If I recall correctly, 2002-03 was an El Niņo year. Generally El Niņo means that we are slightly warmer and wetter (as I recall in 1997-98), but if memory serves me correctly, we could be in for it this year. 1982-83, through my research, was unusually mild, as in the coldest temperature we recorded was 16°, and 1997-1998 was quite warm, and I know this because I can only recall schools closing once that year.
I still think we're in for an ice storm in the next year or two. I would actually expect an ice storm to be more likely during a La Niņa year, but it can happen during an El Niņo year, probably. We had a close call on December 4-5, 2002 (actually, the only thing missing were the frozen roads around here).
I have to view models until my head explodes to get any kind of thought on this upcoming season. 1997-98 was a strong El Niņo year, and so was 1982-83; I believe 1994, 1995, and 2002-2003 were weak years. If this year is moderate, we could see conditions a little closer to normal than the normal year or a cooler, ever-so-slightly wetter year like 2002-03.[/list]
