SVR Potential 3/10 - 3/12

[Kevin]

that wind field chart looks pretty impressive for this time of evening kevin. i think like you said should be more linear later. but i would rule out a nader or two along the line.

Indeed...what's most encouraging though is the storms are moving more NNE...while only gradually shifting east. That means the storms coming into Memphis/Western TN will be coming from Little Rock/South...and those are still hours away...when instability should be further waned and the linear mode more dominant. Unless something forms ahead of that...I'm starting to wonder if they'll be moving in by Midnight...that's only 3 hours away...and the East progress has been quite slow on the southern end in the last few hours...

[Eric]

Thanks, Eric.  Sorry, I am busy trying to figure out why the radar from HTX has suddenly fallen about 10 minutes behind

No sweat.   

[Charles L.]

9 homes damaged and 1 injury reported in White County, AR from this same tornadic supercell. Rotation on this cell has increased yet again...

[WFayetteTN]

It appears these storms are pulsing.

Reminds me of jan 21, 1999. 21 Tornado Warnings in Crittenden County, AR. in a 7 hour timespan. That was a busy night as I was very active with Skywarn at the time and running an Amateur Radio net, with about a dozen spotters/chasers out. Every cell was training out of the Pine Bluff area and running right through the county.. 

jan 19 was pretty bad too.. but not like that night.

[toastido]

HUNs latest thinking:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
905 PM CST WED MAR 10 2010

.DISCUSSION...

EARLY EVENING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...WHICH MAINLY
IMPACTED AREAS SOUTH OF THE TENNESSEE RIVER HAS MOVED EASTWARD
INTO GEORGIA. LATEST RADAR TRENDS INDICATE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE SFC BOUNDARY TO OUR
SOUTH. THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LIKELY IMPACT OUR SRN TIER OF
COUNTIES THROUGH MIDNIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME SUSTAINED
AROUND 10 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 MPH. THIS
WILL OCCUR AS THE DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER SOUTHWEST
MISSOURI PUSHES TOWARD TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.

THE NEXT ROUND OF MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS...ALONG WITH POSSIBLE
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS...WILL APPROACH NORTHWESTERN ALABAMA AROUND OR
SHORTLY AFTER 4 AM. THE MODELS SHOW A SLIGHTLY EAST OF DUE NORTH
MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS (UPPER LOW) WITH THIS NEXT
SYSTEM. THIS MAY HOLD THE ADVECTION OF BETTER (SURFACE BASED)
INSTABILITY OFF UNTIL LATE TONIGHT. BASED ON ALL MODEL GUIDANCE...
THE WOULD ONLY LET OUR TEMPS GET NEAR 60 DEGREES AND OUR DEWPOINTS
TO AROUND 60 BEFORE DAYBREAK. EXTREME NORTHWEST ALABAMA MAY BE THE
EXCEPTION TO THAT AS THEY MAY EVENTUALLY MAKE THEIR WAY INTO THE
WARM SECTOR LATE TONIGHT.

THAT SAID WE DO AND WILL HAVE AMPLE MID LEVEL INSTABILITY AND
SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR ROTATING STORMS. THIS COULD ALLOW SOME HAIL
PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA. THE BETTER
THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS LOOKS TO BE BETWEEN 5 AM AND 8 AM IN
NORTHWESTERN ALABAMA...6 AM AND 9 AM IN NORTH CENTRAL PORTIONS OF
THE AREA...AND 9 AM AND NOON IN NORTHWESTERN ALABAMA....BUT THIS IS
CONDITIONAL UPON THE AREA REALIZING SOME SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY.

OVERALL MAINLY ADJUSTED POPS TO REFLECT CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER LOW. OTHERWISE
MADE SLIGHT CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED WINDS GUSTS.

&&

[tennessee storm09]

actually , january 17 was the date that jackson was hammered with a ef4, its was about 4 mile from my house, 1999. and january 21, 1999 was indedd a very buisy night. madsison county was under 5 warning in a 7 hour period. that was the night clasksville tn. got hammered good.

[Kevin]

The linear transition has become much clearer in just the last 15 minutes on KLZK radar...with the tornadic cell being the main discrete cell ahead of the developing line...which will be overtaken eventually...just the question on how soon and what the cell does until then...but the trends in terms of a significant tornado risk are getting more and more encouraging...not indicating that the threat is now becoming non-existent however. 

[Eric]

The linear transition has become much clearer in just the last 15 minutes on KLZK radar...with the tornadic cell being the main discrete cell ahead of the developing line...which will be overtaken eventually...just the question on how soon and what the cell does until then...but the trends in terms of a significant tornado risk are getting more and more encouraging...not indicating that the threat is now becoming non-existent however. 

I see what you mean.....clearly.  I had been away for a bit, but just pulled radar back up, and boom, we have a broken squall line.  I'd say the TOR threat is slowly diminishing......

[tennessee storm09]

that one discrete cell south of batesville, ar. still looks quite impressive.

[Eric]

actually , january 17 was the date that jackson was hammered with a ef4, its was about 4 mile from my house, 1999. and january 21, 1999 was indedd a very buisy night. madsison county was under 5 warning in a 7 hour period. that was the night clasksville tn. got hammered good.

Remember the night vividly.  I've got pictures somewhere...........  

[Kevin]

Latest SPC mesoanalysis has a tongue of 500-1000 j/kg CAPE over Eastern AR...but very little if any over Western TN. With another 3-hours to work on boundary-layer stabilization...that can only be a good thing...

[toastido]

Latest SPC mesoanalysis has a tongue of 500-1000 j/kg CAPE over Eastern AR...but very little if any over Western TN. With another 3-hours to work on boundary-layer stabilization...that can only be a good thing...

I just listened to a weather briefing with NWS HUN, and they said that the SPC is reporting that the air is beginning to stabilize ahead of the line, albeit slightly, and that the best instabilities will probably remain to the west (where they are now).  They also stated that they (HUN) think that the southern extent of the line (through TN/MS/AL) will begin to weaken as it progresses off to the east, and it wouldn't be totally unheard of for it to completely dissipate by the time it makes it to middle TN/N AL.

Didn't sound like there were any further planned watches with this system, and that the current watches should be allowed to expire on time (with the exception of the far southern ones, within the warm sector -- those may need to be renewed).

We all know how things can change (and change fast) so do NOT take any of this as the gospel, but things are looking good for now.

[tennessee storm09]

yeah i noticed that kevin. you beat me to it. hopefully  the 3 hours will make even more of a difference.

[tennessee storm09]

the thing that got my attention for most of the day and into the night. the dew points never really got to impressive. upper 50s at best

[toastido]

For the first time in several hours, there's not currently a tornado warning in AR...