Moderate Fall Storm! 10/10-10/12. Storms, Snow, Cold!

[Woodvegas]

IF the 12Z GFS were to verify we would have a new record low for the date. Record lows for Nashville are 33F on 10/12 and 31F on 10/13. MOS from the 10/7 12Z GFS has it at 29F. It would be the first time in 100 years that it dropped to 29F this early in October. The earliest that it has ever hit 29F in October (that we have records for) was October 11, 1906 and the 2nd earliest was October 16, 1876.

[servocrow]

HEY I NEVER KNEW HOW TO DO THAT with the right click and property thingy!!!!  WOW!!!

THANKS!!!

Yeah...can't wait to see how this pans out for the rest of the week...

Oh yeah...and I'm goin' Krogerin' EARLY...

 :lol:  :lol:  :lol:  :lol:  :lol:  :lol:  :lol:  :lol:  :lol:

I gotta decorate the outside of the house this week and continue working on Christmas prezzie making!!!

BUSY BUSY BUSY!!

And when I say "decorate the outside of the house" I do mean HALLOWEEN and NOT Christmas....not yet...That starts....the first week in NOVEMBER!!!!  

[Ron_Jarrell]

Alrighty then. Fixed the 'x' problem.

I'm not on board with the 'Chicken Little' model runs yet either. It's just way too historic of a model run to buy into this far out.

And servo, my wife has already had Halloween decorations up for a week. I'm glad it's her doing it.... I hate Halloween. Another waste of money brought to you by corporate hype machines.  :roll:

[servocrow]

Well BRAVO to your WIFE!!!!!

I would have had the OUTSIDE completed last weekend, BUT I thought my oldest niece was going to be able to come down and stay a few days with me next week, so I postponed it...She was going to help me this year.

I started the INSIDE just after LABOR DAY...OH YEAH BABY!!!!!!  This week, I HOPE....I'll have pictures up so you may see the lengths of my madness....

 :wink:

[shaq725]

will someone plaese post something about the upcoming weather event

[Snowman]

Nothing big going to happen. Rain and then some cooler temps. Up north though, they will be seeing some snow so winter is a going slowly.

My Forecast... For Middle Tennessee

Tuesday-       81*/62* Partly Sunny
Wednesday-  74*/54* Few Showers
Thursday-     60*/38* Few Showers
Friday-          57*/36* Clearing Out and Sunny
Saturday-      65*/45* Sunny

The mountains of East Tennessee at higher elevations may see this system taper off as a few snow showers.

***Special Note***- News 2 Met. Davis Nolan says he can't rule out the possibility of a flurry on the plateau Thursday Night. Read about it over at www.nashvillewx.com

[Snowman]

Winter Storm Watch
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
423 PM EDT MON OCT 9 2006

...FIRST WINTER STORM TO AFFECT WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN BEGINNING
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...

.A STRONG COLD FRONT OVER CENTRAL CANADA IS EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTH
ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN ON WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM ON THIS
FRONT OVER UPPER MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY MORNING...THEN DEEPEN RAPIDLY
AS IT HEADS INTO NORTHEAST ONTARIO WEDNESDAY EVENING. AS THIS
OCCURS...RAIN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL CHANGE TO SNOW OVER
WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...COLD AIR COMING
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR WILL GENERATE PLENTY OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS. WITH THE LOW DEEPENING...VERY WINDY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. AS THE WINDS TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST THURSDAY
MORNING...LOOK FOR THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO FOCUS ITSELF OVER THE
KEWEENAW PENINSULA.

MIZ004-010-084-100400-
/O.NEW.KMQT.WS.A.0007.061011T2000Z-061012T0600Z/
BARAGA-IRON-SOUTHERN HOUGHTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...L'ANSE...IRON RIVER...KENTON...SIDNAW
323 PM CDT MON OCT 9 2006 /423 PM EDT MON OCT 9 2006/

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MARQUETTE HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

LOOK FOR RAIN TO MIX WITH SNOW EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...THEN
CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. BY SUNSET ON
WEDNESDAY...2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE...GREATEST FROM
WATTON TO KENTON AND PELKIE. LESS THAN AN INCH OF SNOW IS EXPECTED
IN IRON RIVER AND CRYSTAL FALLS. AN ADDITIONAL 2 TO 4 INCHES IS
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HEAVIEST NORTHWEST OF IRON RIVER. IN
ADDITION TO THE SNOW...WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS AROUND 30
MPH WILL RESULT IN VERY LOW VISIBILITIES IN THE SNOW.

