Threats in the second half of February...discussion by DT 2/15

[Crockett]

While you are certainly correct about lessening chances for snow climatologically speaking as we head into March, I wouldn't give up on winter wx after next weekend.    March often offers up some surprises in the first two weeks of the month.  And this year especially one could argue that the potential pattern actually looks favorable for winter wx storms the first half of the month at least as compared to average.

Yep. The 12z GFS certainly doesn't agree that winter ends next weekend. 

[Mathman]

April snow was one feature of the "classic" winters in the 70's and 80's.  I remember several ---

Living in Tennessee

April 13 1990 (or maybe 1989)  --- three inches in Nashville

April 1 1987 --- ten inches near Knoxville, an inch in Nashville

Living in Arkansas

April 5 1983 --- three inches in Little Rock

April (?) 1980 (or maybe 1979) --- four inches in Little Rock, nearly two feet west of Hot Springs (The storm trapped hundreds of people trying to get home from the horse races.)

[Brick Tamland]

April snow was one feature of the "classic" winters in the 70's and 80's.  I remember several ---

Living in Tennessee

April 13 1990 (or maybe 1989)  --- three inches in Nashville

April 1 1987 --- ten inches near Knoxville, an inch in Nashville

Living in Arkansas





April 5 1983 --- three inches in Little Rock

April (?) 1980 (or maybe 1979) --- four inches in Little Rock, nearly two feet west of Hot Springs (The storm trapped hundreds of people trying to get home from the horse races.)

I remember this snow. I left Chattanooga driving to Charleston, WV. It started snowing lightly as I left Chattanooga and really picked up in Knoxville, It was actually on the 3rd of April. Charleston received right at 2 feet of snow out of this. Below is are the stats  for Knoxville snow cover and conditions for that day, courtesy of WXUNG.


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History for Knoxville, TN
Friday, April 3, 1987 — View Current Conditions    
   Daily Summary    
        
 
« Previous Day    
         
   Next Day »
Daily    Weekly    Monthly    Custom    
     Actual:    Average :    Record :
Temperature:
Mean Temperature    32 °F    55 °F    
Max Temperature    34 °F    66 °F    85 °F (1946)
Min Temperature    30 °F    43 °F    25 °F (1992)
Degree Days:
Heating Degree Days    33    10    
Month to date heating degree days       32    
Since 1 July heating degree days       3427    
Cooling Degree Days    0    0    
Month to date cooling degree days       0    
Year to date cooling degree days       6    
Moisture:
Dew Point    32 °F         
Average Humidity    93         
Maximum Humidity    100         
Minimum Humidity    82         
Precipitation:
Precipitation    0.56 in    0.14 in    1.73 in (2000)
Month to date precipitation       0.43    
Year to date precipitation       14.18    
Snow:
Snow    0.00 in    0.10 in    - ()
Month to date snowfall       0.3    
Since 1 July snowfall       9.4    
Snow Depth    9.00 in         
Sea Level Pressure:
Sea Level Pressure    30.00 in         
Wind:
Wind Speed    8 mph (North)         
Max Wind Speed    12 mph         
Max Gust Speed    -         
Visibility    2 miles         
Events    Fog , Rain , Snow         
T = Trace of Precipitation, MM = Missing Value    Source: NWS Daily Summary
Daily Graph
   
   
 
   
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Local Photos:

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Astronomy for April 3, 1987:
     Rise:    Set:
Actual Time:    6:20 AM EST    6:59 PM EST
Civil Twilight:    5:54 AM EST    7:24 PM EST
Nautical Twilight:    5:24 AM EST    7:55 PM EST
Astronomical Twilight:    4:52 AM EST    8:26 PM EST
Moon:    9:09 AM EST (4/3)    No Moon Set
Length Of Visible Light:    13h 30m
Length of Day:    
12h 38m
Waxing Crescent, 26% Moon Illumination
            
Apr 3    Apr 6
First Quarter
   Apr 13
Full
   Apr 20
Last Quarter
   Apr 27
New
Distant Suns    
For more information about the solar system, view the complete star chart!

