NWS Discussions and Updates (NO WATCHES or WARNINGS)

[Ron_Jarrell]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
830 PM CST THU FEB 16 2006

.DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT IS NEAR A LINE FROM EVANSVILLE TO PADUCAH TO JUST WEST OF
MEMPHIS AND MOVING TOWARD THE ESE AT 29 MPH. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE NOTED ON MEMPHIS RADAR ALONG THE FRONT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...JUST NOW ENTERING
STEWART COUNTY. LOOKED AT GFS SEVERE INDICES. LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY
AND B+ GO DOWNHILL SIGNIFICANTLY BY 03Z WITH MID LEVEL INSTABILITY
AND WIND SHEAR SHOWING ONLY MINOR DECREASES. OHX SOUNDING IS ALSO
SHOWING A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION AROUND 660 MB. THIS WILL LIKELY
INHIBIT CONVECTION UNTIL JUST BEFORE THE FRONT ARRIVES. THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO PASS THE AREA TONIGHT AND BE EAST OF THE PLATEAU BY
SUNRISE.

SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY AS VERY COLD AIR
BEGINS TO POUR INTO THE AREA. THE LATEST GFS MOS TEMP GUIDANCE
HAS A HIGH OF 29F FOR SAT. OF COURSE THE BIG QUESTION BEYOND
TONIGHT...CONCERNS THE CHANCES OF FREEZING PRECIP. 2 UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHS BRING A CHANCE OF FREEZING/FROZEN PRECIP INTO THE AREA
MAINLY ON SAT AND SUN NGT/MON. THE EVENT ON SAT SEEMS TO BE MAINLY
SNOW WITH THE EVENT ON SUN NGT A BIT MORE DICEY WITH THE FORECAST
SOUNDING VERY CLOSE TO THE ZERO LINE.

CURRENT PACKAGE LOOKS FINE AND NO UPDATES ARE PLANNED.

[Ron_Jarrell]

Northeast TN update:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
904 PM EST THU FEB 16 2006

.DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALIGNED ALONG A STRONG COLD FRONT ARE
BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO WEST TENNESSEE. EXTRAPOLATION AND RUC MODEL
FORECASTS BRING THE CONVECTION INTO OUR PLATEAU COUNTIES AROUND
10Z. THIS IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN WHAT IS SHOWN IN THE GRIDS...SO
WILL MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO TIGHTEN THE TIMING OF PRECIP. EXPECT
THAT AS THE UPPER JET AND VORT MAX MOVE NORTHEAST...THE EASTWARD-
MOVING CONVECTIVE LINE WILL WEAKEN. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES
THIS IS ALREADY HAPPENING WITH WARMING CLOUD TOPS AND DECREASING
LIGHTNING ACTIVITY ON THE SOUTHERN END OF THE LINE. HOWEVER LOW
LEVEL FORCING WILL REMAIN STRONG WITH A 50+KT LLJ AND STRONG
VEERING OF LOW LEVEL WINDS. WILL ADD A MENTION OF ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE PLATEAU AND VALLEY.

TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN RUNNING WARMER THAN FORECAST DUE TO WARM
ADVECTION AND INCREASING MIDLEVEL CLOUDS. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO
FALL VERY SLOWLY AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THEN DROP RAPIDLY ONCE THE
FRONT PASSES. TOMORROW'S HIGH TEMPS WILL LIKELY OCCUR AT
MIDNIGHT...WITH TEMPS FALLING THROUGH THE DAY AS A STRONG CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS SOUTHEAST. WILL ADJUST TEMPS TO REFLECT
THIS.

[Ron_Jarrell]

Memphis Discussion Update:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
752 PM CST THU FEB 16 2006

.UPDATE...

UPDATED TO TAKE WIND ADVISORY OUT OF THE ZONES. HOWEVER...WINDS
WILL REMAIN RATHER STRONG AND GUSTY TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY RIGHT
AHEAD AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. THINK THE WINDS WILL BE BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. COLD FRONT IS
MOVING INTO NORTHEAST AR AT TIME WITH A BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS GRADUALLY SHIFTING TO
OUR NORTH...BUT SOME THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN STRONG. TEMPERATURES
FALL OFF QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT...READINGS ALREADY IN THE 30S
INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL MO AND 20S JUST TO THE NORTH.

