2/12-13 Winter Weather Threat

[tennessee storm09]

man if only hour 372 on the 12 z gfs would come true, man what a storm there. i know its 372. but look at the weather porn on that baby.

[Woodvegas]

FWIW the 2/9 0Z ECMWF has the low/wave north of the GFS's progged position and actually sends a little light precip up into southern middle and east TN. It is significantly wetter than the GFS for Mississippi, Alabama and Georgia.

May be time to start a new thread for the clipper system to avoid more confusion.

[Woodvegas]

HPC favors a more northern track, but will it be enough to do us any good?

PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
826 AM EST TUE FEB 09 2010
 
VALID 12Z SAT FEB 13 2010 - 12Z TUE FEB 16 2010
 

...WINTER STORM FOR THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES AND SOUTHEAST...


PRELIMINARY UPDATE...

USED THE 00Z/09 ECMWF FOR DAYS 3 AND 4 ACROSS THE NATION...WITH A
GRADUAL INCORPORATION OF THE 00Z/09 ECENS MEAN THEREAFTER TO
ADDRESS THE UNCERTAINTIES IN SYNOPTIC DETAIL INHERENT TO THAT TIME
RANGE.  PREFER THE NORTHERN MOST GUIDANCE WITH THE WAVE CROSSING
THE GULF OF MEXICO EARLY IN THE PERIOD...WITH MANY WAVES IN THE
SOUTHERN STREAM THIS WINTER ULTIMATELY TRACKING LESS SUPPRESSED
THAN THE MODELS INITIALLY PROG.   THE MANUAL PROGS INDICATE SNOW
AND ICE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR SOUTH...EXCEPT FOR SOUTH
CAROLINA WHERE WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY TO SPREAD ALL THE
WAY TO THE COAST.  CLIPPER SYSTEMS WILL BE THE ORDER OF THE WEEK
FOR THE PLAINS AND MIDWEST...WITH THE MEAN LONGWAVE RIDGE HOLDING
OVER THE ROCKIES.  FRONTS ARE EXPECT TO COME INTO THE NORTHWEST
OFF THE PACIFIC...WITH LESS ENERGY DIVING INTO CALIFORNIA.


CISCO

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/preepd/preepd.html

[Sbeagles]

Were going to need this thing to be a whole lot less suppressed to do us any good though. I still think that it is more likely to hug the gulf coast along southern miss and alabama instead of moving across central and southern florida.

[Woodvegas]

2/9 12Z CMC (Canadian model) also pushes a little light snow up into TN. Hmmmmmm....

[Woodvegas]

2/9 12Z ECMWF still shows only light precip over southern TN.

[Charles L.]

I still think we will see a northward trend with this system. We never like to be in the "sweet zone" 3-4 days ahead of an event...so why should southern AL and MS be an different? lol

It may not trend northward to put us in the sweet spot, but I think enough to make a few people happy.

[shooting70]

Bruce,can you talk to GooFuS and mrdoc and pull that storm up a little for us this week That can be my birthday present

[tennessee storm09]

yeah kevin, i try my best tonite buddy. we need more of a north trend. thats for sure

[shooting70]

The 18zgfs takes the low toward cuba I think the gfs is following the barclinic zone toward the florida keys

[tennessee storm09]

cuba, man the oil rigs out in the gulf might see some snow out of this then

[Sbeagles]

cuba, man the oil rigs out in the gulf might see some snow out of this then

I know seriously. We may be able to go to the Yucatan Peninsula and witness those peoples first snow lol.

[Thundersnow]

I know seriously. We may be able to go to the Yucatan Peninsula and witness those peoples first snow lol.

Bay of Campeche effect snow?? 

[Nashville_wx]

Looks good right?? NAM is north tonight. Good thing but......








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. Guess again... Too early to tell Dew points but this would void anything making to the ground.

[tennessee storm09]

yeah nashville, its trying to trend for the better. at least the 0z nam is showing us getting flizzard conditions pretty much statewide