2010-2011 Winter weather outlook for Tennessee.

[Adam]

Man am i glad i started this thread , i wouldnt of known any of this stuff without you guys. Thanks.

[John1122]

I love to talk about winter weather and will be posting much more often as winter approaches. Weather in general has sort of been a tradition in my family starting with my grandpa over 100 years ago.

Tennessee, and especially East Tennessee has so many microclimates that it takes years just to get to know your own area and that makes it hard to forecast short term, let alone long term.

This past winter I happened to be in one of the jackpot spots and ended up with over 40 inches of snowfall.

Like back in December when most areas around Campbell Co got rain and we got very heavy snow. Usually we get similar weather to Scott Co. Cumberland Co etc but in that instance I had nearly 8 inches of heavy wet snow and they stayed mostly rain.

Got lucky again in the Jan 29th-30th event, stayed all snow and ended up with over 12 inches while places like Crossville switched to freezing rain.

[StormNine]

A pretty fall outlook I have, using a clip art.  Gives a little bit of hints about my thoughts of winter, which I will post Late Sept/Early Oct.

For Nashville, I will go with
Sept: +4.0F
Oct: +2.9F
Nov: +1.2F

Analogs are tough, but for fall I leaned a little bit towards 73,88,98,07.  The following winters are more than likely going to be the best analogs for this winter. 

Could have an active fall severe weather season from Mid October to Late November, as the northern stream starts to come in conflict with the SE ridge.

Edit: Looking further at 88 looking using climate division maps.  it doesn't match well, but for the winter 88-89 could be a great analog.  Mostly for the fall something like 73 or 07, I am thinking.

[StormNine]

  Iowa is already feeling the impacts of that northern stream with the flooding. Minnesota now leads the nation in tornadoes due to the more active than normal northern stream. This is why there are the severe weather concerns heading into fall and winter, when this thing starts to impact us. 

[tennessee storm09]

you got that right man. when that northern stream starts to shift south later, its going to be game on  for severe weather. and the se ridge will buckle most artic fronts, making the battle zone near our vincinty most likely.

[InMemphis]

Shelby County Schools were closed three days in a row during late January/early February of 96. On a Tuesday night it had just started sleeting when my mom and I left to pick a friend of mine up to work on a science project. We had picked him up and it seemed to be getting bad so instead of going to the library we went to the old Seesels Grocery Store in Germantown to pick up some things.   We ran into my grandparents who told us we needed to get him home quickly or he could be staying the night at our house. We headed toward his house with the radio on and several area basketball games and events were postponed. My mom was scared but we got him home safely and headed back to our house without incident. It was an interesting night and week to say the least.

[StormNine]

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
1226 PM MDT THU AUG 12 2010

...WINTERLIKE CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED FOR HIGH ELEVATIONS OF GLACIER
PARK AND BOB MARSHALL WILDERNESS TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY...

.A RELATIVELY COLD STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTH FROM
CANADA DURING THIS EVENING...BRINGING PRECIPITATION AND LOWERING
SNOW LEVELS ACROSS THE GLACIER PARK AND BOB MARSHALL REGIONS.

MTZ002-043-130630-
/O.NEW.KMSO.WW.Y.0106.100813T0600Z-100813T1800Z/
WEST GLACIER REGION-POTOMAC/SEELEY LAKE REGION-
1226 PM MDT THU AUG 12 2010

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO
NOON MDT FRIDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MISSOULA HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY ABOVE 7000 FEET FOR SNOW ACCUMULATION...WHICH IS
IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON MDT FRIDAY.

* IMPACTS/TIMING: SNOW LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY
  MORNING.

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS: UP TO 3 INCHES ABOVE 7000 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW
WILL CAUSE PRIMARILY TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. THOSE PLANNING TO
ADVENTURE INTO THE BACK COUNTRY SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR UNSEASONABLY
COLD WEATHER AND SNOWFALL.

