Threats in the second half of February...discussion by DT 2/15

[Woodvegas]

Interesting discussion by DT on front page of his web site...quite educational...highly recommended especially if you are a newbie...

"...Quiet for now? Feb 21 weak event, bigger threat Feb 25"

http://www.wxrisk.com/

[tennessee storm09]

thanx woodvegas, great read there. i read every word of that. i am pumped for the rest of the winter. looking forward to the next 3 weeks or so.

[WFayetteTN]

hehe... here is a link on a totally bogus site I found.
Click here:
http://dailylongrangeweather.com/iforcast-usa.php
Pick a state, city and a date at least 10 days out. This site says Memphis on 02/25/10 is going to be 74F with a chance of  . Totally opposite from everything I'm hearing. I have no idea what this site is or what he's basing these numbers on. Maybe its a wishcasting box. 

[Brick Tamland]

hehe... here is a link on a totally bogus site I found.
Click here:
http://dailylongrangeweather.com/iforcast-usa.php
Pick a state, city and a date at least 10 days out. This site says Memphis on 02/25/10 is going to be 74F with a chance of  . Totally opposite from everything I'm hearing. I have no idea what this site is or what he's basing these numbers on. Maybe its a wishcasting box. 

Heh,
It has Chattanooga with highs in high 60's to mid 70's and Knoxville with highs in the upper 30's for the same time frame.

Also, Atlanta is in the 40's and the 30's while we are in the 70's. Looks like a solid, accurate site!

[dwagner88]

I'm getting the feeling that we are setting up for another big SE snowstorm around 2/25. The models are picking up on it, and we know that cold air will be in place. This could be our pattern-changing big dog that leads us out of winter with a bang. At least its still too far out to start salivating over models.

[Coach B]

12z GFS ens are pretty interesting for Feb 25-27.  Long range chatter continues to point to blockiness and below normal temps combined with typically volatile late winter/early spring storminess.  I hope nobody was counting on an early spring. 

[DocB]

I hope nobody was counting on an early spring. 

I don't know if my heating bill can handle any more winter   

[Yazoo63]

Be afraid ... be VERY afraid !!!   

(just kidding ... after all, it IS the 18z run, and still 9 days out!) 

[keithinala]

Trend north!
http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=GFS&grid=3&model_yyyy=2010&model_mm=02&model_dd=17&model_init_hh=18&fhour=252&parameter=SNOWIN&level=SURFACE&unit=none&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false

[Tom23]

Trend north!
http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=GFS&grid=3&model_yyyy=2010&model_mm=02&model_dd=17&model_init_hh=18&fhour=252&parameter=SNOWIN&level=SURFACE&unit=none&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false

East TN sits nicely in that 8-10 inches of snow... Too bad its not gonna happen.

[SnowSeek]

I can deal with that look of supression, so long as it's not hugging Cuba again lol

[keithinala]

East TN sits nicely in that 8-10 inches of snow... Too bad its not gonna happen.

Good grief at the negativity already. Let's not start this again. You have no idea whether it will happen or not at this point.

[Coach B]

12Z GFS looks real close to a mid-south special for the 25-26th.  Just sayin. 

[JJJackson]

Track of the low hugs the coast...would be nice if it move inland once it gets to New Orleans, but plenty of time to work out the details. Next weekend looks to be our last, best shot at winter weather, as we are entering the period where any snow is going way against climatology.

[Coach B]

Next weekend looks to be our last, best shot at winter weather, as we are entering the period where any snow is going way against climatology.

While you are certainly correct about lessening chances for snow climatologically speaking as we head into March, I wouldn't give up on winter wx after next weekend.    March often offers up some surprises in the first two weeks of the month.  And this year especially one could argue that the potential pattern actually looks favorable for winter wx storms the first half of the month at least as compared to average.