Tropical Storm Gaston

[Adam]

Meanwhile, there is a new invest in the Atlantic. Invest 98 just came off of Africa.  That makes four tropical systems in the Atlantic at the same time.

[toastido]

Meanwhile, there is a new invest in the Atlantic. Invest 98 just came off of Africa.  That makes four tropical systems in the Atlantic at the same time.

An Invest isn't a tropical system yet.  It's just something that they believe is worth watching for possible tropical system development.  This one is at 10%.  No need to fret just yet.

EDIT: Not to mention, Danielle has become post-tropical which means she's no longer a tropical system, so even if this invest were to come to fruition, we're still only looking at 3, max.

[toastido]

Now it's up to 50%:

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT WED SEP 1 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
EARL...LOCATED ABOUT 145 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF GRAND TURK...AND
ON TROPICAL STORM FIONA...LOCATED ABOUT 210 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.

1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 600 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS IS SHOWING SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AND THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.  THERE IS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
NNNN

[toastido]

80%

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT WED SEP 1 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
EARL...LOCATED ABOUT 180 MILES EAST OF SAN SALVADOR...AND
ON TROPICAL STORM FIONA...LOCATED ABOUT 70 MILES NORTHEAST OF
BARBUDA IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.

1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 800 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS HAVE INCREASED IN ORGANIZATION OVERNIGHT. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AND A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION COULD FORM AT ANY TIME. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...80
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA/BLAKE
NNNN

[Crockett]

This baby is getting its act together in a hurry.

[toastido]

Say Hello to TD 9..

000
WTNT34 KNHC 011453
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE ADVISORY NUMBER   1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL     AL092010
1100 AM AST WED SEP 01 2010

...ANOTHER TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.4N 35.8W
ABOUT 830 MI...1335 KM WSW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
ABOUT 1720 MI...2770 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 35.8 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR. THE
CYCLONE SHOULD MOVE TOWARD THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST AT A SLOWER
FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST AND IT IS LIKELY THAT THE
CYCLONE WILL BECOME A TROPICAL STORM DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA/BLAKE

[toastido]

Gaston is born.

000
WTNT34 KNHC 012040
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM GASTON ADVISORY NUMBER   2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL     AL092010
500 PM AST WED SEP 01 2010

...THE SEVENTH NAMED STORM OF THE SEASON FORMS...THE FOURTH TROPICAL
STORM IN THE LAST ELEVEN DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.9N 37.0W
ABOUT 895 MI...1440 KM WSW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
ABOUT 1635 MI...2635 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GASTON WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 37.0 WEST. GASTON IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR.  A WEST OR
WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION WITH A SIGNIFICANT DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 40 MPH...65
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  SLOW STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[toastido]

Gaston dissipated yesterday.  Today his remnant low has a 40% chance of redevelopment.

[Cameron K.]

Gaston dissipated yesterday.  Today his remnant low has a 40% chance of redevelopment.

Looks like Ex Gaston might be resurrecting into a new storm. 

1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INCREASED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
REMNANT LOW OF GASTON...WHICH IS LOCATED ABOUT HALFWAY BETWEEN THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AND THE LESSER ANTILLES.  ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION COULD RE-FORM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD AT AROUND 10 MPH.  THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE
...60 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE AGAIN
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

[Cameron K.]

Ex Gaston is still fighting a lot of shear and lack of moisture, however, it looks like the system should find favorable conditions in the next day or so. Models have been tracking this storm into the gulf and the GFDL strengthens it into a major hurricane. Of course it's all speculation right now, but I'm interested in watching this one.