STILL WAITING ON NEW MODEL DATA CONCERNING THIS WEEKENDS POTENTIAL
SIGNIFICANT SNOW/SLEET/FREEZING RAIN EVENT.

[Snowman]

Ron, Do you think we will have any slick spots tomorrow with wet roads and rapidly falling temps?

[Ron_Jarrell]

You know I am worried about that a little since I drive to work before sunrise.

I think we'll be OK though since it was so warm today. Those roads are going to hold a lot of the heat, as well as the ground so we should be fine. Temps won't have a chance to fall too much below freezing if at all.

[Snowman]

I suppose we also have to factor in a little breeze that will help dry the roads out.

[Ron_Jarrell]

Yes, if precip stops before front is out of here.  Model runs earlier were turning precip to frz rn before it cleared out in early A.M.

I don't think that will happen though.

[Ron_Jarrell]

Huntsville, AL NWS Discussion 9:35PM CT Thu Feb 16:

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

THE FRONT WILL STALL OUT ACROSS CENTRAL OR SOUTH ALABAMA BY
SATURDAY MORNING...AND REMAIN IN THE GENERAL VICINITY FOR SEVERAL
DAYS...CREATING A PROLONGED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER.

SHALLOW COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT IS STILL EXPECTED TO CREATE THE
POTENTIAL FOR A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION. THERE IS STILL
SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO THE TYPE OF PRECIPITATION
WHICH WILL OCCUR. SLEET...FREEZING RAIN...SNOW...AND RAIN ARE ALL
POSSIBLE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. LOCATIONS ACROSS SOUTHERN MIDDLE
TENNESSEE AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHEAST ALABAMA STAND THE
GREATEST CHANCE OF SEEING ANY FROZEN PRECIPITATION. THE WINTER
WEATHER THREAT WILL DIMINISH DURING THE DAY SUNDAY AS THE AIR WARMS
NEAR THE SURFACE.

[Ron_Jarrell]

Nashville Discussion:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED BOTTOM WATCHES/ADVISORIES LINE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
317 AM CST FRI FEB 17 2006



TONIGHT...POTENTIAL WINTER WEATHER EVENT IS ON TAP. THE AIRMASS WILL
BECOME INCREASINGLY COLDER WITH THE COLD FRONT STALLING OUT OVER THE
GULF COAST. 850 MB FRONT WILL BE POSITIONED ACROSS THE MID STATE
AROUND 06Z AS THE SUBTROPICAL JET BRINGS MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA.
PRECIPITATION WILL BE SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS WESTERN TN AT THAT
TIME. BY 12Z...PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS ALL OF THE MID
STATE. DURING THIS TIME...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO FALL WITH
LOW TEMPS FROM THE MID 20S ACROSS THE NORTH TO NEAR 30 ACROSS THE
SOUTH.

AS FOR PRECIP TYPE...WITH THE 850 FRONT MOVING SOUTHWARD...THE
PRECIP WILL BE ALL SNOW ACROSS THE NORTH AND THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLATEAU. ACROSS THE SOUTH...THE PRECIP WILL BEGIN AS SLEET
AND THEN MIX WITH SNOW BY 12Z SAT AND CONTINUE AS A MIX THROUGH
SATURDAY.