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THE LATEST FORECASTS.

[servocrow]

Here's the Hydrometeorological Map for this morning:

[Snowman]

Servocrow, you see that snow coming down from Canada. Yay! Also see some storms sneaking up from the southwest. I will be gone tomorrow through Friday to Gatlinburg so hopefully the storms arent too strong.

[Ron_Jarrell]

I found today's SPC synopsis for Day2 to be interesting info for us wxgeeks.

...SYNOPSIS...
   SIGNIFICANT PATTERN SHIFT UNDERWAY...AS UPPER LOW NOW INTENSIFYING
   OVER NRN NV RETROGRADES OFFSHORE CA.  ANOTHER UPPER LOW -- NOW
   EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER FAR NRN MB -- WILL DIG
   SWD...PHASE WITH OTHER SHORTWAVE PERTURBATIONS -- AND
   ENLARGE/INTENSIFY MARKEDLY.  BY END OF DAY-2 PERIOD...THIS PROCESS
   WILL RESULT IN LARGE...DEEP...COLD CYCLONIC VORTEX COVERING MOST OF
   CENTRAL/ERN CONUS AND CENTERED OVER UPPER GREAT LAKES. SHORTWAVE
   TROUGH -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER WRN NM -- IS
   FCST TO EJECT EWD AND DEAMPLIFY DAY-1...AMIDST STRENGTHENING LARGE
   SCALE HEIGHT GRADIENTS ASSOCIATED WITH DIGGING POLAR VORTEX.
   
   AT SFC...FRONTAL ZONE NOW ANALYZED FROM NY...SWWD OVER OH AND OZARKS
   TO SW TX -- WILL BE OVERCOME BY INTENSE/SECONDARY COLD FRONTAL SURGE
   DURING THIS PERIOD.  ASSOCIATED SFC CYCLOGENESIS SHOULD OCCUR OVER
   UPPER MS VALLEY REGION BY 11/12Z...WITH RESULTANT CYCLONE LIFTING
   NEWD ACROSS LS/UPPER MI REGION INTO ONT...BECOMING VERTICALLY
   STACKED WITH MIDLEVEL VORTEX...AND OCCLUDING.  BY END OF
   PERIOD...SFC COLD FRONT SHOULD EXTEND FROM SWRN QUE OR SERN
   ONT...SWD ACROSS CAROLINAS...THEN SWWD ACROSS DEEP S TX.  SREF DATA
   UNAVAILABLE...AND SPECTRAL MODEL STILL APPEARS TO BE TOO SLOW WITH
   COLD FRONT OVER TX.  HOWEVER...PREVIOUSLY TOO-AGGRESSIVE OPERATIONAL
   WRF HAS SLOWED CONSIDERABLY IN 24 HOURS AND IS CLOSER TO ECMWF/UKMET
   CONSENSUS...WHICH REMAINS FAVORED FRONTAL SCENARIO.
   
   ...OH VALLEY TO CENTRAL GULF COAST...
   SCATTERED TSTMS IN BANDS AND CLUSTERS SHOULD FORM WITHIN OUTLOOK
   AREA DURING DAYLIGHT HOURS...MAIN SVR RISK BEING DAMAGING GUSTS.
   SVR POTENTIAL SHOULD DIMINISH CONSIDERABLY AFTER DARK...PARTICULARLY
   FROM TN NWD...AS ALREADY MRGL INSTABILITY WEAKENS.  SFC-BASED CAPE
   WILL BE LIMITED ACROSS MUCH OF THIS AREA BY COMBINATION OF WEAK
   MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES -- JUST ABOVE MOIST-ADIABATIC -- AND PRESENCE
   OF CLOUD COVER TO LIMIT SFC SOLAR HEATING.  HOWEVER...EXPECT CINH TO
   BE WEAK AS WELL...PERMITTING CONVECTION TO DEVELOP IN ONE OR MORE
   LINEAR ZONES OF FAVORABLE CONVERGENCE ALONG/AHEAD OF SFC COLD FRONT.
   
