Winter Weekend Ahead

[Snowman]

Yea

I hope we can get this thing going . I have been going to www.storm2k.org for a few years mostly durning hurricane season . Now I go to talkweather.com also because there are more people from our area but it would be great if we can get alot of people from our area in here

Well, I will try and keep talking it up around places and posting the link so hopefully during weather events we can get reports from around the entire area.  

[Snowman]

This is very interesting. Not interesting however if you hate Ice Storms. Could be a rough weekend and start to next week.

   

This is also very interesting...Look at the snow depth!

[Woodvegas]

Nice site!

[Snowman]

Thanks WoodVegas, and I know you from Talk Weather so you better be prepared to help give us your input.  :lol:  Welcome and Enjoy!

[Big Country]

This is saying that we could get anywhere from 5-10 inches. What do ya'll think I about that?

[Snowman]

I still think this one is too close to call precip wise right now. I dont think we can rule out an all rain event an all snow event or a mix of both, IMO.

[Ron_Jarrell]

Weatherdude: Snow depth 25 cm!!!!!!!!!! That's 9.8 inches!

Holy snowblower Batman!

Course I'm sure there's a problem with the model there.

[David]

Yea as always we will be on the edge a few degrees here or there will make the difference . I will say I do not think we will be getting 5 - 10 inch's of snow or ice  " God I hope I am wrong about the Snow "  
 
I want to see what the models do tomorrow before I make a call

[Big Country]

The snow looked like it was predicted for early next week, I thought it was supposed to be this weekend...

[David]

incase you didn't catch this on WKRN here is the NWS Nashville  Blog

http://categoryfive.blogspot.com/

[Snowman]

incase you didn't catch this on WKRN here is the NWS Nashville Blog

http://categoryfive.blogspot.com/

Mark A. Rose does a awesome job with that blog. Stop by and check it out some time. Very interesting reading!

I will contact Mark about the weather forum, so hopefully we can get his expertise on the site as well!

[David]

NWS Update

DISCUSSION...
WILL LIKELY UPDATE TO REMOVE/REWORD TIME SENSITIVE WORDING IN
THE CURRENT PACKAGE FOR TONIGHT. BEYOND TONIGHT...MODELS SEEM TO BE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE MIDSTATE EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. COLD ARCTIC HIGH BEHIND THIS FRONT WITH A 20+ DEGREE
DROP FROM THU MAX TEMP TO THE FRI MAX TEMP. HIGHS ONLY IN THE 30S
FOR SAT AND SUN. OF COURSE...THE REAL STORY IS PRECIP TYPE. AS COLD
AIR POURS INTO THE AREA...THE LOWER LAYERS BECOME A BIT COLDER THAN
AIR ALOFT. THE GFS SOUNDING ON SAT MORNING IS A GOOD EXAMPLE. IT
DISPLAYS A "WARM" NOSE WITH SUBFREEZING TEMPS BELOW. HOWEVER...
THE "WARM NOSE" JUST BARELY PASSES THE FREEZING MARK. IF THE
MODELS AT HOUR 66 ARE DEAD ON THEN THIS WILL LIKELY BE A MIX OF
FREEZING RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW...OUR TYPICAL "WINTRY MIX". HOWEVER
IF THE MODELS ARE ONLY A DEGREE CELSIUS OFF EITHER WAY WE COULD
VARY FROM ALL SNOW TO SIGNIFICANT FREEZING RAIN AMOUNTS. FOR SAT PM
THROUGH SUN AM THE MODELS SEEM TO ARGUE FOR MAINLY SNOW. BUT THEN
AGAIN...AN ERROR OF 2C AT 700-800MB AND THINGS COULD BE ENTIRELY
DIFFERENT. BY SUN NGT AT MIDNIGHT...THE MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE AGAIN
LAYING NEXT TO THE ZERO DEGREE ISOTHERM. SIGNIFICANT DRYING IS
INDICATED BY MON NOON...REDUCING PRECIP CHANCES SIGNIFICANTLY.

THE CURRENT PACKAGE SEEMS TO HAVE GOOD STATEMENT OF REASONABLE
EXPECTATIONS...GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES AND ERRORS IN OUR FORECAST
MODELS. WILL UPDATE FOR TONIGHTS CLOUD CONDITIONS...OTHERWISE
NO CHANGES.
&&

[Ron_Jarrell]

I'm just an amateur, but I'm with Justin so far. The models have been warming up just a little from the last couple of runs (ETA, GFS), but obviously that arctic High over the midwest is going to quickly plunge our temps behind the cold front. I think by Saturday around or just before dawn we could see some frzg rn from I40 north with the cold PBL. I do think the arctic air will become deeper by Sat eve and precip coming in Sun and Mon will be snow.

Just want to be "on the record" for what I had said this afternoon and this morning on nashvillewx.  

And if the models change, I'll just delete this post  :lol:

[Snowman]

Quote:
I'm just an amateur, but I'm with Justin so far. The models have been warming up just a little from the last couple of runs (ETA, GFS), but obviously that arctic High over the midwest is going to quickly plunge our temps behind the cold front. I think by Saturday around or just before dawn we could see some frzg rn from I40 north with the cold PBL. I do think the arctic air will become deeper by Sat eve and precip coming in Sun and Mon will be snow.


Just want to be "on the record" for what I had said this afternoon and this morning on nashvillewx.  

And if the models change, I'll just delete this post

Ron do you have a program to make maps. You are on the few of us that know a little about what is going on. I would like to get some maps going for those who dont know about models and this weather terminology. I will try and post mine tomorrow afternoon. Just wondering if you can spin up a map?

[Ron_Jarrell]

Great, looks like the new ETA shows MUCH less precip than ALL past runs. Only shows precip Fri nite into Sat morning. No Sunday precip at all. In fact the High will be close enough to really start drying us out with rising heights. This is totally different from other models so far, so not sure if it's a fluke or not.