The Century Club

[Curt]

Looks like MEG is hinting at a building southwest ridge aloft late in the period...which we all know means hot and dry(very desert-like). We could be flirting with our first 100 degree days of the year.

LATE IN THE WEEK THE GFS AND ECMWF BRINGS A WEAK SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO
THE MIDSOUTH WITH A FILLING TROUGH LIFTING NORTHEAST INTO THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS FEATURE MAY KEEP A THREAT OF PM STORMS
ACROSS THE REGION. BY NEXT WEEKEND BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BUILD THE
RIDGE BACK INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WITH THE MAIN BAND OF
PRECIPITATION SHUNTED NORTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES. IF MODEL AGREEMENT
CONTINUES TEMPERATURES COULD HIT THE CENTURY MARK FOR THE FIRST TIME
THIS YEAR. SINCE THIS PROPOSAL IS SEVEN DAYS OUT HELD BACK FOR NOW AND
KEPT TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 90S. NONETHELESS...IT WILL BE
UNCOMFORTABLE...WITH HEAT INDICES CONTINUALLY FLIRTING WITH 105F.

Lets keep this thread alive to record local temps at 100 or higher.

[Charles L.]

Just what I need and want to hear!

I'm getting a golf game in tomorrow as it will be the best day we could possibly have the rest of summer. haha

[Clay]

Looks like MEG is hinting at a building southwest ridge aloft late in the period...which we all know means hot and dry(very desert-like). We could be flirting with our first 100 degree days of the year.


Lets keep this thread alive to record local temps at 100 or higher.

Ha, desert like except you add about 50º to the dew point.

I guess Memphis being further west than us would not help with temps, they've got your highs about 3 degrees warmer than BNA next weekend. Either way it is gonna be hot next weekend.

[Clay]

Latest forecasts show 96 for Memphis next weekend.

[Curt]

Ha, desert like except you add about 50º to the dew point.

I guess Memphis being further west than us would not help with temps, they've got your highs about 3 degrees warmer than BNA next weekend. Either way it is gonna be hot next weekend.

Very true! The really hot years 2000 and especially 2007(when KMEM hit 107) featured non-traditional dp's in the upper 50's and low 60's in the afternoon before rebounding each night as is typical. So it was desert-like for Tennessee standards anyways! Heat indices topped out at around 110-111, so still very dangerous. With the heavy rains of May, it may be hard to really deplete ground soil to get conditions ripe for a major heat wave, but anything is possible. It seems Memphis hits 100 almost every summer these days at least once.Nothing will come close to the brutal summer of 1980 with 100 degree temps for nearly a month.

Memphis actually recorded its first heat related death this week with temps in the low 90's, so it doesnt have to be 100 to cause problems.

[Clay]

Low 75º this morning.. whew that's warm.

[Thundersnow]

Low 75º this morning.. whew that's warm.

The dew point is currently in the mid 70s. 

Stay hydrated if you do any physical activity outdoors today and this weekend.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1107 AM CDT THU JUN 10 2010

TNZ005>011-022>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-111615-
STEWART-MONTGOMERY-ROBERTSON-SUMNER-MACON-CLAY-PICKETT-BENTON-
HOUSTON-HUMPHREYS-DICKSON-CHEATHAM-DAVIDSON-WILSON-TROUSDALE-
SMITH-JACKSON-PUTNAM-OVERTON-FENTRESS-PERRY-HICKMAN-LEWIS-
WILLIAMSON-MAURY-MARSHALL-RUTHERFORD-CANNON-DE KALB-WHITE-
CUMBERLAND-BEDFORD-COFFEE-WARREN-GRUNDY-VAN BUREN-WAYNE-LAWRENCE-
GILES-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...DOVER...CLARKSVILLE...SPRINGFIELD...
GALLATIN...LAFAYETTE...CELINA...BYRDSTOWN...CAMDEN...ERIN...
WAVERLY...DICKSON...ASHLAND CITY...NASHVILLE...LEBANON...
MOUNT JULIET...HARTSVILLE...CARTHAGE...GAINESBORO...COOKEVILLE...
LIVINGSTON...JAMESTOWN...LOBELVILLE...CENTERVILLE...HOHENWALD...
FRANKLIN...BRENTWOOD...COLUMBIA...LEWISBURG...MURFREESBORO...
WOODBURY...SMITHVILLE...SPARTA...CROSSVILLE...SHELBYVILLE...
TULLAHOMA...MANCHESTER...MCMINNVILLE...ALTAMONT...SPENCER...
WAYNESBORO...LAWRENCEBURG...PULASKI
1107 AM CDT THU JUN 10 2010

...EXTREME CAUTION ADVISED FOR HEAT AND HUMIDITY THIS WEEKEND...

