Threats in the second half of February...discussion by DT 2/15

[keithinala]

From the HPC:

A BETTER THREAT FOR A MAJOR SNOWSTORM COMES FROM THE NEXT SRN
STREAM WAVE WHICH TRACKS ACROSS THE SRN STATES TUE INTO EARLY
THU...AT THE SAME TIME THAT A POTENT PIECE OF ENERGY DROPS SWD
FROM THE POLAR VORTEX IN FAR NRN CANADA. THE AMPLITUDE OF THIS
NEXT SRN STREAM SYS IS LIKELY UNDERDONE BY NEW 12Z/19 MODELS. THE
STRONG SRN STREAM SYS COULD ALSO HELP LAY DOWN A STRIPE OF HEAVY
SNOW ACROSS THE DEEP S FROM TX ACROSS THE GULF STATES ON ITS EWD
TREK TO THE SE COAST. WITH MODELS CONVERGING ON THE NERN STREAM
CLOSING OFF OVER THE UPPER OH VLY AND MID ATLANTIC BY THU DAY
6...THE STAGE IS SET FOR ANOTHER MAJOR SNOW STORM FOR THE MID
ATLANTIC/NEW ENG

[Woodvegas]

2/19 update from DT...

"Major event looms Feb. 26-27...Southern US snowstorm March 2-3?"

http://www.wxrisk.com/?p=625

[tennessee storm09]

tonights 0z gfs says winter is far from over that threat for the first of the month looks very inetersting to me. could be the historic snow that bastardi has been talking about around the first week in march.

[Clay]

tonights 0z gfs says winter is far from over that threat for the first of the month looks very inetersting to me. could be the historic snow that bastardi has been talking about around the first week in march.

Yeah, there will probably be a potent system around that time frame

[toastido]

tonights 0z gfs says winter is far from over that threat for the first of the month looks very inetersting to me. could be the historic snow that bastardi has been talking about around the first week in march.

Yeah, there will probably be a potent system around that time frame

Sounds like March is going to come roaring in like a snow leopard.  (teehee)  

[tennessee storm09]

i think its serious time to start thinking about a starting a first of march winter storm thread. i would but dont wont to jinx it. its been consistent on the gfs for some time now. could be a blockbuster event for someone.

[keithinala]

i think its serious time to start thinking about a starting a first of march winter storm thread. i would but dont wont to jinx it. its been consistent on the gfs for some time now. could be a blockbuster event for someone.

Agreed.Looks like March 2/3 timeframe could be the real deal.

[Yazoo63]

i think its serious time to start thinking about a starting a first of march winter storm thread. i would but dont wont to jinx it. its been consistent on the gfs for some time now. could be a blockbuster event for someone.

I was just thinking the same thing.

From the looks of the 12z run, there's the possiblity of some major snow dumpage in the region.  Whether that happens for us in TN remains to be seen.  

Oh great ... i'm in the bullseye at 240 hours out!  LOL  (not good)



(i can imagine the east coast weather boards are going NUTS right about now.  I don't think they want any more snow)  

[keithinala]

up to 8 inches showing up into the tenn valley

[dwagner88]

There is a textbook Chattanooga screw-zone on that map. Not a big fan yet.

[snowdog]

Wow, no mention of the Euro last night???

[jmundie]

Ok, so I get how the PV will suppress the storm midweek that will once again affect central texas and northern louisiana.

But then another shortwave passes through with no major high pressure or pv to speak of and its still suppressed into the central gulf.

Its like, we either have too much southeast ridge, or not enough. Unbelievable. I just keep hoping I'm gonna check a model run and be surprised by a snowstorm that had previously been suppressed, yet I continue to be disappointed.

[Tom23]

Ok, so I get how the PV will suppress the storm midweek that will once again affect central texas and northern louisiana.

But then another shortwave passes through with no major high pressure or pv to speak of and its still suppressed into the central gulf.

Its like, we either have too much southeast ridge, or not enough. Unbelievable. I just keep hoping I'm gonna check a model run and be surprised by a snowstorm that had previously been suppressed, yet I continue to be disappointed.

Hey, don't get down... This one probably wouldn't have the chance of being big anyways. AND there is one that is gonna hopefully follow this miss, and hopefully that one will be a hit.

[jmundie]

0z GFS forming a different low further north for the storm Wed/Thurs. Moisture further north (not to Nashville yet).... but something to watch.