Threats in the second half of February...discussion by DT 2/15

[Thundersnow]

Nothing all that interesting in the long range 12Z GFS, other than about the coldest look we've seen so far this winter 300+ hours away after the first few days of March.  

[snowdog]

Nothing all that interesting in the long range 12Z GFS, other than about the coldest look we've seen so far this winter 300+ hours away after the first few days of March.  

Typical long range GFS.  There IS something interesting in the gulf as the first low passes to our north.  The GFS doesnt develop it enough to pull moisture up to our area but it is something to watch...at least see what the 12z Euro wants to do with it. 

[Kevin]

Nothing all that interesting in the long range 12Z GFS, other than about the coldest look we've seen so far this winter 300+ hours away after the first few days of March.  

I'm actually liking that idea...not that I wouldn't like another snowstorm to end the winter...but I'm getting an opportunity I haven't had much lately to catch up on schoolwork and otherwise have a life!! 

[jmundie]

Nothing all that interesting in the long range 12Z GFS, other than about the coldest look we've seen so far this winter 300+ hours away after the first few days of March.  

looks plenty interesting to me. Models still not handling all the e edgy coming through strting Monday. And historic march cold looks to set up.

I don't think were done yet. Fairly confident there will be accumulating snow in the southeast next week. And with a freezing march pattern, our chances of a big spring storm are prettygood. The southeast ridge trying to come back with manor cold pouring in is a recipe for something crazy.

[Coach B]

While right now there is not a specific storm to latch onto the overall pattern continues to look very ripe to me.  The neg AO looks to relax slightly then drop back again, plus the El Nino driven STJ looks to continue to provide disturbances every few days.  I will be very surprised if we don't end up with at least one, and more likely two, legitimate winter wx threat(s) before the third week of March is done.  

[Thundersnow]

looks plenty interesting to me. Models still not handling all the e edgy coming through strting Monday. And historic march cold looks to set up.

I don't think were done yet. Fairly confident there will be accumulating snow in the southeast next week. And with a freezing march pattern, our chances of a big spring storm are prettygood. The southeast ridge trying to come back with manor cold pouring in is a recipe for something crazy.

I meant nothing particularly interesting at literal face value on the model run... No specific big storm to get excited over yet... not that something interesting might not be in the cards.  I agree that the pattern is there for something to potentially come together for us, and I tend to think that eventually there's going to be some kind of "season finale" storm in March.  But, we'll have to wait and see.

[Brick Tamland]

There's an old fart who lives on the backside of the mountain and hangs out all the time at one of these old Ma and Pa type stores. Everyone calls him Weasel. Well, Weasel  seems to predict Winter events around here at about about 70% accuracy. He's one of these old timers that is set in his ways. That being said, Weasel is telling everyone around here that come Feb. 28 to the March 3rd time frame to fasten your seat belts because Mother Nature is going to hit us with the mother lode of snow. Now, he could be talking about just the higher elevations, but that's what the old man is saying. He was born and raised on the Sequatchie county side of the mountain so he's def. old school and set in his ways.


He said he predicts Winter storms based on several factors. He won't reveal his "secrets" but he says it's a combination of animal behavior, such as birds and critters and such, as he puts it as well as the pattern of food and seeds missing from his feeders. He likes to point out to the holes in the ground too. He said more small critters have put more holes in the ground this year and have burrowed deeper than in the last 20 years.  Maybe this old codger is onto something (or on something), who knows. Let's hope he nails this one.

I did mention the models to him and his reply was a simple "**** those God **** computers . I thought it was funny.

[JJJackson]

I smell an opportunity here...

weaselweather.com

[WXHD]

Crazy old man.....I like him 

[Curt]

I smell an opportunity here...

weaselweather.com

I believe Sequatichie Co has the notorious rep for being the moonshine captial of Tennssee. Not that "The Weasel" takes part.

[Thundersnow]

12Z EURO apparently doesn't show much either.

[ENBP]

What you don't know is that The Weasel's real name is Joe Bastardi.

[keithinala]

[jmundie]

12Z EURO apparently doesn't show much either.

after like 72 hours the 12z euro handles the energy differently than the 0z did, which was different than the prior run.

It looks like there is just way too much stuff going on for the models to handle. If you start paying attention to the 500mb maps... You can see how crazy the solutions are... Random pieces of energy throughout the entire conus.

The models still haven't nailed down what Mondays storm is gonna look like... With regards to the transfer, how much waa, track of the low, anything. So asking for anything resembling accuracy beyond the 22nd is asking more than our computer buddies can possibly provide.

As long as we've got that major pv in play, I'm game

[Brick Tamland]

I smell an opportunity here...

weaselweather.com

Now that's funny. Tell you what I'm going to do. Tomorrow I'll be out and about and I'll take my camera with me. If Weasel is at the store I'll get a pic of him. Any request? Maybe have him hold a piece of paper that says "**** electronic weather" or "**** you on the forums". He's a ornery old **** but he'd probably get a good laugh out of it.

Will send pics to JJJJackson for the face of the new weather site, WeaselWX.com