Major Winter Weather News Release - NOAA

[Ron_Jarrell]

MAJOR WINTER WEATHER IMPACT NEWS RELEASE FROM NOAA!

NEW YORK (Reuters) -- El Nino, an extreme warming of equatorial waters in the Pacific Ocean that wreaks havoc with world weather conditions, has formed and will last into 2007, the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said Wednesday.

El Nino has already helped make the Atlantic hurricane season milder than expected, said a NOAA forecaster.

"The weak El Nino is helping to explain why the hurricane season is less than we expected. El Ninos tend to suppress hurricane activity in the Atlantic," said Gerry Bell, a hurricane forecaster for NOAA.

The NOAA's Climate Prediction Center said the El Nino probably will spur warmer-than-average temperatures this winter over western and central Canada and the western and northern United States.

It said El Nino also will cause wetter-than-average conditions in the U.S. Gulf Coast and Florida, and spark dry conditions in the Ohio valley, the Pacific Northwest and most U.S. islands in the tropical Pacific.

In Asia and South America, the last severe El Nino killed hundreds of people and caused billions of dollars in damage as crops shriveled across the Asia-Pacific basin. This El Nino has caused drier-than-average conditions across Indonesia, Malaysia and most of the Philippines.

Indonesia is the most populous Moslem country with over 200 million people, while the Philippines have nearly 90 million. Both are major importers of U.S. grains.

The CPC Web site said surface temperatures were substantially warmer than normal by early September in the Pacific. Scientists detect formation of El Ninos by monitoring sea surface temperatures with a system of buoys.

"Currently, weak El Nino conditions exist, but there is a potential for this event to strengthen into a moderate event by winter," Vernon Kousky, the chief El Nino expert at NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, said in a statement.

"The latest ... predictions indicate El Nino conditions for the remainder of 2006 and into the northern hemisphere spring [of] 2007," the CPC Web site explained.

El Nino, which means "little boy" in Spanish, hits once every three years or so. Anchovy fishermen in South America noticed the phenomenon in the 19th century and named it for the Christ child since it appeared around Christmas, and it normally peaks late in the year.

El Nino hinders hurricanes
One immediate impact of the El Nino is during the current Atlantic hurricane season, which follows on the heels of the record 28 storms and 15 hurricanes which struck in 2005.

Last year's howlers included monsters like Hurricanes Katrina, Rita and Wilma. But this El Nino apparently has helped hinder storm formation in 2006. So far, there has only been seven tropical storms and two hurricanes halfway through the hurricane season, which begins June 1 and ends November 30.

Scientists said El Ninos disrupt storm formation because it allows wind shear to rip apart thunderstorms in the center of the hurricanes, reducing power and intensity as a result.

U.S. Northeast in for milder winter
An El Nino also usually leads to milder winter weather in the U.S. Northeast, the top heating oil market in the world.

Bell said scientists will have a better idea in the fall how long this El Nino will last. "There's no way to say at this time how strong it is going to be. It's too early," he said.

The last severe El Nino struck in 1997-1998. The weather phenomenon caused searing drought in Indonesia, Australia and the Philippines while causing rampant flooding in Ecuador and Chile, the world's top producer of copper.

[Ron_Jarrell]

For those wondering what a strong El Nino holds in store for Middle TN, here is a journal article written by Bobby Boyd of the NWS.

El Niņo of 1982-83 and Nashville, Tennessee's Winter Temperature and Precipitation
Bobby Boyd
NWSO Nashville, TN

1. Introduction

A strong warm episode (El Niņo) is underway (Fall 1997) in the tropical Pacific Ocean. From the El Niņo/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Diagnostic Advisory 97/9 issued by the Climate Prediction Center/NCEP on October 10, 1997, the September sea surface temperatures remained well above normal in the central and eastern Pacific.1 The anomalies ranged from 1oC above normal from the International Dateline to the South American and Mexican coasts to 4oC above normal along the equator east of 120oW.

These large positive anomalies are comparable to those observed during the strongest El Niņo in the last 50 years which occurred in 1982-83.

2. Climatological Data

TEMPERATURE

The winter of 1982-83 was unusually mild in Nashville. The average winter temperature was 3.6oF above normal. The coldest temperature during the winter was only 16oF. Nashville experienced its warmest Christmas on record in 1982 with a daily average temperature of 68oF.2

PRECIPITATION

Precipitation during the winter of 1982-83 was 92 percent of normal.3 December was above normal with both January and February below normal.

Snowfall for the winter season 1982-83 totaled 1.5 inches which was well below the average seasonal snowfall for Nashville of 9.2 inches.4

3. Conclusions

During the 1982-83 El Niņo episode, Nashville, Tennessee experienced an unusually mild winter, with each of the winter months above normal in temperature. The winter as a whole was slightly drier than normal, with only December wetter than normal. Snowfall for the winter was well below normal.

[Ron_Jarrell]

And implications for E TN by a Morristown NWS forecaster:

El Nino Effects in East Tennessee
by Joanne Labounty

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Much has been made about the strong El Nino conditions that have been developing across the eastern Pacific over the last several months. Many people have heard about the potential effects from El Nino for such places as California, the gulf coast states and the southwest United States. This has many of us across east Tennessee wondering just what is an El Nino and will it affect the weather across our area? El Nino is the invasion from time to time of warm surface water from the equatorial region of the Pacific basin to the eastern Pacific and along the coasts of Peru, Ecuador and northern Chile. Before 1950 this event was of interest only to local fisherman of these countries due to the biological productivity of these waters. In the mid 1970's international concern shifted to El Nino's proposed connections to climate anomalies (deviations from the average) that occur in other parts of the world either before during or after an El Nino event. The scientific community now seeks to establish relationships between El Nino and events such as droughts of floods that occur around the world.

Signs indicate that the El Nino of 1997-1998 is shaping up to be one of the strongest on record. There have been three other strong El Ninos since 1957 (1957-1958, 1972-1973 and 1982-1983). After examining the data from these strong El Ninos and several weaker ones that have taken place, there appears to be no definite or clear cut effects for the weather across our area due to El Nino. Four out the last six El Ninos (including the three strong events) had above normal precipitation totaled for the entire El Nino period. But there were dry to very dry periods during those years as well. As far as what kind of weather we can expect for this upcoming winter, it remains to be seen. Many different types of winters have occurred during El Ninos. Like any other year there have been colder and dryer than normal winters, warmer and wetter than normal winters and so on. However four out of the last six El Ninos had below normal winter temperatures (with one above normal and one normal). Three our of the last six El Ninos had below normal winter precipitation (with one normal and two above normal).

Snowfall during strong El Nino winters (such as the upcoming winter of 1997-1998) has tended to drop significantly from the previous winter. It appears that the type of weather we can expect this winter and in the months that follow is like any other year across east Tennessee. Anything can happen. The current long range outlook for east Tennessee from the Climate Prediction Center is for near normal precipitation for the October through December period followed by below normal precipitation for January through April. Temperatures are forecasted to be near normal for October though December and slightly below normal during the January to April time frame. More detailed information about the effect of El Nino on east Tennessee weather can be found in the graphs and tables below.

[Ron_Jarrell]