Lets Talk About TV Meteorologists and Winter Weather

[Charles L.]

I have family in Cordova so I know exactly what you mean with their forecasters (especially Dave Brown). The Nashville OCM's are much better than Memphis's IMO. When I go down to my aunt and uncles, I like WREG the best out of all the other stations. Is it just me or is the ABC 24 station (do not know call sign) really lacking with their weather products?

[Crockett]

I only go to school in Sewanee; I'm originally from Maryville, so I grew up with all the Knoxville mets.  In fact, we don't really have cable in the dorms, so I couldn't even tell you the names of the Chatty mets.

All the same, WBIR is the only station I watch when I'm home.  I've always had a great deal of respect for Todd Howell because he carries the job off professionally and with a minimum of fuss.  Mike Witcher isn't too bad, either.

WBIR also does the online weather chats during severe weather events.  I've always enjoyed them because they tend to be real entertaining, especially when every other question for the forecasters tends to be "ARE WE GOING TO SEE ANY TORNADOES WITH THIS STORM??"

That said, I also have a certain fondness for Matt Hinkin at WATE because when I was in first grade he read a weather question on the air that I'd submitted to him.   

I like Todd, too. He's one of the best TV mets in the business, as far as I'm concerned.

[InMemphis]

I personally prefer WREG over any other station at this point. I feel the information they provide is good and for the most part accurate. I think Tim Simpson and Jim Jaggers work well together as a team during severe and winter weather. Todd Demers also does well and has lived in the area long enough to know his stuff. Austen Onek is also very knowledgeable and is also great during severe and winter weather coverage. I also feel Claudia Barr and Richard Ransom make a great team.

[WFayetteTN]

I personally prefer WREG over any other station at this point. I feel the information they provide is good and for the most part accurate. I think Tim Simpson and Jim Jaggers work well together as a team during severe and winter weather. Todd Demers also does well and has lived in the area long enough to know his stuff. Austin Onek is also very knowledgeable and is also great during severe and winter weather coverage. I also feel Claudia Barr and Richard Ransom make a great team.

Ive got no personal problem with anyone at at station. That being said, I do like WREG out of them all, and the fella with the bowtie on fox... I need to start watching him to compare. I dont get up there much.
I like how when theres an unknown... like last monday, where it was borderline and could go either way, WREG showed 2 totally different options. Paraphrasing: "ok guys, we could see 2 different events... this could play out over the day... or this very different event."
Id rather them communicate to the public that telling the future is sometimes very difficult to do.

[lyngo]

I miss Bill Hall......

[msdawg911]

Ive got no personal problem with anyone at at station. That being said, I do like WREG out of them all, and the fella with the bowtie on fox... I need to start watching him to compare. I dont get up there much.
I like how when theres an unknown... like last monday, where it was borderline and could go either way, WREG showed 2 totally different options. Paraphrasing: "ok guys, we could see 2 different events... this could play out over the day... or this very different event."
Id rather them communicate to the public that telling the future is sometimes very difficult to do.

I have to agree with you. I like to watch every station in Memphis, and many times I even side with WMC. Though WMC's winter forecasts may be conservative (or non-existent), you have to understand their reasoning behind that conservatism. Imagine you forecast a significant snow for Memphis on Sunday night. Then, because of a slight shift in the system, Memphis only gets a cold rain. The next morning, Ron Childers (or whoever is working the morning shift) will have hundreds of angry phone calls and emails from people upset about the forecast, including complaints from parents who were planning for a snow day with their children. This would take away from their proper workload and they would essentially do damage control all day. On the other hand, if they barely mention snow (or not mention it at all), and it does indeed snow five inches, most people will be alright with it. Some will be upset by the missed forecast, but the volume of complaints will be much lower. Think about it: if you were in their shoes, wouldn't you do the same thing? If not, give it one big winter weather event, and I bet you would be more conservative the next time.

People in Memphis become insane whenever there is a slight rumor of freezing rain. If WMC and others ramped up their winter weather forecasts, the grocery stores would run out of milk and bread weekly.

Of course, I like all stations. I feel that WMC does the best in severe weather situations, with WREG a close second (though they really like to over-hype things). WMC likes to hype their toys (our radar is further to the west so we detect storms faster). WHBQ likes to hype Joey Sulipeck's bowtie and how they don't hype anything. And, WPTY...well, who knows. No one watches that channel. (Just kidding...I've met their meteorologists and they were very friendly. Like others have said, their news department needs help.)

And, now I'll become invisible again.

[bugalou]

I have to agree with you. I like to watch every station in Memphis, and many times I even side with WMC. Though WMC's winter forecasts may be conservative (or non-existent), you have to understand their reasoning behind that conservatism. Imagine you forecast a significant snow for Memphis on Sunday night. Then, because of a slight shift in the system, Memphis only gets a cold rain. The next morning, Ron Childers (or whoever is working the morning shift) will have hundreds of angry phone calls and emails from people upset about the forecast, including complaints from parents who were planning for a snow day with their children. This would take away from their proper workload and they would essentially do damage control all day. On the other hand, if they barely mention snow (or not mention it at all), and it does indeed snow five inches, most people will be alright with it. Some will be upset by the missed forecast, but the volume of complaints will be much lower. Think about it: if you were in their shoes, wouldn't you do the same thing? If not, give it one big winter weather event, and I bet you would be more conservative the next time.

People in Memphis become insane whenever there is a slight rumor of freezing rain. If WMC and others ramped up their winter weather forecasts, the grocery stores would run out of milk and bread weekly.

Of course, I like all stations. I feel that WMC does the best in severe weather situations, with WREG a close second (though they really like to over-hype things). WMC likes to hype their toys (our radar is further to the west so we detect storms faster). WHBQ likes to hype Joey Sulipeck's bowtie and how they don't hype anything. And, WPTY...well, who knows. No one watches that channel. (Just kidding...I've met their meteorologists and they were very friendly. Like others have said, their news department needs help.)

And, now I'll become invisible again.

Ehh... I guess I can see that reasoning, but you can just just as easily mention the possibility of what could happen without causing panic or chaos.  WMC seems to be almost condescending at times (even towards the NWS) about winter forecasts and can be completely dismissive with no real scientific basis.

As far as severe weather, I only watch the TV if I lose internet connection (which is rare between my cable and cell phone).  During the super Tuesday outbreak I had to do it old school with the coat hanger antenna to the TV cause my internet connection was down and the cell tower was also down.  Outside of those rare times, you can't beat these forums, GRL3, ewall, twitter, and the hundreds of other resources out there.

[Charles L.]

I will say that WMC does have the best severe weather coverage. The night of Super Tuesday I was watching their coverage before it came this way and they did a very good job of getting reports out to the public and following storms.

[WFayetteTN]

My main point I suppose was that if its truely a complex system, that can easily go either way, communicate that to the public. Like if theres rain coming in and you think the low is going to be 33/34, youre better off communicating both scenarios, rather than flipping a coin, and broadcasting an all rain event. If its all rain, thats perfectly fine. Around Memphis, my wishcast is always for rain over ice. But if you say its ice and its only rain, its a relief when I crank up the ole car  for that drive in to work.
I havent watched many local tv guys this winter at all... and I didnt see the ron childers "all rain" comment that was within 6 hrs of the 3/4" icing event... And Im not anti-wmc.
I had a friend recently ask me if some of the local mets owned a "weather rock". For him, totally not a weather geek by any stretch of the imagination, to mention that, tells you that this season has been forecasted quite inaccurate locally. 

[KG4GKE]

IMHO, (and in the Cliff Notes version of how I see it): when it comes to an either-or situation, I think that people deserve to know the scenarios as they stand at the current forecast time. Especially when the next system is on the horizon and several days out.

Winter weather forecasting is one of my least favorite duties, just due to the sheer number of ways the forecast can change. Part of my studies for synoptic forecasting classes at The University of Kansas were to post-mortem earlier studies done by other students to find out why or why not the forecast did or did not work. It was a very eye-opening look at the winter weather climate and to find out more about how challenging looking into the atmosphere can be.

A lot of the general public (not a criticism, just stating an observation) don't understand that. Being able to say "yes it will / no it won't" as observed in this, and other, threads is a difficult matter for the perception of accuracy from the public. Which is why (again, IMHO) it is far easier to tell the audience about the possibilities either way (or however many ways there are) farther out, and then guide them in over the next several days into the event's arrival. It's not waffling, or wavering, or fear of not getting it right... it's the desire to make sure the public - our audience and viewers - have the most complete information, and that includes, by definition, the options of what may or may not (in our forecast opinion) may happen.

For severe weather situations, translating the SPC's forecasts for the public's benefit is often trashed as being 'over the top' or 'alarmist'. I don't see it that way; when it comes to severe weather, I would rather let people know about the situation as soon as possible and as often as possible on our newscasts for their benefit and protection. The one thing I've heard over the years when it comes to severe weather is: "I had no idea this could happen." To those who accuse me of fearmongering, you don't know me and how I do business, and I will challenge anyone who decides to classify me as such. I would rather run the risk of telling people that's it (severe weather) is possible rather than having someone not know and run into trouble later because we did not mention it.

OK, off the soapbox for now.

[Eric]

IMHO, (and in the Cliff Notes version of how I see it): when it comes to an either-or situation, I think that people deserve to know the scenarios as they stand at the current forecast time. Especially when the next system is on the horizon and several days out.

Winter weather forecasting is one of my least favorite duties, just due to the sheer number of ways the forecast can change. Part of my studies for synoptic forecasting classes at The University of Kansas were to post-mortem earlier studies done by other students to find out why or why not the forecast did or did not work. It was a very eye-opening look at the winter weather climate and to find out more about how challenging looking into the atmosphere can be.

A lot of the general public (not a criticism, just stating an observation) don't understand that. Being able to say "yes it will / no it won't" as observed in this, and other, threads is a difficult matter for the perception of accuracy from the public. Which is why (again, IMHO) it is far easier to tell the audience about the possibilities either way (or however many ways there are) farther out, and then guide them in over the next several days into the event's arrival. It's not waffling, or wavering, or fear of not getting it right... it's the desire to make sure the public - our audience and viewers - have the most complete information, and that includes, by definition, the options of what may or may not (in our forecast opinion) may happen.

For severe weather situations, translating the SPC's forecasts for the public's benefit is often trashed as being 'over the top' or 'alarmist'. I don't see it that way; when it comes to severe weather, I would rather let people know about the situation as soon as possible and as often as possible on our newscasts for their benefit and protection. The one thing I've heard over the years when it comes to severe weather is: "I had no idea this could happen." To those who accuse me of fearmongering, you don't know me and how I do business, and I will challenge anyone who decides to classify me as such. I would rather run the risk of telling people that's it (severe weather) is possible rather than having someone not know and run into trouble later because we did not mention it.

OK, off the soapbox for now.

Excellent post....thanks for sharing!

[bugalou]

IMHO, (and in the Cliff Notes version of how I see it): when it comes to an either-or situation, I think that people deserve to know the scenarios as they stand at the current forecast time. Especially when the next system is on the horizon and several days out.

Winter weather forecasting is one of my least favorite duties, just due to the sheer number of ways the forecast can change. Part of my studies for synoptic forecasting classes at The University of Kansas were to post-mortem earlier studies done by other students to find out why or why not the forecast did or did not work. It was a very eye-opening look at the winter weather climate and to find out more about how challenging looking into the atmosphere can be.

A lot of the general public (not a criticism, just stating an observation) don't understand that. Being able to say "yes it will / no it won't" as observed in this, and other, threads is a difficult matter for the perception of accuracy from the public. Which is why (again, IMHO) it is far easier to tell the audience about the possibilities either way (or however many ways there are) farther out, and then guide them in over the next several days into the event's arrival. It's not waffling, or wavering, or fear of not getting it right... it's the desire to make sure the public - our audience and viewers - have the most complete information, and that includes, by definition, the options of what may or may not (in our forecast opinion) may happen.

For severe weather situations, translating the SPC's forecasts for the public's benefit is often trashed as being 'over the top' or 'alarmist'. I don't see it that way; when it comes to severe weather, I would rather let people know about the situation as soon as possible and as often as possible on our newscasts for their benefit and protection. The one thing I've heard over the years when it comes to severe weather is: "I had no idea this could happen." To those who accuse me of fearmongering, you don't know me and how I do business, and I will challenge anyone who decides to classify me as such. I would rather run the risk of telling people that's it (severe weather) is possible rather than having someone not know and run into trouble later because we did not mention it.

OK, off the soapbox for now.

  I really wish all TV mets thought this way.  It is a highly complex subject though and goes far beyond just meteorology (eg: political, economical, sociological, etc) but for me personally, I would much rather know what could play out versus one single solution.  I can only imagine some of the frustrating scenarios you run into on your side of things.

[Math/Met]

For severe weather situations, translating the SPC's forecasts for the public's benefit is often trashed as being 'over the top' or 'alarmist'. I don't see it that way; when it comes to severe weather, I would rather let people know about the situation as soon as possible and as often as possible on our newscasts for their benefit and protection. The one thing I've heard over the years when it comes to severe weather is: "I had no idea this could happen." To those who accuse me of fearmongering, you don't know me and how I do business, and I will challenge anyone who decides to classify me as such. I would rather run the risk of telling people that's it (severe weather) is possible rather than having someone not know and run into trouble later because we did not mention it.

A professor of one of my meteorology classes at UNCA would start every class by giving an overview of the weather for the next few days. One day, he showed us the Storm Prediction Center page that outlined the potential for a major outbreak of severe weather.  He then gave us his ideas about the system and seemed very concerned.  His comments were basically, “this will be a major severe weather outbreak with several destructive tornadoes. Homes will be destroyed and people WILL die”. He then told us to watch the news after the event because there would be people saying, “we had no warning”. Of course, he was right. On the first interview I watched, the person said “we didn’t have any warning”. Yet, the Storm Prediction Center had the event nailed two days in advance.
 
You just can’t assume that the public is keeping up with the weather possibilities like most of us on these boards.

[InMemphis]

Thank you Austen for the wonderful post. I have enjoyed your forecasts since your 1997 arrival to Memphis.

[Cyclonicjunkie]

For severe weather situations, translating the SPC's forecasts for the public's benefit is often trashed as being 'over the top' or 'alarmist'. I don't see it that way; when it comes to severe weather, I would rather let people know about the situation as soon as possible and as often as possible on our newscasts for their benefit and protection. The one thing I've heard over the years when it comes to severe weather is: "I had no idea this could happen." To those who accuse me of fearmongering, you don't know me and how I do business, and I will challenge anyone who decides to classify me as such. I would rather run the risk of telling people that's it (severe weather) is possible rather than having someone not know and run into trouble later because we did not mention it.

 

Severe is not my forte but if it was I would have to agree with you whole heartedly.