2/12-13 Winter Weather Threat

[Thundersnow]

Speaking of next... the 2/8 12Z ECMWF shows a possble winter event on 2/15.
EDIT: 2/9 0Z GFS also shows a threat on the 15th.

Looks like a potent clipper... maybe good for a few inches, at face value.

[Cameron K.]

Looks like a potent clipper... maybe good for a few inches, at face value.

Saw that too. I can't start a thread one model run, but dagum, when's the last time we've had a good old clipper system.

[Clay]

Yeah, that would drop 1-3". A couple of those and we're close to our seasonal average.

[Sbeagles]

Hey guys clear me up on something I saw this stuff a few minutes ago and now I've confused myself which is easy to do. Are we talking about two separate systems here one over the weekend and another say monday or tuesday or just one potential event? I know the one that we were hoping for around Friday is taking a nose dive and at this rate will be suppressed to the south pole by friday. Sorry I tried thinking post 10 o'clock and confused myself. Thanks in advance.

[Thundersnow]

Sorry, the clipper discussed above is a side conversation about what models have shown for a system the first of next week.

The system this thread is talking about doesn't look good for us on the models right now.

[Sbeagles]

Sorry, the clipper discussed above is a side conversation about what models have shown for a system the first of next week.

The system this thread is talking about doesn't look good for us on the models right now.

Yep i know the system that this thread is about looks awful, it was suppressed way down into the gulf on the 0z. I just didn't know if you guys were talking about a clipper for the end of the weekend and then another potential event first of the week or just the one system. I think I got it figured out though hopefully. Thanks

[tennessee storm09]

well congrats to northern la. you get the storm. but the 6z shows a nice clipper system at 126 hours. looks like 2-4 possible. mmm

[Sbeagles]

Yea I don't get it. If both Friday and the late weekend/ early next week systems pan out their both going to be suppressed extremely bad.

[rhea weather]

[Coach B]

Per James Spann:

SNOW DAY FRIDAY? There is always great weeping and gnashing of teeth ahead of any winter weather possibility in Alabama; but there is no need to get really worked up about any specific solution on Friday until we get today’s system of out here. Say it with me… “One storm at a time”! We will be able to get down to the nitty gritty details tonight and tomorrow. But for now…

Watch the Weather Xtreme video and you will see all global models continue the idea of the deepest moisture on Friday over South Alabama, with only potential for light snow up this way. The NAM and the GFS are the driest, the GEM shows the most moisture up this way. For now I think the best course of action is to simply mention a chance of mostly light snow Friday, with the best accumulation potential down toward the U.S. 80 corridor (Demopolis, Selma, Montgomery, Opelika). But, this most likely will change as we get closer to Friday. Climatologically speaking, the GFS and the NAM low position doesn’t make sense; there could very well be an adjustment northward in coming days. We will see.

Of course it makes sense, we are trying to battle our way out of a snow drought. 

[tennessee storm09]

yeah what dont make sense is the low is to far freaking south. the cold air we are getting shouldnt supress that deep down. o well we will see i guess. i still got my eyes on that clipper. best looking clipper i have seen on models for our area in a while.

[Sbeagles]

Yep I've already turned my attention to that clipper to. I'm hoping for a surprise later and friday's storm comes way north but I'm not counting on it. I can't remember the last good clipper we got in this area.

[Crockett]

This is a rather juicy looking clipper...as clippers go, of course.

12z 500mb. We need that baby to slide further south but that isn't likely to happen.


Total QPF:

[tennessee storm09]

tell you one thing that looks for sure to happen. that clipper sure looks to bring the cold with it for a while. looking like a cold supress pattern shaping up again after the clipper. yea we need that a tad more to the south for the best mosture.

[tennessee storm09]

nws out of memphis (meg) is being quite skeptical of the low track for this system. they seem to think it still will trend more north. but dont know how more north to help us. maybe the souther tier of the midsouth.( northernmiss. northern alabama