Early March southern Snowstorm potential

[Eric]

LOL...I was about to say the same myself. Its not like we are in desperation mode this winter...most (all?) of us have seen a good snow event comparatively speaking. Not to say its not worth watching and the pattern doesn't support an event like this...but I don't see any reason to be getting caught up with 240hour GFS maps right now.  

 

[Curt]

i tend to agree to a point kevin, but this has been consisten on the gfs long range. and we r getting closer and its still there. major mets r barking on it too.

The pattern could very well argue for a big storm somewhere, and this scenario could be feasible too. I also know better than to model hug and develop expectations this far out to. Watch then trends, and see what happens esp in about 5-6 days. I have seen consistency at this time period and sooner, thinking no way can this be avoided only to be disappointed.

[dwagner88]

10 days out...dont do this to yourselves...yet.

No kidding. If we had started threads for every 10 + day threat on the gfs this winter we'd be drowning in them by now. I know how climatologically unlikely it is to get snow in the SE in march, regardless of how great the pattern, greenland block, etc. are. I also know that march snows tend to be either quite significant or just rain. There is rarely an in between, its usually either a big storm or squat. Much harder to get small accums once the sun angle is this high.

[keithinala]

Seriously folks... there are two systems that have to pass through before we can even suggest discussing march.

18z NAM seems to be handling things a little differently with the secondary low after the monday system. That could effect the light snow that is supposed to head to our south later in the week.

Lets keep our eye on this week ahead when we've got cold and a shortwave moving through before we get too far ahead of ourselves.

I disagree. A number of things have pointed towards this for days. What is a weather forum for if not to discuss possibilities such as this? Not trying to be mean, but no one has to post in these if you think it's too soon. This is something a met wouldn't want to mention on tv yet, etc...but not for us to follow.
More and more comments in the end of Feb. thread kept coming up about it, so it seemed logical to separate it.

[keithinala]

good look for memphis at 218

[Tom23]

I disagree. A number of things have pointed towards this for days. What is a weather forum for if not to discuss possibilities such as this? Not trying to be mean, but no one has to post in these if you think it's too soon. This is something a met wouldn't want to mention on tv yet, etc...but not for us to follow.

Keith; I agree with you completely. If someone likes to follow these things in their spare/work time, then why not follow them? If someone goes all over this, then gets broken hearted at the end, I suggest you not follow it. Myself, I fall into the second category, although I do love to follow these storms (not just Winter either). I'm trying to change that fact, but its kinda hard for awhile a guess.

That being said, Weather Forums are for discussing these matters. I may not be an admin, but that would make me glad that there are people on my site talking Weather, especially if its my profession/hobby. Just don't take things too far.

[tennessee storm09]

yeah keith. lets just hope this thing stays on the models. should be getting in the euro range soon.

[Yazoo63]

I disagree. A number of things have pointed towards this for days. What is a weather forum for if not to discuss possibilities such as this? Not trying to be mean, but no one has to post in these if you think it's too soon. This is something a met wouldn't want to mention on tv yet, etc...but not for us to follow.

I agree.  I really haven't seen anyone here get "caught up" on this thing yet.  All i've seen is people just discussing what the models are showing.  Nothing more, nothing less.  I assume that's the reason why this thread was started.  

Nothing wrong with that, IMHO.  

Will be interesting to see what the EURO shows when it gets into range.

[Tom23]

I agree.  I really haven't seen anyone here get "caught up" on this thing yet.  All i've seen is people just discussing what the models are showing.  Nothing more, nothing less.  I assume that's the reason why this thread was started. 

Nothing wrong with that, IMHO. 

Will be interesting to see what the EURO shows when it gets into range.

Sure will be interesting. The Euro is the plan-maker. If it says snow, then its most likely going to snow. If it says 50's and rain, then its most likely rain. However, it is just one model, and I hope I'm not the only person who doesn't get hyped up/torn down with just one run of it.

[tennessee storm09]

i llike to cash that in now at 218 hour for memphis and the area. i take that in a heart beat.  if only were 5 days away

[Tom23]

i llike to cash that in now at 218 hour for memphis and the area. i take that in a heart beat.  if only were 5 days away

Yep, maybe this system will be the one that started great, got better, and ended like modeled. OR maybe this one will be just another 'Started great, trended worse, then did a dusting or an inch over the area, with the exception of the Plateau and Mountains, which got about 10 inches' kinda deal.

Who's with me on the first scenario deal?

[tennessee storm09]

i am with you tom, my man.

[dwagner88]

Sure will be interesting. The Euro is the plan-maker. If it says snow, then its most likely going to snow. If it says 50's and rain, then its most likely rain. However, it is just one model, and I hope I'm not the only person who doesn't get hyped up/torn down with just one run of it.

VERY dangerous statement there. Especially considering how inconsistent the euro has been since its so called upgrade earlier this season. I give this a 5% chance at best right now. We need more consistency and better agreement to have any better than that right now.

[Tom23]

As much as I'd like to see a snowstorm to cap this year off, I pretty much think everyone (at least most, as long as they weren't in the feared snow shield area), including me, are pretty happy about this Winter. Either way, I'd be cool.

[keithinala]

The upcoming pattern calls for much better than a 5% chance(that doesn't mean how big or for how big of an area) for some in the south to get a good snow hit from the start of March setup. And, the Euro has done very well since it's upgrade recently, much better than the American models.
Dan Satterfield, long time chief met of WHNT in Huntsville said this:

"The very long range models are screaming snow in 10 days....it actually looks similar to the blizzard of 93. Things can change a lot in 10 days...however..."

I think that proves having a thread for this is very valid.
I'll take the 0Z at 228 please