Definitions of Astronomy Terms
 
: Top of Page :
   Hourly Observations    
        
Time (EST):    Temp.:    Dew Point:    Humidity:    Sea Level Pressure:    Visibility:    Wind Dir:    Wind Speed:    Gust Speed:    Precip:    Events:    Conditions:
12:00 AM    34.0 °F    32.0 °F    92%    30.09 in    3.0 miles    NE    8.1 mph    -    0.02 in    Fog , Rain    Light Rain
1:00 AM    33.1 °F    32.0 °F    96%    30.08 in    5.5 miles    NNE    6.9 mph    -    N/A    Fog , Snow    Light Snow
2:00 AM    33.1 °F    32.0 °F    96%    30.05 in    5.5 miles    NE    9.2 mph    -    0.03 in    Fog , Snow    Light Snow
3:00 AM    32.0 °F    30.9 °F    96%    30.02 in    0.5 miles    NNE    9.2 mph    -    0.03 in    Fog , Snow    Snow
4:00 AM    32.0 °F    30.9 °F    96%    30.01 in    0.5 miles    NNE    11.5 mph    -    0.03 in    Fog , Snow    Snow
5:00 AM    32.0 °F    32.0 °F    100%    29.99 in    0.5 miles    NNE    9.2 mph    -    0.04 in    Fog , Snow    Snow
6:00 AM    32.0 °F    30.9 °F    96%    29.99 in    0.5 miles    NE    10.4 mph    -    0.03 in    Fog , Snow    Snow
7:00 AM    32.0 °F    30.9 °F    96%    30.00 in    0.5 miles    NE    11.5 mph    -    0.04 in    Fog , Snow    Snow
8:00 AM    32.0 °F    30.9 °F    96%    29.99 in    0.5 miles    NNE    11.5 mph    -    0.07 in    Fog , Snow    Snow
9:00 AM    32.0 °F    30.9 °F    96%    29.99 in    0.2 miles    NNE    9.2 mph    -    0.07 in    Fog , Snow    Snow
10:00 AM    32.0 °F    32.0 °F    100%    29.97 in    0.2 miles    NNE    9.2 mph    -    0.06 in    Fog , Snow    Snow
11:00 AM    33.1 °F    32.0 °F    96%    29.95 in    0.2 miles    North    5.8 mph    -    0.04 in    Fog , Snow    Snow
12:00 PM    34.0 °F    32.0 °F    92%    29.94 in    1.0 miles    North    11.5 mph    -    0.02 in    Fog , Snow    Light Snow
1:00 PM    34.0 °F    32.0 °F    92%    29.94 in    0.5 miles    North    9.2 mph    -    0.03 in    Fog , Snow    Snow
2:00 PM    34.0 °F    32.0 °F    92%    29.94 in    0.5 miles    North    8.1 mph    -    0.01 in    Fog , Snow    Snow
3:00 PM    34.0 °F    30.9 °F    89%    29.94 in    0.5 miles    North    11.5 mph    -    0.02 in    Fog , Snow    Snow
4:00 PM    34.0 °F    30.0 °F    85%    29.94 in    0.5 miles    North    6.9 mph    -    0.01 in    Fog , Snow    Snow
5:00 PM    33.1 °F    28.9 °F    85%    29.96 in    0.5 miles    North    10.4 mph    -    0.01 in    Snow    Snow
6:00 PM    32.0 °F    28.9 °F    88%    29.98 in    0.8 miles    NNW    11.5 mph    -    0.01 in    Snow    Light Snow
7:00 PM    32.0 °F    28.9 °F    88%    29.99 in    0.8 miles    North    6.9 mph    -    0.01 in    Snow    Light Snow
8:00 PM    32.0 °F    28.0 °F    85%    30.00 in    10.5 miles    North    6.9 mph    -    N/A    Snow    Light Snow
9:00 PM    32.0 °F    27.0 °F    82%    30.01 in    5.0 miles    NNW    5.8 mph    -    N/A    Snow    Light Snow
10:00 PM    30.9 °F    26.1 °F    82%    30.02 in    5.0 miles    NNW    10.4 mph    -    N/A    Snow    Light Snow
11:00 PM    30.9 °F    26.1 °F    82%    30.02 in    7.0 miles    NNW    10.4 mph    -    N/A    Snow    Light Snow

[Mathman]

Thanks for the information... I knew it was close to April Fool's Day in 1987.  I remember Bill Hall talking about Nashville being "in the eye of the storm" and therefore not getting very much snow.  Huge flakes fell most of the afternoon.