AS FOR AMOUNTS...I LOOKED AT VARIOUS PARAMETERS INCLUDING 700 MB HT
FALLS...RAW QPF...AND SPEC HUMIDITY AVGS ALONG THE APPROPRIATE
ISENTROPIC SFC. LOOKS LIKE 1-3 INCHES STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUM AS
BEING POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH DURING THE PERIOD FROM LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. ACROSS THE SOUTH...THE PERIOD OF SLEET WILL
CUT DOWN ON ACCUM AND SHOULD BE IN THE 1-2 INCH RANGE AS BEING
POSSIBLE.
DECIDED TO REFRAIN FROM ISSUING A WATCH FOR THIS REASON...I BELIEVE
THAT A GREATER THAN 50% CHANCE EXISTS THAT LIQ EQUIV QPF WILL BE
LESS THAN .25 INCHES WITH THIS EVENT. OVERALL LOW LEVEL PATTERN
SHOWS WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT WITH THE ONLY REAL FORCING BEING WITH THE
OVERRUNNING ALONG AND NORTH OF THE 850 MB BOUNDARY. WEAK
DISTURBANCES ALOFT WILL HELP THE CAUSE...BUT I BELIEVE THAT THE
OVERALL STRENGTH OF THE ARCTIC AIRMASS MAY IMPEDE MUCH OF THE
MOISTURE IN THIS CASE. OVERALL...IT JUST LOOKS AS THOUGH .15 TO .25
INCH QPFS WILL BE THE EXTENT TO THIS STORM.

A CHANCE OF SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO SAT NT ACROSS THE SOUTH AS THAT
AREA WILL REMAIN WITHIN THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE MOISTURE BAND.
TEMPS SAT NT LOOK QUITE COLD WITH LOWS FROM THE 13-15 DEGREE RANGE
ACROSS THE NORTH TO NEAR 20 ACROSS THE SOUTH.

ON SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...A SECOND STORM SYSTEM WILL EMERGE AS
AN INVERTED TROUGH BEGINS TO DEVELOP FROM CENTRAL AL NORTHEAST
ACROSS EASTERN TN. AMOUNTS COULD BE A LITTLE MORE SIGNIFICANT WITH
THIS SYSTEM. IN ADDITION...THE VERY COLD ARCTIC AIRMASS MAY BE
TOUGHER TO DISLODGE. WILL MENTION MORE OF A SNOW AND SLEET MIX WITH
THIS SYSTEM ACROSS THE NORTH WITH A SLEET OR RAIN MIX ACROSS THE
SOUTH AS TEMPS HOVER NEAR FREEZING WITH POS 850 MB TEMPS. NO ACCUM
WILL BE MENTIONED WITH THIS SECOND STORM SYSTEM AS IT RESIDES IN THE
LATTER PORTION OF THE 5TH PERIOD AND INTO THE 6TH. NO FREEZING RAIN
WILL BE MENTIONED AT THIS TIME ACROSS THE SOUTH BUT WILL NEED TO
WATCH.

[Ron_Jarrell]

Memphis Discussion 3am:

NEXT IMPULSE IN THE FLOW WILL APPROACH TONIGHT. ISENTROPIC LIFT
WILL PRODUCE PRECIPITATION. SHALLOW COLD AIR NEAR THE SURFACE WILL
CAUSE A MIXTURE OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT FOR ABOUT
NORTHERN THREE QUARTERS OF THE CWA...AND LIQUID FOR FAR SOUTHERN
SECTIONS. ALL AREAS LIKELY TO BE SOME FORM OF FREEZING/FROZEN
PRECIPITATION AFTER 12Z SATURDAY. PRECIPITATION WILL BE STARTING
DURING THE MID TO LATE PORTION OF THE SECOND PERIOD OF FORECAST.
IN ADDITION...SOME QUESTION AS TO WHETHER ENOUGH PRECIPITATION...MAINLY
GREATER THAN 0.25 INCH LIQUID...WILL OCCUR TO REACH WARNING
CRITERIA. FOR THESE REASONS...WILL CONTINUE WINTER STORM WATCH
WHERE IT WAS ALREADY OUT...AND ADD A WATCH TO AREAS FURTHER
SOUTH...BEGINNING AT 12Z SATURDAY. WILL ADD WORDING TO WSW AND HWO
THAT WARNINGS OR ADVISORIES LIKELY TO BE ISSUED LATER IN THE DAY.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD END BY 00Z SUNDAY.

MOST OF SUNDAY TO BE DRY. MODELS SHOWING DIFFERENCES ON STRENGTH
OF IMPULSE SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH NAM INDICATING SUNDAY NIGHT COULD
BE DRY.

