2/12-13 Winter Weather Threat

[shooting70]

Snowdog,can you post the fim run 102hrs before please.There is also the fimx.have you looked at that one today? We will definitely be cold enough,but how much precip will be the key

[keithinala]

This looked great for n.ala last night, but this mornings sucks...10 inches along the florida/ala line? This has to be wrong

[snowdog]

102 hour  FIM...

[snowdog]

FIMx at 108 hours...to compare with FIM...this one a bit further south with precip but BNA still in the game....

[SnowSeek]

trend north trend north trend north!


uGH, Still plenty of time for a northern trend but Bastardi is believeing the current path and I see some others jumping on...Why is the Low tracking so far south?  Is this just one of those deals were it starts so low that it's going to be an uphill fight the whole way. 

[keithinala]

trend north trend north trend north!


uGH, Still plenty of time for a northern trend but Bastardi is believeing the current path and I see some others jumping on...Why is the Low tracking so far south?  Is this just one of those deals were it starts so low that it's going to be an uphill fight the whole way. 

Can you post what Bastardi is saying? Is it similar to this?

[keithinala]

ugh, just out...moderate to heavy snow, even south of me

[shooting70]

Bugalou,i hate to say it,but we may miss out on this storm for end of week,unless it trends further north.Definitely have cold air in place.Hey,i guess thats the way it goes. I would take an inch or so from it

[SnowSeek]

Those of you recieving snow: I hope you get out and have a ball in it tonight.

From my take of observing a few models tonight, things look to be cold but all the storms are diving to our south and then things appear to chill out for a little while even though it will be cold.

I am not normally the type that likes to throw in the towell but with mid-feb on the very near horizon, days getting longer, and the southern jet stream getting shunted to the far south...i dunno.

Of course Bastardi is still pounding the table for a wild and crazy finish into March.  The euro shows 4 weeks of well below temps for us.  But if your in mid-to southern tn and parts of east tn you have to be at your wits end.  We have missed snows every which way possible this year.

IF you showed a map of the Tennessee outlining total winter precip and above/below temps and you didn't know the result beforehand, I think most of us would fall to our knees.  I guess that's the point I am trying to make....without looking at the data, temps have had to be below avg and precip well above avg yet we don't have much to show.  I hope I am not looking at the glass half empty.

[shooting70]

Snowseek,the thing i think will happen is the blocking will take over and suppress the STJ way far south,kinda like it did for the first 2 weeks in january.I dont want to see that,but it seems that way so  far.Im glad we got our snow this morning,mainly because an impulse outran the storm and we got 5-7 inches.If it would have slowed down and not moved in so quick,then we would have seen maybe an inch here before the eventual turnover to rain. We may strya dry for a while after this storm.Just a heads up.

[Yazoo63]

Those of you recieving snow: I hope you get out and have a ball in it tonight.

From my take of observing a few models tonight, things look to be cold but all the storms are diving to our south and then things appear to chill out for a little while even though it will be cold.

I am not normally the type that likes to throw in the towell but with mid-feb on the very near horizon, days getting longer, and the southern jet stream getting shunted to the far south...i dunno.

Of course Bastardi is still pounding the table for a wild and crazy finish into March.  The euro shows 4 weeks of well below temps for us.  But if your in mid-to southern tn and parts of east tn you have to be at your wits end.  We have missed snows every which way possible this year.

IF you showed a map of the Tennessee outlining total winter precip and above/below temps and you didn't know the result beforehand, I think most of us would fall to our knees.  I guess that's the point I am trying to make....without looking at the data, temps have had to be below avg and precip well above avg yet we don't have much to show.  I hope I am not looking at the glass half empty.

I hear ya.  It would be the ultimate kick in the groin to have a good snowstorm pass to our south later this week.  

I really thought this was gonna be the winter to break our snow drought.  But, from all indications, the snow drought will continue.  After all, even with this last storm, we are still WELL below our yearly average for snowfall here on the plateau.  

There's still time left in the winter, but the clock is ticking.  If something promising doesn't start showing up on the longer range charts, i'm gonna start getting really bummed !  

[SnowSeek]

Those that witnessed some of the great snow storms of the 70/80s please elaborate on how they happened. 

It's seems like it's pulling teeth, or it has to be a surprise storm (like today) for Tennessee to get a good snow storm acrose the state.  It's either way too much cold air and suppression, or not enough and stormy.  How the **** did they setup back then?  I am not discussing global warming, I am more discussing the setup of a storm.  It would seem the same dynamics are at play on a year to year basis even if we remember them differently.

[Mathman]

Those that witnessed some of the great snow storms of the 70/80s please elaborate on how they happened. 

It's seems like it's pulling teeth, or it has to be a surprise storm (like today) for Tennessee to get a good snow storm acrose the state.  It's either way too much cold air and suppression, or not enough and stormy.  How the **** did they setup back then?  I am not discussing global warming, I am more discussing the setup of a storm.  It would seem the same dynamics are at play on a year to year basis even if we remember them differently.

I was in junior high during the late 1970's.  Looking back, I remember far more busts than hits in those days too.  Many was the night that I clung to my tiny weather radio, secretly listening to updates, hoping for a shift north or south in the storm track.  Most of the time, the shift was in the wrong direction.  Just like now.

Still, we managed to get at least two good storms (3-4 inches) in those years, along with several little ones.  It is amazing how everything that it seems can go wrong... does... anymore.

[Woodvegas]

2/9 0Z GFS just totally crushes it sending the low/wave south between Florida and Cuba. Not much hope at this point....next....

Speaking of next... the 2/8 12Z ECMWF shows a possible winter event on 2/15.
EDIT: 2/9 0Z GFS also shows a threat on the 15th.

Doesn't look like we will get much above freezing if at all until Saturday.

[Curt]

2/9 0Z GFS just totally crushes it sending the low/wave south between Florida and Cuba. Not much hope at this point....next....

12Z ECMWF shows a possble winter event on 2/15.

Doesn't look like we will get much above freezing if at all until Saturday.

0z GFS also backing up a poss 2-4 inch snow event late this weekend. Here we go again. Temps look to support all snow with no schizophrenic mixing.