&&

$$

Maybe     We will see this nearby 4 months from now.

For now, that is the closet that will get to us.

[Cameron K.]

Maybe     We will see this nearby 4 months from now.

For now, that is the closet that will get to us.

Or is it vacation time.   

[Nashville_wx]

Here is my early take on things. I will not come out with a winter forecast until we get a little closer. There are too many other connectors that have yet to be seen. As we head into the fall we have we have a little better grasp on NINA. How the Pacific jet acts this winter is going to be a pretty important role in what overall temperature patterns we have here. I believe the PNA plays much more of a role in temperatures than the NAO. With climo favoring a SE ridge ( strength yet to be determined) we are going to have plenty of overrunning events. Should the Pacific firehouse be roaring and the Jet streaming with a GOA Low we are going to have a hard to getting anything to lock in. The one thing I fully stand behind tho is this.... Snowfall wise for the Middle Tennesse area and places close, we have equal chances at seeing a big storm of some type. Timing is everything for us and you really can not forecast time. We can forecast a warmer than normal winter, but 1 week of below normal temps with the right storm track and boom we could get a solid storm. Hate to say but forecasting winter in middle tennessee is nearly impossible.

[StormNine]

Pretty much my early thoughts are this.

* Active Negative ENSO(La Nina) Could be quite strong, strength unknown.
* Active Pacific jet (strength unknown) will play a better part in the winter than the NAO will.
* NAO could go negative at times, although a strong Pacific jet may override the pattern.
*  With a strong northern stream,strong SE Ridge, and active Pacific jet the MidSouth, Ohio, and Tennessee Valleys will be in the battlezone.  There could be periods of a lot of temperature flip-flops, and almost non-stop active weather events.
* While in the battlezone both the severe and ice threats will be something to really watch.
* Above Average Temps, but to what extent will depend on how the battleground sets up, and other teleconnector factors. This will also determine how precipitation sets up.
* Snowfall looks to be below normal, but you never know how things will go, esp. in the south where one event can make or break a winter, as far as snowfall goes.

Edit: How can I forget Model Chaos!!!!      

[Nashville_wx]

Localized events are just too hard to predict which is why trying to predict total snowfall is hard. Its true the airport has missed out on many decent sized events. West and south of Nashville have had several good events. I have been waiting and will continue to wait for a snowfall above 6" here in Davidson County once again. Odds are its going to happen sooner than later.

[StormNine]

Localized events are just too hard to predict which is why trying to predict total snowfall is hard. Its true the airport has missed out on many decent sized events. West and south of Nashville have had several good events. I have been waiting and will continue to wait for a snowfall above 6" here in Davidson County once again. Odds are its going to happen sooner than later.

Look at 07-08 and 08-09 the areas that got above average in snowfall on those two winters.  Got there from one late season snow.

[Woodvegas]

Although the sample size is small I don't believe BNA has ever had above average snowfall during a strong La Nina. However, we can get above average snowfall in weak and moderate La Ninas but it is variable with some very snowy years and some with little snow. An ONI of about -0.7 to -1.0 in DJF seems to be most optimal for snow. We need the ONI to not exceed -1.5. Temps tend to be above normal during strong La Ninas and about normal for us during weak and moderate La Ninas. I agree that how much the La Nina influences the PNA and the pacific jet may be the key to how our winter turns out. As a side note whenever November is warmer than normal snowfall for the winter has been less than normal about 80% of the time including weak and moderate La Nina years.

Here is a link to the latest (August 30th) ENSO info...
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

[Woodvegas]

This map shows the DJF snow anomalies for La Nina years. Overall it's about average for TN but the map does not break it down into weak, moderate, or strong categories.

[Curt]

This Nina is tanking in a hurry to possible record territory before Fall even starts. Several Pacific regions are already in the strong Nina mode as of this week. One has to wonder if it will peak before winter really gets going. If thats the case one might see severe earier in the fall and early winter followed by winter precip later on. Regardless should be interesting to watch.