Spring starts with a cold shot from old man winter...

[Thundersnow]

Eric, I was noting the position of the southern shortwave.  Thunder are you wanting to know exactly what the high area of Positive vorticity means or its various causes?

I was just asking what I was looking at as far as what the yellow-to-orange shaded areas represented on the map, just to confirm that it was vorticity we were looking at.

But, I'm not necessarily sure what that means without knowing a whole host of other factors.

What I meant was... without knowing various things such as surface temps, dewpoints, RH/QPF, I wasn't sure what it meant... where on the spectrum it falls between wintry, rainy, or stormy.  I had not looked at any other indicators for that time period to really know.

[Eric]

OHX sees possible severe storms this weekend...

LONG TERM...
FINALLY BY FRI A RETURN TO SOUTHERLY FLOW AS UPPER RIDGING COMMENCES.
TEMPS WELL INTO 60S FRI AND SAT. NEXT POTENT FRONT ARRIVES MOST
LIKELY SAT EVE...WITH DEEPENING SYSTEM AND STRONG WIND FIELDS.
COULD BE A SQUALLINE SEVERE WEATHER EVENT. COOLING DOWN BEHIND
FRONT SUN INTO MON.

[Charles L.]

Morning AFD they are holding back on mentioning any severe weather. Low level instability looks weak as the cold front will, more than likely, come through during the late evening to overnight hours when instability is waning.

[tennessee storm09]

if only we had a more rich flow from the gulf, we could be looking at a pretty good outbreak of severe weather across the midsouth this friday night into saturday. dew points at best look to get maybe into the mid 50s level. still think our best chance of major severe will be in april.

[mempho]

I just happened to glance at the 12z GFS today.  It looks somewhat interesting.  It looks like a lot of cold rain, but it's certainly got some interesting characteristics. 

[Thundersnow]

OHX talking about that squall line again...

.LONG TERM...
FINALLY SOME GOOD WARMING BY FRI AND SAT AS H5 RIDGING COMMENCES
AND LO LEVEL FLOW BECOMES SOUTHERLY. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A
GOOD FRONTAL SYSTEM COMING INTO WRN TN AROUND 00Z SUN...SO LIKELY
POPS FOR SAT NITE. LO LEVEL INSTABILITY LOOKS LIMITED BUT IT IS A
STRENGTHENING SYSTEM AND THERE COULD BE A GOOD SQUALL LINE WITH
DAMAGING WINDS.

[Charles L.]

With the way this week has been going, I could use a good severe setup to deal with...even if it is not much of one.

If we had just had more gulf moisture (just like the last event) we could have had a big severe event.

But the cooler gulf waters is having an increased affected with our severe season, as mentioned by others before.

[mempho]

Spring lovers,

Don't look at the 18z GFS on 03/16.  That is all.   

[mempho]

I'm taking bets...

[toastido]

But the cooler gulf waters is having an increased affected with our severe season, as mentioned by others before.

I have a feeling that because of this, we are going to be looking at a MAJOR event sometime in April.  The atmosphere will be able to handle the moisture, and as the Southern Jet begins it's Northward migration, and temps start to warm up, we could be looking at an explosive month ahead.  

Now this is not based on any scientific studies, but my own gut feeling.  I could be completely wrong (and I hope I am, as major events tend to cost lives and property), but I truly am dreading the month of April this year....

[dwagner88]

I'm taking bets.

I wouldn't. Not after the winter we've had. Not to mention that I have seen snow here in April for three years on the trot. Didn't stick, but still.

[tennessee storm09]

i agree with you toastido 100 percent. i think sometimes in april we are going to see a major severe weather episode. high risk even. everything should come together in april.

[Susan]

I have a feeling that because of this, we are going to be looking at a MAJOR event sometime in April.  The atmosphere will be able to handle the moisture, and as the Southern Jet begins it's Northward migration, and temps start to warm up, we could be looking at an explosive month ahead.  

Now this is not based on any scientific studies, but my own gut feeling.  I could be completely wrong (and I hope I am, as major events tend to cost lives and property), but I truly am dreading the month of April this year....

Told my sister-in-law the same thing earlier this evening.  Either we have a major outbreak of storms coming this spring or we have a very mild summer ........... my bet is on the storms.

I am also betting on spring flooding.

[Curt]

Looks like winter's last gasp this weekend. MEG mentions snow showers north of MS-TN state line. EURO confirms this, GFS somewhat, too. Freezing temps are likely by Monday am. After that, it looks like the real deal will set in for Spring...hopefully.

[a_met]

But the cooler gulf waters is having an increased affected with our severe season, as mentioned by others before.

It may not necessarily be that cooler Gulf waters are limiting severe potential. Rather, a pattern which generally results in below normal severe weather is likely causing cooler water temperatures (i.e., active/strong subtropical jet). Which came first, the chicken or the egg?