2/20-22 Snow Chances

[Tom23]

it hasn't even been modeled (well until the 18z which just showed 1993 redux)

the long term pattern guys have been ringing the bell for a storm that wasn't showing up in the models until today. Around the 26th something spectacular is going to happen.  Big cold, shortwave coming underneath the righe out west, phasing, the hole nine yards.

I wouldn't call something a fantasy storm when it's predicted accurately before the models even show it. I'd call it a general major threat.

Same point here. However, it IS just an educated guess, and may fail when it is go time. I was just saying that it bears watching, not that its a threat, but it does look interesting. If you want to follow something big that may be the last snow this year, then this is the one.

[snowdog]

So a lot of people say "No way its going to be a lakes cutter, the GFS is out to lunch", etc.  Then what happens today?  The model everyone praises as the best model (Euro) follows the GFS as a lakes cutter. Why I love following the weather, because it really is unpredictable. 

[WXHD]

That looks like a S***storm. An actual dumping of snow in the SE.  I'm not wanting one that weekend, of all weekends.

[tennessee storm09]

the BIG DOG  is lurking

[SnowSeek]

What I find amazing and incredibly sickening, Bastardi actually believes next week there is the potential for 2 deep south storms that would potentially miss us again, JB even threw around the B word.

This will go down as one of the most epic winters for the entire Eastern US with the exception of a swath of Tennessee lol.  Ah we can't complain to bad though we have had a great time following these near misses and a few successes.  But can you imagine having two back to back nice size storms suppressed to our south like the last storm?  Unbearable!

Obviously I haven't given up on anything yet because it's so far out.  Just passing along some info

[WXHD]

There's no way this stays that far south. We are solidly in the game if this pans out. Though, it is the 18z.  That being said, we're moving next weekend, this is the first time in my life I haven't wanted snow. And, we're moving to the bottom of Trimble Road! Best hill in Green Hills.

[snowdog]

There's no way this stays that far south.

I feel like I've heard that recently...then saw snow in the FLorida panhandle.   

[Crockett]

So a lot of people say "No way its going to be a lakes cutter, the GFS is out to lunch", etc.  Then what happens today?  The model everyone praises as the best model (Euro) follows the GFS as a lakes cutter. Why I love following the weather, because it really is unpredictable. 

Just to add to that, we've already been here before. Remember Christmas week? We were all saying there's no way we get a cutter in that pattern...but that's exactly the way it panned out. I learned something that week that I should've already known: Never say never when it comes to winter weather.

[jmundie]

Just to add to that, we've already been here before. Remember Christmas week? We were all saying there's no way we get a cutter in that pattern...but that's exactly the way it panned out. I learned something that week that I should've already known: Never say never when it comes to winter weather.

True... but all anyone is saying is something big is going to happen in the east. That other storm, we knew something big was coming, but it was for oklahoma, texas, arkansas, and missouri.

Maybe its a redux for them. But we haven't seen a storm take that track since December. I'm not betting on an oklahoma special. Worst case scenario with this thing, it dumps from dallas to jonesboro, to paducah, to louisville.

Which would be just close enough to keep us watching until the last minute.

[jmundie]

And.... once again, GFS throws another completely different solution to us for the 22nd.

Unreal how bad this model is. But its trended more positive tilt and weaker from 12z and 18z.

Definitely not a lakes cutter now.

[jmundie]

This is the same time period at 500mb. Great consistancy GFS. 

18z

0z


Just for the record, this is 5 days out, and the model clearly has ZERO idea what's going to happen.

[snowdog]

On the last clipper system the RUC couldnt even nail it from 6 hours away. 

[SnowSeek]

Looks like the old saying that the closer to march the more you should rely on climatology over model hugging...Now if i could just do either

[JJJackson]

18z has picked up on a Tuesday storm but it keeps it confined to East TX to SW MS.