[Ron_Jarrell]

HWO NASHVILLE:

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
530 AM CST FRI FEB 17 2006

TNZ005>011-022>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-181130-
BEDFORD-BENTON-CANNON-CHEATHAM-CLAY-COFFEE-CUMBERLAND-DAVIDSON-
DEKALB-DICKSON-FENTRESS-GILES-GRUNDY-HICKMAN-HOUSTON-HUMPHREYS-
JACKSON-LAWRENCE-LEWIS-MACON-MARSHALL-MAURY-MONTGOMERY-OVERTON-PERRY-
PICKETT-PUTNAM-ROBERTSON-RUTHERFORD-SMITH-STEWART-SUMNER-TROUSDALE-
VAN BUREN-WARREN-WAYNE-WHITE-WILLIAMSON-WILSON-
530 AM CST FRI FEB 17 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
TODAY BRISK NORTH WINDS KEEPING HIGH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 40S
OR LOWER. ACCUMULATING SNOW FALL POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT WITH 1 TO 2
INCHES IN THE NORTH BY SUNRISE.  ABOUT ONE INCH POSSIBLE IN THE
SOUTHERN COUNTIES WHERE SLEET COULD BE MIXED IN.


.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

SATURDAY...PRECIPITATION WILL BE ALL SNOW ACROSS THE NORTH HALF OF
THE MID STATE AND THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL CUMBERLAND PLATEAU. ACROSS
SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN...THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL AS A MIXTURE OF
RAIN...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE QUITE COLD ON SATURDAY AND HIGHS WILL
REMAIN IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THUS...SOME
ACCUMULATION OF ICE AND SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS MIDDLE TN
BEGINNING SATURDAY. LOWS SUNDAY MORNING WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TEENS
TO LOW 20S.

AS IF THAT WAS NOT ENOUGH WINTER WEATHER...ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM
WILL SPREAD MOISTURE BACK ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
SUNDAY NIGHT. AGAIN...A MIXTURE OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL BE
POSSIBLE FOR THE MIDDLE PORTIONS OF THE VOLUNTEER STATE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WOULD APPRECIATE SPOTTER REPORTS OF ANY
WINTRY PRECIPITATION ACCUMULATION THAT MAY OCCUR THIS WEEKEND.

[Ron_Jarrell]

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
100 PM CST FRI FEB 17 2006

ALZ001>010-016-TNZ076-096-097-171900-
LAUDERDALE-COLBERT-FRANKLIN AL-LAWRENCE-LIMESTONE-MADISON-
MORGAN-MARSHALL-JACKSON-DE KALB-CULLMAN-MOORE-LINCOLN-FRANKLIN TN-
100 PM CST FRI FEB 17 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH ALABAMA AND PORTIONS
OF SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...THROUGH TONIGHT...

AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SPREAD MOISTURE INTO THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY OVERNIGHT. THE PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN AS RAIN OR
SLEET...BUT WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING TO NEAR THE FREEZING
MARK...THE PRECIPITATION MAY CHANGE TO FREEZING RAIN DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. THIS WOULD BE PARTICULARLY POSSIBLE OVER
EXTREME NORTHWEST ALABAMA AND IN SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

IF FREEZING RAIN OCCURS...ICE ACCUMULATIONS BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY
COULD TOTAL UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY...PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO MIX WITH
AND CHANGE TO SLEET EARLY. SLEET IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO BE THE
PREDOMINANT PRECIPITATION TYPE DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...WITH THE
SLEET OCCASIONALLY MIXING WITH RAIN...FREEZING RAIN...OR SNOW. THE
PRECIPITATION MAY CHANGE TO LIGHT SNOW BRIEFLY BEFORE ENDING ON
SATURDAY. THE CHANGEOVER TO SNOW IS MOST LIKELY IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

ACCUMULATIONS WILL VARY WIDELY DEPENDING ON THE MIX OF PRECIPITATION
THAT OCCURS. THE ENTIRE AREA RUNS A RISK OF GENERALLY LIGHT ICE
ACCUMULATION EARLY...THEN SLEET ACCUMULATION OF AS MUCH AS 1 TO 2
INCHES DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...AND POSSIBLE SNOW ACCUMULATION UP
TO AN INCH AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

THE PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF SATURDAY NIGHT.

