Spring starts with a cold shot from old man winter...

[Woodvegas]

Both the 3/14 0Z ECMWF and the 12Z GFS show a cold front passing through around 3/21 with maybe a few post fropa snow flurries/showers.

[tennessee storm09]

we will also have to watch out for severe weather with this system also.

[ajatwister]

Yeah the 18z downplays all that. The weather looks to be VERY BORING for the next couple weeks

[Eric]

12z GFS comes out in a few, but according to the 06z GFS, we could see a round of thunderstorms over the weekend. The mode and severity of which is yet to be determined, however.  CAPE values look meager, but upper level wind fields look favorable with a jet max rounding the base of the upper level trough, exiting over west TN.  Surface dew points, though, will need to improve for any chance at severe weather, IMO.  They look to reach about 60F at about the same time as the max exits the trough, though. What does this all mean?  It means squadoosh right now, but with the surface low progged to be in a favorable geographic position to give us severe weather, the data will need to be watched over the next few days.

[dwagner88]

Where's all the March rain? We have had only one heavy rainfall event so far in a month where we should average more than 6 inches of liquid precip. At this rate, March could wind up being the first abnormally dry month we have had since august. Nothing to freak out about yet, but I've been really spoiled by the stormy pattern over the last six months and I really don't want it to end!

[Thundersnow]

Where's all the March rain? We have had only one heavy rainfall event so far in a month where we should average more than 6 inches of liquid precip. At this rate, March could wind up being the first abnormally dry month we have had since august. Nothing to freak out about yet, but I've been really spoiled by the stormy pattern over the last six months and I really don't want it to end!

It seems like it's been fairly wet here in Nashville.  We've had rainfall on each of the last several days straight.  But, it hasn't been anything very heavy, other than maybe a day or two over the last couple of weeks.  Just a lot of cool damp weather.

[Nashville_wx]

Its easier to deal with this type of weather knowing you are headed for Winter. Mt. LeConte and some of the higher areas of the smokies ( 4500Ft+ ) just had a pretty good snowfall. I almost left Friday of last week to head that way, but family comes first so I had to take care of other things. I believe there is still 1 more good shot at Heavy snowfall above 4500ft. Get above 850mb and you still have something to work with:)

[Nashville_wx]

00Z GFS


12Z GFS

[Eric]

00Z GFS


12Z GFS

Anything to add besides the obvious differences?

[Thundersnow]

I have a specific question about that particular map view. What does the yellow and orange coloration refer to?

The legend is on the left.  But, I assume, per the title at the top of the map, that this is a measure of "vorticity"?

With that said, it looks like slightly more "vorticity" for TN on the 12Z map compared to the 0Z map.

But, I'm not necessarily sure what that means without knowing a whole host of other factors.

[Eric]

I have a specific question about that particular map view. What does the yellow and orange coloration refer to?

The legend is on the left.  But, I assume, per the title at the top of the map, that this is a measure of "vorticity"?
With that said, it looks like slightly more "vorticity" for TN on the 12Z map compared to the 0Z map.

But, I'm not necessarily sure what that means without knowing a whole host of other factors.

I think the shading refers to energy, or vorticity, like you mentioned.  

[Eric]

From the SPC:

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK 
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0352 AM CDT MON MAR 15 2010
   
   VALID 181200Z - 231200Z
   
   ...POTENTIAL TOO LOW TO DELINEATE A SEVERE THREAT AREA...
   
   THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN EVOLUTION THROUGH THE COMING WEEK STILL
   APPEARS UNLIKELY TO ALLOW GULF OF MEXICO BOUNDARY LAYER MODIFICATION
   SUPPORTIVE OF A SUBSTANTIVE INLAND RETURN FLOW THROUGH AT LEAST LATE
   NEXT WEEKEND.  THIS SHOULD GREATLY LIMIT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL
   THROUGH THE PERIOD.  HOWEVER...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
   INDICATE THAT SIGNIFICANT AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER FLOW NEAR THE
   PACIFIC COAST LATE THIS WEEK COULD YIELD A STRONG/INTENSIFYING SHORT
   WAVE IMPULSE THAT DIGS THROUGH THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS...BEFORE
   SWEEPING EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. NEXT WEEKEND.
   CONSIDERABLE SPREAD DOES EXIST AMONG THE MODELS AND MODEL ENSEMBLES
   CONCERNING THIS FEATURE.  BUT IT IS WITHIN THE REALM OF POSSIBLE
   SOLUTIONS THAT STRONG LIFT AND DIFFERENTIAL THERMAL ADVECTION...IN
   THE PRESENCE OF AT LEAST WEAK MOISTENING AND STRENGTHENING DEEP
   LAYER SHEAR...COULD OCCUR ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS
   INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION LATE
   FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.  SO ...THE RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS MAY NOT
   BE COMPLETELY NEGLIGIBLE.

[Curt]

Long range-wise, I dont see a ton of warm mist air needed ror severe wx. April may be the turnaround month, but March looks to go out cool and wet.

[Nashville_wx]

Eric, I was noting the position of the southern shortwave.  Thunder are you wanting to know exactly what the high area of Positive vorticity means or its various causes?

[Crockett]

Anyone seeing any signs of spring? My lilac bushes are just starting to bud and the dogwoods appear to be no where close to blooming around here. Heck, the daffodils haven't even bloomed. It's been a few years since we made it to late March without the daffodils blooming.

The ensembles are in good agreement that the NAO and AO are going to take a jaunt back into negative territory over the next 10 days or so.

70 degree weather is a pipe dream around here at this point.