Offline Eric

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"Snacks between meals" (winter wx 1/21-1/31)
« Reply #44 on: January 23, 2007, 02:12:35 PM »
Quote
Low forming in western Gulf at 240 hrs, overrunning precip in the Ohio Valley and Southeast. 1032mb high over Maine, looks like snow/ice breaking out across OV and SE.

Day 10 looks very cold and is screaming for something to form in the Gulf and move northeast.

Found this to be an interesting read on Easternwx.  Surely they can't feel strongly about this 10 DAYS out.  

On another note, how strongly do you guys feel about this weekend?
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Mississippi State B.S. Geosciences/Operational Meteorology student

Nowcaster for Rutherford Co., Tennessee (@RuthSevereWx)

KJ4IXE

"I'm not going to get my head shot off in some far away land because you don't habla, comprende?"

"Sargeant, you get that contraband stogie out of my face before I shove it so far up your *** you'll have to set fire to your nose to light it."
                             - GSgt. Highway, "Heartbreak Ridge"
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