SVR Potential 3/10 - 3/12

[shooting70]

Hey eric or toastido,i just wanted to know whats missing in the atmosphere or why the spc didnt at least put arkansas in a moderate risk instead of a slight risk?Im not very fond of tornadoes,especially since i ran from them so much when i was younger

[Eric]

No Joke... Here's the current analysis of the area for sigtor numbers..



(not static, will change as meso analysis changes)

That's just SigTors right and not EHI?

[toastido]

That's just SigTors right and not EHI?

Correct... just sigtors.

Here's the 3km EHI:


and 1km EHI:


Fairly impressive.

[toastido]

HUN relaxing a bit:

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
821 PM CST WED MAR 10 2010

ALZ001>010-016-TNZ076-096-097-111115-
LAUDERDALE-COLBERT-FRANKLIN AL-LAWRENCE-LIMESTONE-MADISON-MORGAN-
MARSHALL-JACKSON-DEKALB-CULLMAN-MOORE-LINCOLN-FRANKLIN TN-
821 PM CST WED MAR 10 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH ALABAMA AND PORTIONS
OF SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...

AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL EJECT OUT OF THE PLAINS AND
TOWARD THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TONIGHT. THIS WILL HELP PUSH A
BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EASTWARD TOWARD THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY LATE TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT AREAS ACROSS NORTHWEST ALABAMA...
MAINLY WEST OF INTERSTATE 65...WILL HAVE A SLIGHT PROBABILITY OF
SEVERE WEATHER WITH THESE APPROACHING STORMS. THE MAIN THREATS
WITH ANY STORMS WOULD BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
THERE IS SUFFICIENT WIND SHEAR IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION FOR
BRIEF ISOLATED TORNADOES...THOUGH THE POTENTIAL LOOKS RATHER LOW
AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING ACROSS
THE AREA EARLY ON THURSDAY. A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO
SEVERE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHWEST ALABAMA.

OTHERWISE...THE ACTIVE AND UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED
TO PERSIST ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WORK WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL MAY
BE NEEDED OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY.

$$

[Eric]

Hey eric or toastido,i just wanted to know whats missing in the atmosphere or why the spc didnt at least put arkansas in a moderate risk instead of a slight risk?Im not very fond of tornadoes,especially since i ran from them so much when i was younger

I think the SLGT was just fine.  There's only been reports of 2 or 3 tornadoes, probably EF-2 or weaker.  I think the SPC nailed it, IMO.

[toastido]

I think the SLGT was just fine.  There's only been reports of 2 or 3 tornadoes, probably EF-2 or weaker.  I think the SPC nailed it, IMO.

Same here.  They were borderline on the MDT, and waited to see if there was going to be better moisture return and cell sustainment before pulling the trigger.  I think they made the right call in not issuing the MDT, as the paramaters, although impressive, haven't been good enough to meet the criteria for a MDT, and didn't pan out to verify a MDT (at least, not yet).

[tennessee storm09]

its a close moderate , high end of a slight risk.

[tennessee storm09]

you better hold on man down there in southaven, kevin. its could get interesting later

[Kevin]

Looks like things are going about as expected...main area of storms should reach around the MS River around Midnight...maybe a little earlier. Seems things are slowly but surely getting more clustered together...so a gradual transition to more linear segments should be on track. So far it sounds like a few impressive signatures but nothing on an outbreak scale by any means...and rotations are really heavily cycling...so I think SPC holding off the MDT is going to end up the right call. Looks like mostly a hail threat but a few tornadoes could spin-up every now and then.

[EcceQuamBonum]

toastido, where might I find the products you're posting?  (That is, the sigtor maps.)

[tennessee storm09]

that wind field chart looks pretty impressive for this time of evening kevin. i think like you said should be more linear later. but i would rule out a nader or two along the line.

[Eric]

toastido, where might I find the products you're posting?  (That is, the sigtor maps.)

They're from the SPC...

http://w1.spc.woc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/

[EcceQuamBonum]

They're from the SPC...

http://w1.spc.woc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/

Great.  Thank you!

[toastido]

Great.  Thank you!

They're from the SPC...

http://w1.spc.woc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/

Thanks, Eric.  Sorry, I am busy trying to figure out why the radar from HTX has suddenly fallen about 10 minutes behind

[Charles L.]

I really like the newly revamped SPC Mesoanalysis page, I have to brag on it again.