2/20-22 Snow Chances

[Eric]

Guys, my eyes are on the late week snowstorm potential for next week. Looks interesting. If anyone wants a better sense of what I'm talking about, go to Talkweather.com and look at the forum for Late Week Snowstorm.

Why?  I'm fairly sure the same models they look at are the same ones we see.  And I'm fairly sure they're saying the same thing.......

[Eric]

HPC's take = EURO/EURO ens all the way, discounts GFS/CMC as "disparate"...pretty funny. Gives an interesting indication for whats to come AFTER 20-22, which could get interesting winter wx wise.

Didn't the HPC discount the low swinging THAT far south a few weeks ago?  At this point, I'm going to say even the HPC is out to lunch...........along with everything else.

[jmundie]

Gfs has literally no clue right now. Lake cutter will not happen with the blocking we have. 12 z looks like it's finally figuring that out, trending much further south, and it's finally found the arctic outbreak next week... So much so thy it's suppressing the threat around the 26th into te gulf.

I think we have a chance at a decent event north of 40 for Monday, but our best, and maybe last chance looks to be around the 26th (the storm the gfs had as a lakes cutter yesterday and suppressed into te gulf today)

[SnowSeek]

From what I read today, the model battle is between the CAD and the EURO.

I am pulling for the EURO but I have to rely on second hand info because I am uneducated on the EURO lol.  Here is the discussion that outlines the battle going on.

http://www.wxrisk.com/

[SnowSeek]

Mundie, Is this GFS over doing the suppression for the latter event?

[WXHD]

That is an neat site,wxrisk.com. This is getting interesting, however I do not need any adverse weather the last week of Feb. It's moving time.

[jmundie]

Mundie, Is this GFS over doing the suppression for the latter event?

On the 12z.... probably. But two runs ago it was a lakes cutter.

Its getting to that time of year where climatology impacts the models the further out you go. We're nearing the end of met winter
and the models almost always struggle when seasons change.

I'd stick with the Euro outside of 4 days, especially when its got support from the other globals (whereas the gfs and NAM have been trying to change the pattern)


Also, something to think about, that Bastardi has mentioned, is that most of our models were developed and tweaked during a cyclical warm period, and that may affect their performance going into, what looks to be a colder cyclical period. We'll see.

[dwagner88]

I have to say that not having a serious threat to track over the last two days has finally helped me catch up on the studying that I have missed over basically the last MONTH. It's hard being a student and a winter weather weenie all at once! I may actually root for the weather to warm to rain only until midterms are over.

[Curt]

12z EURO is a lakes cutter. "Hearing the nail in the coffin".

[Tom23]

12z EURO is a lakes cutter. "Hearing the nail in the coffin".

This would most likely be too warm anyways for snow. So I'm not concerned with this potential bust that really never got started anyways. I'm tellin ya, look to late next week if you want to follow a winter storm.

[Eric]

This would most likely be too warm anyways for snow. So I'm not concerned with this potential bust that really never got started anyways. I'm tellin ya, look to late next week if you want to follow a winter storm.

Ahh...one of those 200+ hour fantasy storms.....

[Tom23]

Ahh...one of those 200+ hour fantasy storms.....

Right. But this may be our last shot at snow this season, so I don't mind if it was 500 hours out, I'd still be watching it.

[WFayetteTN]

GGem shows a lakes cutter as well.  Hmmm...I'll wait and see the Euro run tonight but about time to pull the plug on this one.  The end of the month is really getting hyped.  It better produce.   

A friend at work said that the farmers almanac shows a big bangin' end to the month..... if thats whats hyping all this chatter on all the blogs, i dont know about all that... Hey, Im just sayin'. 

[Nashville_wx]

Right. But this may be our last shot at snow this season, so I don't mind if it was 500 hours out, I'd still be watching it.

 

[jmundie]

Ahh...one of those 200+ hour fantasy storms.....

it hasn't even been modeled (well until the 18z which just showed 1993 redux)

the long term pattern guys have been ringing the bell for a storm that wasn't showing up in the models until today. Around the 26th something spectacular is going to happen.  Big cold, shortwave coming underneath the righe out west, phasing, the hole nine yards.

I wouldn't call something a fantasy storm when it's predicted accurately before the models even show it. I'd call it a general major threat.