SVR Potential 3/10 - 3/12

[Adam]

Back on subject, it looks as though we may be in for a surprise event. Instability looks to begin increasing this afternoon as the storms reach Middle/East Tn, and look at what the low has done for areas that have seen it already this morning. The hail sizes are just impressive for anywhere, not just Bama.

Yes the thunderstorms are really setting up over the warm front. Looks like yall will be in for a suprise.

[toastido]

Main "brunt" of the storms just moved over my location in Huntsville.  Needless to say, quite a light show!  At one point, there was pea to dime sized hail covering the ground, but nothing severe here. 

[servocrow]

Didn't need the alarm to wake me this morning...Like you, toastido...light show, pea-sized hail...heavy rain, and brief hard wind, but nothing reaching the severe threshold.

Still rumbling now, nearly an hour later. 

[toastido]

Didn't need the alarm to wake me this morning...Like you, toastido...light show, pea-sized hail...heavy rain, and brief hard wind, but nothing reaching the severe threshold.

Still rumbling now, nearly an hour later. 

Pretty much the same here minus the wind..  As for alarms, My WX radio has been going off waking me up since the watches started coming out.  Upside of having counties to your W/SW in your alert mode means you get alerted to approaching weather, downside, when it's not that bad out, you get woken up constantly until everything passes.... Now I need to get some more 

[toastido]

Bwahahaha... quoted from TalkWeather:

It came a hail storm here in SE Franklin county AL.  It was around pea size, with many 1 inch or just over 1 inch diameter hail as well mixed in.  It was a loud popping hail shower to the windows for a long time. If you step outside here you can smell nice fresh pine resin from thousands of pines in the wind. The pine needles took a beating from all the hail. The smell reminds me of the ice storm of Christmas 1998 here in NW AL.

Here is my hailman (with painted on details) lol:

[Eric]

I'm really not expecting much after the main show exits this morning.  11z RUC analysis wants to prog CAPE values of 500-750 j/kg.  While slghtly unstable, I'm not too worried about it.  Plus, the low refuses to pull out fast enough so H7 refuses to completely dry out.  With no dry air at 700mb, we're not going to see explosive storm development, and the wind fields at H3 don't look all that impressive either.  Hail could be a concern, however, with ANY storm that rolls through with subfreezing levels down to H85.  Keep in mind though that the 11z RUC only goes out to 2pm.  We will have to keep monitoring for developments as the morning progresses.

[Thundersnow]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
811 AM CST FRI MAR 12 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NASHVILLE HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  NORTHERN SMITH COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...
  EAST CENTRAL TROUSDALE COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...
  NORTHWESTERN JACKSON COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...
  EXTREME NORTHWESTERN CLAY COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...
  EASTERN MACON COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...

* UNTIL 845 AM CST

* AT 802 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL.  THIS
  STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR CARTHAGE...AND MOVING NORTH AT 40 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  RED BOILING SPRINGS AND 6 MILES EAST OF LAFAYETTE BY 830 AM CST...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS HAS BEEN REPORTED IN CARTHAGE
WITH THIS STORM. IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THE STORM...TAKE
IMMEDIATE ACTION TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY.

[toastido]

   
   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0192
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1032 AM CST FRI MAR 12 2010
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN GA...MIDDLE/ERN TN...CNTRL KY
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
   
   VALID 121632Z - 121730Z
   
   SEVERAL WEAK...BUT NOTABLE UPPER VORT MAXIMA/MCV ARE ROTATING NWD
   ALONG ERN PERIPHERY OF DOMINANT UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR KCI.  THESE
   DOWNSTREAM FEATURES ARE PRIMARILY RESPONSIBLE FOR NARROW ELONGATED
   ZONE OF GRADUALLY INTENSIFYING CONVECTION FROM NERN AL...NWD INTO
   CNTRL KY.  LIGHTNING/RADAR DATA SUPPORT THIS UPWARD EVOLUTION WHICH
   IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE WITH ANY BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING OBSERVED INTO
   THE AFTERNOON HOURS.  ALTHOUGH SFC DEW POINTS ARE GENERALLY IN THE
   LOWER 50S...QUITE COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES...H5 AOB MINUS
   20C...WILL OVERSPREAD A N-S ZONE OF LOW LEVEL CONFLUENCE IN THE
   AFOREMENTIONED AREA ENHANCING THE PROSPECTS FOR GRADUALLY
   INTENSIFYING/SUSTAINING DEEPENING CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THAT
   STRONGEST LLJ WILL REFOCUS OVER TN/KY DURING THE 18-21Z TIME FRAME.
   ORGANIZED LINE SEGMENTS THAT MANAGE TO BECOME ELONGATED A BIT NW-SE
   ACROSS THIS REGION COULD PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.  WILL CONTINUE
   TO MONITOR THIS REGION.
   
   ..DARROW.. 03/12/2010
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...MRX...JKL...FFC...ILN...LMK...OHX...HUN...
   
   LAT...LON   34658605 36128540 37308564 38378612 38428439 36398370
               34538524 34658605

[toastido]

WOW!!

HUN: Geraldine [Dekalb Co, AL] emergency mngr reports HAIL of quarter size (E1.00 INCH) at 09:47 AM CST -- nickel to quarter sized hail piled up 8 inches deep on highway 75 near geraldine. dot crews were called in to clear a bridge. numerous reports of accidents due to hail/slush making the roads slick.

 

On an related note, we have now hit our max accumulating frozen precipitation for the TN valley for this winter/early spring...  It's just... hail   Hope nobody was injured. 

[dwagner88]

Been thundering here for hours now. Nothing really significant weather wise though. About 0.39 in rain. Judging from the downstream pics though it seems like I may be getting some hail from this next storm about to move through. It is not SVR warned though.

[tnbassman]

Starting to pick up some isolated thunder and lightning here in Clinton. That cell that just went through Cleveland TN is starting to bow out pretty good.

[dwagner88]

That first storm has passed now. During the height of it, we had brief small hail. But man was it loud. First time in a long time that I couldn't distinguish between thunderclaps. It was more of a constant roar. Up to 1 inch of rain with a few more thundershowers redeveloping to the west.

[Nashville_wx]

Starting to fire up a bit here. Current CAPE values are pretty low. LI shows some signs of instability but without the CAPE breaking 1000Jkg its hard to get even a ordinary cell to develop. One thing we do have is some pretty good vertical wind shear. Its early in the season and things are trying to happen but will not this go around.

[Thundersnow]

Looks like a few convective showers have popped up in NW Middle TN... but, no, probably nothing too crazy will come up it.

[Charles L.]

First thunderstorm of the spring severe weather season (first severe cell came in January). A very loud thunderstorm too with heavy rain and some wind with it also. I am not sure if we saw any hail or not, just saw where Carthage got quarter size...