Winter Weekend Ahead

[Snowman]

Looks like this weekend could be a rough one. Here is a clip of what Justin Bruce from WKRN News 2 had to say this afternoon on Nashvillewx.com.

At this point in time, it's too early to say whether we'll have just a cold rain, some ice, some sleet, wet snowflakes...you get the picture! Since this is the blog and not our "official forecast"...I don't mind telling you that my initial guess leans toward the rain and possible ice scenario. You won't hear us say that over the air just yet, but that's what little ol' Justin is thinking. I believe the models will struggle to accurately depict the cold air in the low-levels, so watching the forecast soundings will be clutch over the next few days. For those who like to follow the models on their own: this isn't the type of situation where a simple glance at the 540 thickness line or the 850mb 0 degree line will guarantee your precip type.

Anyone have any thoughts on this possible event?

[Ron_Jarrell]

Nice ubb site you've got set up here.

I'm just an amateur, but I'm with Justin so far. The models have been warming up just a little from the last couple of runs (ETA, GFS), but obviously that arctic High over the midwest is going to quickly plunge our temps behind the cold front. I think by Saturday around or just before dawn we could see some frzg rn  from I40 north with the cold PBL. I do think the arctic air will become deeper by Sat eve and precip coming in Sun and Mon will be snow. During the day Sat. may be rn as daytime highs should be above 0'C

[Snowman]

Thanks Ron!

I just figured it was time someone got us a forum for just us Tennessee Folks. I appreciate your opinion and time. Hope you enjoy!

[David]

I don't know about that if it turns into a trend  , but the models have been  showing a Storm for a while now with frozen precip .   We will see what happens I am hoping for a snow event as we all are I am sure but I think its going to end up a MIX

[David]

Or the Dreaded COLD RAIN !!

[drpepperfool]

Wow this one seems like a DOOSIE to me again.. I dont know what to think... This winter has to be one of the craziest ive seen in a while. 70 one day and 31 and snow... So, I really dont have much to say one this one. We will just have to wait and see on this one I think. PLEASE NO ICE!

[Snowman]

I agree with David, I would love to see SNOW, but it does not look likely at this time that we will just see Snow. I would much rather see plain rain than Ice. Right now not many people concerned with an ice storm when Highs today were in the 60's. We will have to watch the 00z model runs tonight to see more about a possible trend of warmer temperatures.  :wink:

[drpepper_fool]

After all last weekend. I am so ready for spring/summer.. If you couldnt get plain ole snow im ready for it to get WaRm!!!!! But today was a very very nice day. Im going to miss it this weekend!

[David]

Hey Weatherdude

I was thinking of starting a forum for Nashville also but now that you have there is no need .
I was going to make a weather website tho with a forum and if I can remember what its called I will give you a name of a free weather portal if you decided to make a site with it also . Its free

[Ron_Jarrell]

The model that had the BEST handle on last weekend's storm was the NASA model. They only have 48 hours out, but here is Fri morning behind the front forecast sounding for Nashville:



Notice the very shallow cold air being overrun with much warmer air? Watch this model for the soundings tomorrow and you'll get a good idea what will happen. After all, we're just throwing out our discussion opinions right? If we keep waiting on tomorrow's models that increases accuracy, but part of the fun of being an amateur is coming up with your own ideas, forecasts, and discussing the thinking behind it.

[Snowman]

Hey Weatherdude

I was thinking of starting a forum for Nashville also but now that you have there is no need .
I was going to make a weather website tho with a forum and if I can remember what its called I will give you a name of a free weather portal if you decided to make a site with it also . Its free

Yeah sure, If you can remember it we will see what we can do! I am glad there are other Tennesseans with interest in a Tennessee weather forum. Welcome and Enjoy!

[Snowman]

If we keep waiting on tomorrow's models that increases accuracy, but part of the fun of being an amateur is coming up with your own ideas, forecasts, and discussing the thinking behind it.

Yes this is true and Please feel free to post call maps of what exactly you think will happen. Maps really put things in to prespective.

[David]

Oh man I was not saying anything like you were wrong or anything I was just saying I don't like to look at the models until there is a trend is all .  I am no expert by any means . Has any of you played with the BUFKIT yet ?

[David]

Yea

I hope we can get this thing going . I have been going to www.storm2k.org for a few years mostly durning hurricane season . Now I go to talkweather.com also because there are more people from our area but it would be great if we can get alot of people from our area in here

[David]

The model that had the BEST handle on last weekend's storm was the NASA model. They only have 48 hours out, but here is Fri morning behind the front forecast sounding for Nashville:



Notice the very shallow cold air being overrun with much warmer air? Watch this model for the soundings tomorrow and you'll get a good idea what will happen. After all, we're just throwing out our discussion opinions right? If we keep waiting on tomorrow's models that increases accuracy, but part of the fun of being an amateur is coming up with your own ideas, forecasts, and discussing the thinking behind it.

Looks like a ICESTORM setup or COLD rain