I was new to Nashville and got excited thinking I was finally living in a place that would see big snows.   

[JJJackson]

Rather significant change on the 18z -- has a storm in East TX through SW MS starting at hour 120. And absolutely nothing after that.

[shooting70]

JJJACKSON,what do you mean by significant change? ::pondering::Are you talking about the storm going poof after 120hrs?

[shooting70]

Nevermind jjjackson.I read what you said somewhere else.Regardless,it will be our last chance at a winterevent for us i do believe.

[Adam]

Rather significant change on the 18z -- has a storm in East TX through SW MS starting at hour 120. And absolutely nothing after that.

Of course the Gfs just starts looking crazy after that.

[ajatwister]

well at least we will see some flurries according to the 18z  but we all know THAT WILL CHANGE

[tennessee storm09]

good lord. on the 0z tonite, its has the low heading towards miami. wow. looks to get pretty cold. well  NEXT. maybe, but getting kind of late.

[jmundie]

good lord. on the 0z tonite, its has the low heading towards miami. wow. looks to get pretty cold. well  NEXT. maybe, but getting kind of late.

I don't think any of the models know what's going on. Every other run is a drastically different solution. Some have a big storm. Some have no storm at all. Some lakes cutters, some suppressed.

Interesting.

[snowdog]

Congrats....Brownsville?   

[keithinala]

Need to wait a couple more days for the models to even start getting a clue, at least as some form of consensus, as to what our upcoming days ahead will mean

[SnowSeek]

Now that I am about done with winter here is one last zinger from Bastardi:


However, by Monday night, and especially Tuesday and Wednesday, some changes occur... 1) The center gets over the Gulf Stream. 2) Fresh cold air starts to arrive behind the center. 3) More energy comes across from the southern branch. And finally... 4) The jet dives in from the northwest aloft. In the end, a brand new vortex develops over the Northeast and, unlike the current air mass, it has some real bite to it... and back into the Plains.

Which leads to the threat of a storm in the Deep South. There are two major items on the table here next week, as far as the South goes, where once again major cold relative to averages is on the way. But those two items are what represents the examples of what may go down as the greatest example of snow in the Deep South we have ever seen. Consider what is going on here, and to the bigger point of the global warming fight. In Dallas, one more snow can break the record of total snow set in the infamous winter of 1977-1978. So we will have had unprecedented snow there. Already, we have had back-to-back earliest snows ever in the I-10 corridor. If snow is recorded in Baton Rouge again, I believe that will be the third time this winter measurable snow was recorded there, and this is another example of an unprecedented event. Now let me ask the audience this question... What is more logical, believing someone who beforehand brought up the cold PDO and El Nino connection, one of the years being the year DFW had their record, and pointing out these winters occured in a cold phase of the PDO and cooler times globally, or someone who had no idea beforehand it was going to happen, and then says it's a sign of the opposite? This whole situation is a monumental example to an education system where feelings are getting valued more than facts. In any case, this would either get absorbed into the goings on in the East next week, or stay separate.

The third storm may be a doozy. Entering California next week, with major cold air in the way, the U.S. ensembles are not shy about the idea that around March 1st through 4th, the weather may be marching backwards, with a major storm coming through the Southwest into the East... shades of the great early March 1969 pattern, and if we really want to pile on, March 1960.

The Euro weeklies are out, and they are following their monthlies and the increasingly cold U.S. CFS, seeing a stormy March on the way. Before that, though, the fruits of fresh cold air and the SOI fit two weeks ago should lead to more fun and games. Henry, if you are reading this... more good news for you on the free site (Henry is in charge of that)... March should be a record month for hits. I told Hank back in mid-January, February would be, and of course December was. Anything to help my buddy out, I try to do.

[snowdog]

12z GFS showing a huge snowstorm from Denver to Chicago.  12"+