NUMEROUS OUTDOOR EVENTS WILL BE TAKING PLACE ACROSS MIDDLE
TENNESSEE THIS WEEKEND. THOSE ORGANIZING AND PARTICIPATING IN
THESE EVENTS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR HEAT STRESS.

ALTHOUGH RECORD TEMPS APPEAR UNLIKELY...HIGHS EACH DAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WILL REACH THE LOW TO MID 90S WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO
MID 70S. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE HIGH...AND THIS WILL MAKE IT FEEL
EVEN MORE UNCOMFORTABLE. THE HEAT INDEX EACH AFTERNOON WILL PUSH
NEAR 100.

HERE ARE SOME SUGGESTIONS FOR THOSE WHO WILL BE OUTDOORS THIS
WEEKEND...

DRINK PLENTY OF NON ALCOHOLIC FLUIDS.

WEAR LIGHT WEIGHT AND LIGHT COLORED CLOTHING.

TAKE FREQUENT BREAKS IN THE SHADE AND TRY TO AVOID SUNBURN.

MORE INFORMATION ABOUT HEAT SAFETY CAN BE FOUND AT

http://HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/NASHVILLE

IN ADDITION TO THE HEAT...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL POSE A
RISK THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LIGHTNING IS A DANGER WITH ALL
THUNDERSTORMS. ALSO...SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY STRONG
WINDS. IF THUNDERSTORMS APPROACH...SEEK SHELTER. EVENT ORGANIZERS
SHOULD HAVE PLANS IN PLACE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND SEVERE WEATHER.

$$
BOYD/HERRON

[servocrow]

I OBJECT TO THIS WEATHER PATTERN!!!   

Okay..so the tomatoes like it, but still, it is hard on the old lady.

[WXHD]

I certainly plan on staying hydrated this weekend!

[Clay]

Nice batch of storms lining up to our west. Could bring a good bit rain and brief relief from the heat.

[Mr. William E. Brantley]

Today - Monday - June 14, 2010`s -
 Lo of 76 ° ** is a Record Warmest Lo : ties with 1981.
The Hi has been 95 ° : Heat Index : Felt Like : 107 ° in the shade.
There are storms around me but as of 5 p.m. No rain here in Bemis, Tn.

[Curt]

LOOKS LIKE A LATE JUNE HEAT WAVE WILL SET IN ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AND CONTINUE MUCH OF THE WEEK. MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO IN SHOWING A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES INTO THE MIDSOUTH.
THE ECMWF IS ESPECIALLY STRONG WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH A
500 MB HIGH OF 598 DM CENTERED OVER MO BY TUESDAY EVENING. THINK
TEMPERATURES MAY CLIMB TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 100 DEGREES OVER
A GOOD PART OF THE MIDSOUTH BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK IF THIS
PLAYS OUT AS INDICATED WITH HEAT INDEX READINGS CLIMBING TO NEAR
110 DEGREES. THE CHANCE OF RAIN BECOMES TOO SMALL TO MENTION IN
THE FORECAST FOR MONDAY THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

[Kevin]

Both NAM and GFS MOS are showing 100 or 102 by Sunday for KMEM. However...I think they are probably a bit too warm...as they have been running too warm so far this season...most likely due to increased soil moisture from the heavy rain events earlier this year. Last week MOS was running 97-99 (and MEG went with this in their forecast...in addition to posting a heat advisory) but we didn't reach over 95 any day...failing to reach advisory criteria as heat index readings stayed 100-105.

This time...with some evaporation that's occurred since...and with the higher MOS readings...97-99 is probably reasonable...and this time 105 heat index readings certainly look like a good bet with heat advisories already posted. IF we were to get close to MOS numbers...HIs nearing 110 (warning criteria) would be possible...but I'm going to stay on the low end right now until soil moisture decreases further.

Good thing we're not in drought...or we'd probably be facing a record-breaking early summer (late spring actually!) heat wave.

[WeatherRocker]

Oh wow.

Three days ago I was sitting in Wyoming, enjoying the 54 degree weather.  ICK TENNESSEE!  I do not want more heat.  Yuck. 

[Charles L.]

Oh wow.

Three days ago I was sitting in Wyoming, enjoying the 54 degree weather.  ICK TENNESSEE!  I do not want more heat.  Yuck. 

That sounds pleasant! Like my preacher told me today, he said he wants to go back to winter and smack himself in the face for complaining about the cold. lol