   IN OH VALLEY/LE REGION...WEAK MIDLEVEL ASCENT -- ASSOCIATED WITH
   EJECTING REMAINS OF CURRENT SWRN TROUGH -- MAY PROVIDE SOME COOLING
   ALOFT IN SUPPORT OF CONVECTION.  FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST ABOUT 30 DEG
   MEAN WIND COMPONENT ACROSS FRONTAL ZONE IS POSSIBLE...SUPPORTING
   NARROW BAND OF CONVECTION MOVING NEWD INTO ENVIRONMENT OF SFC DEW
   POINTS MID-UPPER 50S...AND AROUND 500 J/KG MLCAPES.
   
   PREFRONTAL LOW LEVEL FLOW GENERALLY SHOULD VEER WITH SWD
   EXTENT...RELATED TO INCREASING DISTANCE FROM LARGEST PRESSURE FALLS
   THAT ARE FCST TO OCCUR AHEAD OF EJECTING SFC CYCLONE.
   HOWEVER...GIVEN STRENGTH OF GRADIENT FLOW ALOFT...DEEP-LAYER SHEAR
   STILL WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SVR.  PRIND SFC MOISTURE AND POTENTIAL
   FOR AREAS OF DIABATIC HEATING WILL INCREASE SWD.  NEARLY
   UNIDIRECTIONAL DEEP-LAYER WIND PROFILES ARE FCST...SUPPORTING MORE
   MULTICELLULAR/LINEAR MODES...ALTHOUGH ANY DISCRETE DEVELOPMENT WILL
   HAVE SUPERCELL POTENTIAL.  RELATIVE MIN IN SVR POTENTIAL MAY EXIST
   BETWEEN OH VALLEY AND GULF STATES REGIMES...WHERE CONVERGENCE AND
   HEATING EACH REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK...HOWEVER THIS IS TOO UNCERTAIN
   AND MESOSCALE DEPENDENT TO WARRANT BREAKING OUTLOOK INTO TWO
   DISTINCT CATEGORICAL AREAS ATTM.

[Snowman]

Yes, that is what I think the general thinking has become Ron. Maybe some severe weather now, but of course, No Major Outbreak. I am just ready fokr the cold to prevail.

[servocrow]

Yeah, this is so tricky for our neck of the woods ESPECIALLY.

Still looks like a windy system....WHATEVER happens...Can you imagine if the core to that low was dipping further south?

EEEK!!!! :shock:

[mook]

I stumbled onto this site yesterday.  Been a bit of a weather buff since I was a kid.  Don't like the tornadoes; have had too many close calls in West TN growing up and up here in the Nashville area over the last nine years.  Really like this forum, very informative and detailed.  According to everything I've been seeing about tomorrow, is it safe to say this system isn't living up to previous hype last week, and that we won't see much in the way of severe potential tomorrow, and if any severe weather occurs, it will be mainly high winds associated with a line that develops with the front?  Great site...

[Ron_Jarrell]

First, WELCOME TO THE SITE MOOK!

Ok, to answer your question, I see this as a gust front event just as I said a few days ago. I think any severe cells will occur south of TN. Isolated severe in TN. This is a system that is still developing though, so bigger surprises have happened. The time to watch for severe wx though is when the polar vort retreats this wknd and shortwave ejects out of the SW (see topic Svr wx Oct 16-18 ).

Again, welcome to the site.

[kailynleto | Nightwolf]

From the information I am seeing, it certainly seems that way.  Wind seems to be the major threat with this.  I don't know if the MLCAPE values will be high enough to support hail, and I certainly don't think we have the moisture to support tornadoes, if severe weather at all, save the winds.