THEN...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR YET ANOTHER WINTRY WEATHER EVENT
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS FREEZING RAIN OR
FREEZING DRIZZLE WOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREAT DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD...BUT INTERESTED PARTIES SHOULD REMAIN ALERT TO POSSIBLE
CHANGES IN THE FORECAST AS THE EVENT GROWS CLOSER.

ANOTHER PRECIPITATION CHANCE IS IN THE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IT APPEARS AT THIS TIME THAT THIS WILL BE
RAIN ONLY.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL MAY
BECOME NECESSARY IN SUPPORT OF WINTER WEATHER OPERATIONS LATE
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. SPOTTER REPORTS OF BOTH PRECIPITATION TYPE AND
ACCUMULATION WOULD BE GREATLY APPRECIATED LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.

[Ron_Jarrell]

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1232 PM CST FRI FEB 17 2006

TNZ005>011-022>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-181130-
STEWART-MONTGOMERY-ROBERTSON-SUMNER-MACON-CLAY-PICKETT-BENTON-
HOUSTON-HUMPHREYS-DICKSON-CHEATHAM-DAVIDSON-WILSON-TROUSDALE-
SMITH-JACKSON-PUTNAM-OVERTON-FENTRESS-PERRY-HICKMAN-LEWIS-
WILLIAMSON-MAURY-MARSHALL-RUTHERFORD-CANNON-DEKALB-WHITE-
CUMBERLAND-BEDFORD-COFFEE-WARREN-GRUNDY-VAN BUREN-WAYNE-LAWRENCE-
GILES-
1232 PM CST FRI FEB 17 2006

...A HEAVY SNOW WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING FOR MOST OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE...

...A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING FOR GILES...LAWRENCE AND WAYNE COUNTIES IN SOUTHWEST
MIDDLE TENNESSEE...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING. MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA. THE COMBINATION OF UPWARD MOTION AND
INCREASING MOISTURE...ALONG WITH SUFFICIENTLY COLD TEMPERATURES
WILL PROVIDE THE BASIS FOR SNOW TO DEVELOP MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY MORNING. SLEET WILL BE MIXED
WITH THE SNOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

PRECIPITATION WILL BE ONGOING EARLY IN THE DAY ON SATURDAY. TOTAL
SNOWFALL WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES...WITH A FEW
AREAS POSSIBLY RECEIVING 4 INCHES OF SNOWFALL. SNOW AND SLEET IS
EXPECTED TO TOTAL FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES IN THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES.

ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM CAN BE EXPECTED TO SPREAD A WINTRY MIX OF
PRECIPITATION BEGINNING LATE SUNDAY AND CONTINUING INTO EARLY
MONDAY. BUT AT THIS IT APPEARS THAT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE
LIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

DUE TO THE UPCOMING WINTER WEATHER...SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY
MANAGERS ARE ASKED TO RELAY REPORTS OF SNOWFALL OR SLEET TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER OFFICE IN OLD HICKORY.

[Ron_Jarrell]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
225 PM CST FRI FEB 17 2006

.SHORT TERM...(THROUGH SUN)
CURRENT...SKIES HAVE UNEXPECTEDLY CLEARED SHUTTING OFF CAA...WITH
TEMPS CLIMBING INTO UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. CLOUDS OVER AR AND W TN
POISED TO MOVE IN LATER TONITE.
 
HAVE GONE AHEAD WITH SNOW WARNING EXCEPT FOR FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES
WHERE WENT WITH WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. QPF AMOUNTS ON NAM AND
GFS MODELS (UKMET LESS) HAVE CONSISTENTLY BEEN IN THE .1 TO .3
AMOUNTS THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING...AND WITH FLUFFY SNOW THIS COULD
ACCUMULATE TO 3 INCHES MANY LOCATIONS. WWA FAR S BECAUSE MIXED IN
OR MOSTLY SLEET...AT LEAST INITIALLY. SHOULD BE MAINLY IN 06Z-18Z
TIME FRAME.

LOOKS LIKE MOST PERSISTENT FEATURE FOR LIFT HAS BEEN UPPER LEVEL
VORT MAX MOVING THRU VEERING WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. HOPE THIS IS ENUF.

