SVR Potential 3/10 - 3/12

[toastido]

HOLY COW...      Look down by Miami!!

[toastido]

HOLY COW...      Look down by Miami!!

BTW, I also checked some of the other parameters, and looks quite dangerous down that way arouond noon (1pm EST) tomorrow...

[bigalpha]

There's a chance of rain/storms anytime during the day tomorrow into tomorrow night.

Oh.  I thought that it was going to be kind of like this morning with a line of rain/storms moving through the area.

[Tom23]

There was a different scenario this morning in regards to how much precipitation we saw. There was a Weak Shortwave that moved through today, bringing only a small disturbance across, thus less rain. Instability also weakened as it moved across witha lack of large scale forcing. Tommorrow, there will be a whole different ball park. We will see a Frontal Boundary bringing with it an increased, more potent instability force. The Boundary will get more steam as it gets a boost from the strengthening Jet moving across the area tonight. This will bring with it a prolonged source of instability through evening tommorrow.

Wow,.... Did I write that??? I guess I know more than I thought I did.

[Nashville_wx]

Tom right now, looking at the lifted index values, as well as the CAPE I do not see cause for anything significant to develop even in East Tennessee. You have to move South. Shear values tend to be better south. Right now the place in my opinion to watch is South GA. As tostidos mentioned above, FL has the increased risk as conditions there are pretty prime. Tom there are so many different scenarios that can produce Super Cells. As we get into April, there is going to be a lot to watch. I will be getting cranked up and I know Eric, TS, Toastido will be spitting out great info. By the end of my first Severe season I was mixing it up and getting into good discussion with more experienced.

[Tom23]

True, but I'm just laying out the basics for what BigAlpha asked down below a few posts back. I don't know if we'll see a significant event, but the features that make it potent are there and better compared to today.

[Nashville_wx]

True, but I'm just laying out the basics for what BigAlpha asked down below a few posts back. I don't know if we'll see a significant event, but the features that make it potent are there and better compared to today.

Tom the CAPE is the best indicator of Instability. So looking at the available potential energy its not very high. Take a lifted index of 0 to -2 and you have a somewhat unstable condition that would need a lifting mechanism to approach severe. There could be some convection but I believe it will still be a bit south.

[Tom23]

Thanks for the help Nashvillewx on clearing that up!

[Nashville_wx]

Thanks for the help Nashvillewx on clearing that up!

You did quite well in your above post. Just keep reading and reading and reading

[StormNine]

It takes a little while to get some of the severe weather stuff down.  As you keep reading, and watching the events you will learn more as you go on.  I know after every event it seems like I learn at least one thing I didn't know before going into the event.

[dwagner88]

It takes a little while to get some of the severe weather stuff down.  As you keep reading, and watching the events you will learn more as you go on.  I know after every event it seems like I learn at least one thing I didn't know before going into the event.

Severe weather still completely befuddles me. It seems like sometimes we either get "historical" mega-awesome setups that don't live up to their potential, or we get less than awesome setups that overproduce and scare the crap out of everybody. There is actually a wikipedia page about every single high risk day that the SPC has ever issued. Really interesting to see how many of them busted. There are actually quite a lot.

[Charles L.]

Moore, Lincoln, and Bedford Counties are under a Severe T'storm Warning this morning. The cell has a nice bowing structure to it so damaging winds looks likely, but also large hail is a huge threat.

Some hail reports in AL are bad...2.5"-2.75" type hail reports.

[jmundie]

There was a different scenario this morning in regards to how much precipitation we saw. There was a Weak Shortwave that moved through today, bringing only a small disturbance across, thus less rain. Instability also weakened as it moved across witha lack of large scale forcing. Tommorrow, there will be a whole different ball park. We will see a Frontal Boundary bringing with it an increased, more potent instability force. The Boundary will get more steam as it gets a boost from the strengthening Jet moving across the area tonight. This will bring with it a prolonged source of instability through evening tommorrow.

Wow,.... Did I write that??? I guess I know more than I thought I did.

Standing O for Tom with this post.

You've come a long way man. Would have never though 5 months ago that you'd be able to post something like this so soon.
 

[Tom23]

Thanks Jmundie!! I'm a quick learner, so anything that is said, I latch onto right away. The learning process is still ongoing for me, but I feel like I've come a longggg way from asking 'How much snow will I get from this' or 'What does digging mean' LOL 

[Tom23]

Back on subject, it looks as though we may be in for a surprise event. Instability looks to begin increasing this afternoon as the storms reach Middle/East Tn, and look at what the low has done for areas that have seen it already this morning. The hail sizes are just impressive for anywhere, not just Bama.