"Snacks between meals" (winter wx 1/21-1/31)

[Thundersnow]

So, nothing major (at this time) is expected from this weekend's storm system.  It may begin or end as a winter mix.  But, it may well only be a cold rain event.

However, models are indicating colder air in place next week (after the system on 1/21).  They also indicate possible disturbances/clippers moving through which could fire off some flurries or snow showers.  These mini-events can sometimes bring interesting results.

No "major" storm systems are indicated before the end of the month or about the first of February (at this time).  

But, we'll be watching for these "snacks" and also look for any snacks possibly turning into "meals."  

[Ron_Jarrell]

:lol:

[jmundie]

with the cold pattern setting in for two weeks at least or possibly the next month, its just a matter of time before we get a low to form on the stj to give us a dump of some size.

Just be patient.

I'm just hoping nothing happens like winter of 04 when columbia got 6 inches and nashville had flurries, freakin dry air from the north killed the sig accumulation we would have gotten.

[Chris]

Yes, we often get light accumulations out of clipper systems. I remember one particular system which occurred one evening during February 1995. A snow squall moved through and dumped about an 1" of snow in a hour. Although it was very brief-it looked like a "mini blizzard". By the way, things are getting pretty scary on the Nashvillewx site-lots of cursing, etc.

[jmundie]

yeah, they deleted several post on there, probably due to the profanity in the comments.

I know that Allyn guy posts here, so maybe he can respond, but he threatened to hack the blog and like an hour later, nashvilleistalking and nashvillewx went down for 30 minutes. Anyone know if that was just coincidence

[Thundersnow]

I figured emotions would start running high.  And, some people are just there to stir up trouble.  We call them "trolls" in netspeak.

The way to respond to these types with their taunts is not to respond on their level.  Actually, most of the time, the way to respond is not to respond at all.

There's a saying I heard recently that applies to this pretty well...

"If you get into a puking contest with a buzzard, he'll win every time... and he'll like it."   :roll:

[Thundersnow]

Chris,

I think I remember the February 1995 snow squalls.  I referred to it in another post (I knew it was some time in the mid 90s and that it was early February... I just couldn't remember what year).

At my house, we got over 2 inches out of one of those squalls.

[Thundersnow]

From the Nashville AFD this morning...

COLDER AIR WILL MOVE IN
 TUESDAY...AND EVEN COLDER THU WITH STRONGER CLIPPER DRIVEN FRONT.
 CHC SNOW SHOWERS THU/THU NIGHT WITH SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND H8
 TEMPS AROUND 12 C.

[snowdog]

At this point, those sn-- squalls would look like a major sn--storm to this sn--dog.  Is it me or does the GFS look pretty darn cold yet we dont really see any big artic cold, that being daytime highs sitting below 32 degrees.  We are still hitting around 40 to 45 in the 7 day forecast.  It just seems like there is all this talk of major cold yet when the 7 day forecast comes out it is mostly just average temps for this time of year.

[Thundersnow]

I know what you mean about the temps.  I'll read model discussions, forecasters, and ethusiasts that talk about the Arctic outbreak, etc.  Then, when I see the official forecast, I see 40s!

40s are normal for this time of year.  I would like to see something more impressive than that.  At least it's better than the 50s and 60s (and even 70s occasionally) we were stuck in for weeks since early December.

[lyngo]

As far as Alberta Clippers are concerned, it seems that it's been a few years since we've had a clipper that puts down a good inch or so of snow.  Hopefully the one coming down later next week will have enough moisture to at least whiten the ground.  I'm desperate for anything at this point!

If the pattern shapes up as the GFS and to some extent the Euro in the longer range, I think that we'll see the cold air out-perform the models.  The cold air we've had to date has initially entered the US further west then moved east.  If the models are correct, we should get a more direct discharge of arctic air into our area with less change to modify.  What this means for storms, I don't really know.  My gut tells me that we'll still see a storm with significant accums around here before winter's done.  

Holla.....

[Thundersnow]

Just to describe the thinking for a good, cold pattern late next week:

PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
834 AM EST FRI JAN 19 2007

VALID 12Z TUE JAN 23 2007 - 12Z FRI JAN 26 2007


PATTERN TRANSITION UNDER WAY TOWARDS A +PNA/-NAO PATTERN OVER NOAM
WEL AGREED UPON BY MODELS/ENSEMBLES. STRONG PAC RIDGING BUILDS EWD
INTO WRN CONUS WHLE AN AMPLIFYING SWRN CONUS TROF SHEARS OUT EWD
INTO CONTD STRONG SERN CONUS/SWRN ATLC RIDGING EARLY IN THE WEEK.
THE NRN STREAM FLOW BECOMES DOMINANT AS THE RIDGE BUILDS CARVING
OUT A DEEP ERN TROF MID TO LATE WEEK.

[Ron_Jarrell]

Yeah cold.

But that ridge in the W shuts off the Pacific and we can't get anything - nada - nothing cranked up in the GoM. I'd hate to have all that cold and nothing but clippers to look forward to.

[Coach B]

Not sure what all of this means, but any reference to 77 has to involve very cold weather.

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
130 PM EST FRI JAN 19 2007

VALID 12Z MON JAN 22 2007 - 12Z FRI JAN 26 2007


ONE OF THE 00Z D+8 GFS COMPOSITE ANALOGS LINK TO 19 JAN 1977. THIS
WAS RECORD EXTREME COLD OVER FLORIDA. INDIVIDUAL MODEL RUNS AND
FORECAST HT AND TEMP ANOMALY FIELDS WHILE WELL BELOW NORMAL ARE
NOT IN THE RANGE OF THIS RECORD EVENT BUT MEAN COMPOSITE SUGGESTS
A SIMILAR PATTERN WITH THE 1977 EVENT THE COLDEST OF THE COMPOSITE
SOLUTIONS OVER FL SRN. NEEDS TO BE WATCHED ESPECIALLY BY
AGRICULTURAL INTERESTS. WITH THE CURRENT PATTERN BASICALLY IN
PLACE FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE THE LONGER TERM MODEL RUN OUTS OF
THE GFS HAVE A SIMILAR EVEN COLDER COLD SURGE ABOUT AROUND 5 DAYS
LATER NEAR THE END OF THE MONTH.

...CENTRAL...
COLD AND DRY MON-WED. DIGGING CANADIAN ENERGY AIDS IN AMPLIFYING A
DEEP ERN CONUS TROF. WINDY COLD CONDS WITH OCNL SNOW ACROSS THE
UPPER MS VALLEY/NRN AND CENTRAL PLAINS WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOWS LATE
WED INTO FRI.

[Ron_Jarrell]

Jan 19 1977 was a huge disaster for ag interests in FL. Panama City and Pensacola saw 10'F and Orlando bottomed out at 28'F. Even Miami hit 31'F and it hit the freezing mark at 32'F for Miami Beach. COLD.