CLEARING POSSIBLE TOMORROW NITE AND MERCURY WILL FALL INTO THE
LOWER TEENS IN A LOT OF PLACES...POSSIBLY COLDEST AIRMASS OF
SEASON...ESPECIALLY IF SNOW COVER ADDS TO MIX.

HI PRES ON SUN WITH A LITTLE WARMING.

.LONG TERM...
SITUATION FOR SUN NITE LOOKS LESS IMPRESSIVE FROM LATEST GFS RUN.
WILL NOT MAKE BIG CHANGES FOR NOW. GRADUAL WARM-UP INTO THE LATTER
PART OF THE WEEK.

[Ron_Jarrell]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
400 PM EST FRI FEB 17 2006

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...UPGRADED WATCH TO A
COMBINATION OF WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES...IN LINE WITH GFS MODEL AND
WWD GRAPHICS. I DID DOWNPLAY AMOUNTS JUST A BIT IN THE TRI CITIES
VICINTY DUE TO WARM GROUND AND LATER ARRIVAL OF THE ARCTIC AIRMASS.
IN THE SMOKIES...ENOUGH WARM AIR INITIALLY COULD ALSO CREATE A MIX
AND INHIBIT AMOUNTS. UNCERTAIN ON HOW FAST THE PRECIPITATION (PCPN)
CHANGES OVER TO ALL SNOW...PLUS SOME EXPECTED MELTING UNTIL GROUND
COOLS SUFFICIENTLY...THUS RAN ADVISORIES FOR MOST AREAS. SOMETHING
FOR MIDNIGHT SHIFT TO MONITOR. ALTHOUGH PCPN STILL LOOKS TO START
WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT. GENERALLY COVERED ALL PCPN TYPES ACROSS SRN
MOST AREAS...WITH MAINLY SNOW/SLEET ACROSS NRN AREAS.  

UNDERCUT MINS TONIGHT AND MAX TEMPS SATURDAY...HAVING NOTED MOS
TREND OF TOO WARM ON LOWS AND HIGHS IN THE ARCTIC AIRMASS. THANKS
TO SURROUNDING OFFICES FOR COORDINATION (VIA CHAT AND PHONE) ON
THIS DIFFICULT PART OF THE FORECAST PACKAGE.

(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...
SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY PULLING DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION ALLOWING SKY TO CLEAR.
CLEAR NIGHT...LIGHT WINDS...AND ARCTIC-LIKE AIR WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO DROP NICELY OVERNIGHT. DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH SNOW
ACCUMULATES SATURDAY...LOWS COULD BE LOWER THAN GUIDANCE.

FOR SUNDAY...RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE FORECAST
AREA. GFS/NAM SOUNDINGS SHOW INCREASING HIGH AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDS SO
WILL CALL FOR PARTLY-MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY...BUT CONTINUED DRY. FOR
SUNDAY NIGHT...BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS BACK TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
ALLOWING FOR INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS. WILL CONTINUE WITH A CHANCE POPS AREA-WIDE. TEMPERATURE
PROFILE SUGGEST PRECIPITATION WILL BE MAINLY SNOW.

.LONG-TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...JET STREAM ALIGNED IN ZONAL
POSITION THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH LOTS OF ACTION WHICH MEANS
THE MODELS INDICATE MANY RIPPLES OF ENERGY RIDING THROUGH THE FLOW
PRODUCING WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE THAT TRAVERSE THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S.
BECAUSE OF THE POSITION OF THE JET THE DIVISION OF FROZEN PRECIP
FROM LIQUID PRECIP WILL BE RIGHT OVER THE FORECAST AREA AND OF
COURSE NOT ENOUGH CERTAINTY TO "NAIL DOWN" PRECIP TYPE WAY OUT HERE
IN THE EXTENDED RANGE SO USED MIXTURE TYPE WORDING AND WITH THE
ACTIVE PATTERN VARIOUS CHANCE PROBABILITIES WERE APPLIED IN EVERY
PERIOD BUT THE LAST ON FRIDAY WHERE THERE IS SOME POSSIBILITY OF A
12-24 HOUR PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER.