Lets Talk About TV Meteorologists and Winter Weather

[bugalou]

Since this subject often becomes a side track on some of the main storm threads, I thought it would be good to start a new thread to talk about the subject.

Basically, here in Memphis TV meteorologists (WMC in particular) are always pretty ("ultra" in WMC's case) conservative when it comes to forecasting winter weather.  So much so it makes you questions if its more for political/sociological reasons vs pure meteorological scientific reasons.  This seems to be a trend for most TV news weathermen in the south (at least from what I can tell on here).  I am not sure if its the station putting pressure on them from a ratings stand point. Predicting snow and then busting seems to draw up more negative buzz versus not predicting snow and then it happening as it is a lot easier to play the "surprise system" card.  It could also be their attempt to not cause chaos as the average Joe freaks out at the very mention of snow around these parts.  

These approaches towards weather forecasting can be particularly affective as you are statistically better off betting against winter weather in the south from a climatological stand point, but it can also bite you at times.  WMC has busted particularly hard this winter in Memphis betting against winter.  I don't really want this thread to turn into a complete bashfest on TV meteorologists.  Sure, it is fair to bring up particular busts and have a little fun, but lets not get personal.  With that being said, lets hear some of the big busts you know about, and why you think this trend occurs.

[tennessee storm09]

i can remember a big time event back in the wiinter of 1977 of january. i was 13 then. the tv mets, and yes it was wmc by the way, was saying just maybe flurries or backsdie snow showers. and we ened up getting about 10 inches of heavy snow, i will never forget that one. but for some reason not bashing them by any means, wmc has always prety much went against winter weather for some reason. i always love to look at dave browns face after a big winter event hits the midsouth

[jmundie]

i can remember a big time event back in the wiinter of 1977 of january. i was 13 then. the tv mets, and yes it was wmc by the way, was saying just maybe flurries or backsdie snow showers. and we ened up getting about 10 inches of heavy snow, i will never forget that one. but for some reason not bashing them by any means, wmc has always prety much went against winter weather for some reason. i always love to look at dave browns face after a big winter event hits the midsouth

What WMC does is not meteorology. Its a disservice to the community, in my opinion. Granted, they are right most of the time. But in the case of snow, something that is difficult to predict due to our latitude, their job shouldn't be to play the odds, rather warn of possibilities. I'd have a lot more respect for them if they said "there is the possibility of big snow, but you all know as well as we do, that these things don't pan out like we think more often than not. The computer models are saying X, so its a good idea to at least be aware of the fact. In all honesty though, we won't know til it starts happening."

But Dave Brown coming out and saying with near absolute certainty that something isn't going to occur, when the meteorology says otherwise.... it almost seems like fraud. Anybody who has lived in the midsouth for 10 years can get up there and say "its not gonna snow" and be right 80% of the time.

Obviously, this is a slightly over the top example, but its like someone pretending to be a doctor and telling everyone that comes into their office that they don't have AIDS.... odds are they don't. But if they do, the doctor has committed malpractice because his diagnosis is based on the odds rather than medicine.

[WFayetteTN]

A few years ago, and it may still be the same now, but WMC only gave the weather segment 4 minutes to do the full weather at the nightly news. Other stations had quite a bit more time. Back in 2001, we had training storms in Crittenden County, AR. I was running the Skywarn Net and collecting all the reports and getting them into NWS. there were 21 tornado warnings between 5p-12a that night in January. That era.. (1999-2001ish) started a weather war in Memphis. WREG 3 became the wall-to-wall coverage channel. They even once interrupted the World Series to track Severe Weather. I am fine with that, others were offended. We worked with several local stations and put a ham radio in at Fox 13, and WREG. Austen Onek is a ham too by the way. but back then WMC didnt think that the weather needed as much on-air time. This was Pre-John Bryant era. It always seemed that their radar was not as accurate as other stations. Maybe its just the color gradients. But they always seemed to show a storm with very conservative colors. As a longtime (loyal) subscriber to WeatherTap, WMC seemed to have outdated equipment. Maybe it went back to the station manager not putting any stock in the weather. They have since gotten ViperRadar, and I havent watched WMC in a long long time, so I dont know if their air time has increased, or if their new radar system is any better now. WREG seems to add a little hype. Next time you watch Dave Brown, time the segment and see if he has more time now. Im curious.
I dont watch the local mets very often anymore. I get my short term from WeatherTap, my severe weather nowcasts from skewT and now I get my long range from this board.
This reply might add value to your opener, or it may be totally off the topic.  

[Kevin]

Dave Brown is...Dave Brown. He's always been that way...always will. He's like that with severe weather too...though not quite as bad. He's just an "ultra-conservative" forecaster. His team in general...though independent...are also pressured to follow his lead...so once Dave retires...WMC will improve I believe...though comparatively they may well remain the most conservative Memphis station.

That said...Memphis overall is a conservative market IMO...no matter the weather-type that is on the horizon. WREG is the most aggressive...and can border on unnecessary hype at times...almost the anti-WMC. WHBQ generally follows whatever MEG/NWS is saying...and WPTY/WLMT actually has the best/most scientifically based forecasts and forecasters in this city of them all...though their news in general is about the most pitiful thing I've ever seen.

[Kevin]

A few years ago, and it may still be the same now, but WMC only gave the weather segment 4 minutes to do the full weather at the nightly news. Other stations had quite a bit more time. Back in 2001, we had training storms in Crittenden County, AR. I was running the Skywarn Net and collecting all the reports and getting them into NWS. there were 21 tornado warnings between 5p-12a that night in January. That era.. (1999-2001ish) started a weather war in Memphis. WREG 3 became the wall-to-wall coverage channel. They even once interrupted the World Series to track Severe Weather. I am fine with that, others were offended. We worked with several local stations and put a ham radio in at Fox 13, and WREG. Austen Onek is a ham too by the way. but back then WMC didnt think that the weather needed as much on-air time. This was Pre-John Bryant era. It always seemed that their radar was not as accurate as other stations. Maybe its just the color gradients. But they always seemed to show a storm with very conservative colors. As a longtime (loyal) subscriber to WeatherTap, WMC seemed to have outdated equipment. Maybe it went back to the station manager not putting any stock in the weather. They have since gotten ViperRadar, and I havent watched WMC in a long long time, so I dont know if their air time has increased, or if their new radar system is any better now. WREG seems to add a little hype. Next time you watch Dave Brown, time the segment and see if he has more time now. Im curious.
I dont watch the local mets very often anymore. I get my short term from WeatherTap, my severe weather nowcasts from skewT and now I get my long range from this board.
This reply might add value to your opener, or it may be totally off the topic.  

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WMC does wall-to-wall coverage now...all of them do...for tornado warnings and sometimes severe thunderstorm warnings (especially in the metro). D.B. has been known to publicly bash MEG for their warnings on-air though in that time...saying some things that are really very sad and speak of the relationship between MEG and WMC that continues to this day...also showing his general lack of knowledge of the finer points of meterology (Dave Brown is NOT a meteorologist...his only degree is in Communications) and may be fueling some of the excessive "going against the curve" that you see as well.

[bugalou]

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WMC does wall-to-wall coverage now...all of them do...for tornado warnings and sometimes severe thunderstorm warnings (especially in the metro). D.B. has been known to publicly bash MEG for their warnings on-air though in that time...saying some things that are really very sad and speak of the relationship between MEG and WMC that continues to this day...also showing his general lack of knowledge of the finer points of meterology (Dave Brown is NOT a meteorologist...his only degree is in Communications) and may be fueling some of the excessive "going against the curve" that you see as well.

Oh lord.  I forgot about Dave bashing on MEG.  Some of the stuff he has said about them in the past is very unprofessional.  There is a certain level of respect you should give your colleagues and peers even if your opinion differs from theirs.

I don't watch TV meteorologists much anymore myself.  The internet is just a much better source for data vs TV.  I do like Austin Onek though, as he seems like he is still very much engaged in the scientific side of forecasting.

[Kevin]

Oh lord.  I forgot about Dave bashing on MEG.  Some of the stuff he has said about them in the past is very unprofessional.  There is a certain level of respect you should give your colleagues and peers even if your opinion differs from theirs.

I don't watch TV meteorologists much anymore myself.  The internet is just a much better source for data vs TV.  I do like Austin Onek though, as he seems like he is still very much engaged in the scientific side of forecasting.

Austen Onek is very enjoyable...but (and no offense to him if he's reading!) Mark Walden over on WPTY is my choice for best TV meteorologist in Memphis in terms of using scientific rationale...even on-air. As I hinted above though...those folks at 24/30 are hurting in some way...its like watching a high-school production at times...and they've always been the bottom-feeders since the Fox/ABC switch in the mid-90s that got them started up.

[InMemphis]

Every forecaster at WMC has been around Memphis and has seen some of the major events that have taken place. They often seem to act as if nothing major could ever happen.

[Curt]

Dave Brown is...Dave Brown. He's always been that way...always will. He's like that with severe weather too...though not quite as bad. He's just an "ultra-conservative" forecaster. His team in general...though independent...are also pressured to follow his lead...so once Dave retires...WMC will improve I believe...though comparatively they may well remain the most conservative Memphis station.

That said...Memphis overall is a conservative market IMO...no matter the weather-type that is on the horizon. WREG is the most aggressive...and can border on unnecessary hype at times...almost the anti-WMC. WHBQ generally follows whatever MEG/NWS is saying...and WPTY/WLMT actually has the best/most scientifically based forecasts and forecasters in this city of them all...though their news in general is about the most pitiful thing I've ever seen.

LOL Kevin!

[Mr. William E. Brantley]

I like All of the Memphis and Nashville TV Weather Men and Ladies !
They all have their ways of presenting the weather.
Channel 4 and 5 in Nashville also like to differ on occasions.
I do not get to watch Channel 2 Nashville : But I see their forecast posted here a lot.
And I really like reading those to.
Each station always tries to find ways to get higher ratings than the other stations.
I agree that TV 5 Memphis over defends their radar system.
In general I agree that now the internet actually has the most means of various links of sevices on the weather.
So many Media sources have now made news, weather , and sports on the internet a Huge deal.
Some of them are even allowing bloggers to post blogs on their sites.
Some of the Forums who once only allowed Digital stations are now allowing hand typed Blogs.
This is so cool for me since I still like to type and copy and paste most of my blogs.
Well this is my two cents worth.  

[bonzomemphis]

Living in the Mid-South, I get very frustrated with our local mets.

If it seems like they're actually trying, I can cut them some slack when they're wrong. But too often WMC and Fox13 just seem to be mailing it in.

It's particularly annoying when you turn on WMC during a winter weather situation, and they've got 2 mets in there at the desk at the same time (usually Childers and Bryant) and they STILL can't get things right. Sometimes you'll turn on the tv and they've got watch/warning graphics up that are 4 hours old. They're on there talking about how Memphis metro is under a certain kind of advisory, and the vast majority of the people watching already know it's been changed.

I can even deal with a station being overly conservative. But WMC is blatant, in-your-face, 100 percent certain about their outlook, and often times they're just flat-out wrong. A couple of weeks ago during our icing event, Childers was saying "it will absolutely be all rain in Memphis" the day before. Of course, he was wrong.

Then last night they gave the all clear and said Memphis absolutely wouldn't see any snow, and of course we saw near white out conditions for about an hour. Not enough to cause widespread travel problems, but heavy blowing snow with 25mph+ wind gusts is a far cry from "it's gonna be all rain."

I've always thought WREG was the most fair. They have the most neutral mets in the market, in my opinion. I really like their weather personalities. They typically play it down the middle and just forecast without a whole lot of emotion or sensationalism. I'd MUCH rather a station be overly cautious and warn of the possibilities and then be wrong, as opposed to the Dave Brown school of thought of just always saying nothing is going to happen until you reach your arm out the window and feel snow. Better to overestimate and be wrong than to downplay and run the risk of folks putting themselves in danger.

I also laugh at some of the radar and "predictor" products in Memphis tv. WPTY's radar map looks like something a child would scribble if you gave them a box of crayons. It's not the fault of the mets. They don't pull the pursestrings. It's just a joke when you see a giant blob of color with no definition whatsoever. It's pointless. WMC's 'predictor' is a joke, too.

I'd rank our market something like this:
1) WREG
2a) WPTY
2b) WHBQ





46) WMC

[bugalou]

46) WMC

LOL!
Yeah the Childers thing during our mini ice storm was a pretty bad call, especially after some of the power outages that ended up occurring from the "rain".   I suppose the average person could care less about this stuff though and it only annoys us internet weather geeks.   

[JJJackson]

WMC does do something that the other stations do not do -- as far as I know -- with their online weather chats. They put out the same screwy forecasts on those chats but do get more in-depth with the models.

They've got a couple of meteorologists on staff, so I don't know what the issue with their forecasts are, but they're not even really all that good with nowcasting.

I agree that Mark Walden seems to be the best guy with the science.

[EcceQuamBonum]

I only go to school in Sewanee; I'm originally from Maryville, so I grew up with all the Knoxville mets.  In fact, we don't really have cable in the dorms, so I couldn't even tell you the names of the Chatty mets.

All the same, WBIR is the only station I watch when I'm home.  I've always had a great deal of respect for Todd Howell because he carries the job off professionally and with a minimum of fuss.  Mike Witcher isn't too bad, either.

WBIR also does the online weather chats during severe weather events.  I've always enjoyed them because they tend to be real entertaining, especially when every other question for the forecasters tends to be "ARE WE GOING TO SEE ANY TORNADOES WITH THIS STORM??"

That said, I also have a certain fondness for Matt Hinkin at WATE because when I was in first grade he read a weather question on the air that I'd submitted to him.