2/12-13 Winter Weather Threat

[snowdog]

12z GFS is out to 96....and this thing is absolutely on crack.  

Hour 96...

96 hours isnt that far out for the GFS to be that far off.  12z Euro should tell the tale.  Need to start seeing it trend north in a big way. 

[Yazoo63]

96 hours isnt that far out for the GFS to be that far off.  12z Euro should tell the tale.  Need to start seeing it trend north in a big way.  

I agree.  If todays EURO doesn't show a major change, then the fat lady might be singing for us to get snow out of this.  

If it was just the GFS, then the jury may still be out ... but if the NAM and EURO confirm, then i just don't see how we could be in the game.  

Longer range isn't showing much either.  

[keithinala]

From the HPC:

SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH FLORIDA FRIDAY...
THE ECMWF SHOWS A TWO DAY TREND TOWARDS SLOWING THIS SYSTEM
DOWN...AND ITS 00Z SOLUTION LIES WITHIN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF
THE ENSEMBLE ENVELOPE.  TO ACCOUNT FOR THE TREND  TOOK THE LOW ON
A SLOWER/MORE NORTHERLY PATH...WITHIN THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE
00Z MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE LOW ENVELOPE  THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
BE QUITE WET ALONG THE GULF COAST AND FLORIDA...WITH STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TO THE SOUTH
OF ITS TRACK AS THE LOW PASSES THROUGH.  MEASURABLE SNOW IS
POSSIBLE WITHIN ITS NORTHERN PERIPHERY FROM TEXAS EASTWARD ACROSS
THE DEEP SOUTH INTO SOUTH CAROLINA FROM THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY AS
1000-500 HPA THICKNESS VALUES WITH THE PREFERRED MODEL BLEND ARE
ANTICIPATED TO BE BELOW 5400 METERS.

[keithinala]

Hope this is right

[snowdog]

Euro today was still ugly.  Unless there is a big change, Nashville is out of this one. 

[tennessee storm09]

i am still in the game there , barely. i think a little more trend to the north isnt out of the equation still.

[shooting70]

I just talked to one of my friends that works for doge city ks.he just told me that the 12-13th storm is history for us.he said the storm developing off east coast this week will suppress the storm track as it tracks northeast,and we may not have anymore chances at winterwx until maybe 24-26th timeframe. Get ready,storm track will be suppressed for a while after this storm.

[keithinala]

GFSX MOS has a 62% chance of snow at HSV Friday, 54% at Chattanooga, 45% at Nashville, 69% at Memphis

[keithinala]

I just talked to one of my friends that works for doge city ks.he just told me that the 12-13th storm is history for us.he said the storm developing off east coast this week will suppress the storm track as it tracks northeast,and we may not have anymore chances at winterwx until maybe 24-26th timeframe. Get ready,storm track will be suppressed for a while after this storm.

Well good for Doge City. Here we go with those friends again.

[servocrow]

I just talked to one of my friends that works for doge city ks.he just told me that the 12-13th storm is history for us.he said the storm developing off east coast this week will suppress the storm track as it tracks northeast,and we may not have anymore chances at winterwx until maybe 24-26th timeframe. Get ready,storm track will be suppressed for a while after this storm.

Soooo...Marshall Dillon and God are that close, eh?

[shooting70]

Im sorry guys.Just telling you what he said.he used to work with ed berry before he went to houston,tx. Basically,we dont want the storm to turn into a monster off east coast for us to get in on the action.How accurate is the mos on precip chances?

[keithinala]

Im sorry guys.Just telling you what he said.he used to work with ed berry before he went to houston,tx. Basically,we dont want the storm to turn into a monster off east coast for us to get in on the action.How accurate is the mos on precip chances?

Well, it's one of the main things the NWS uses to set percentages, although they won't put a real high percentage up way ahead of time, they will trend towards it.
It's accuweather FWIW:

[snowdog]

I just talked to one of my friends that works for doge city ks.he just told me that the 12-13th storm is history for us.he said the storm developing off east coast this week will suppress the storm track as it tracks northeast,and we may not have anymore chances at winterwx until maybe 24-26th timeframe. Get ready,storm track will be suppressed for a while after this storm.

I figured once the pattern relaxed a bit we might be back in the game.  Reading Larry Cosgrove's latest he seems to think after March 1 or thereabouts winter is going to be pretty much over and the blocking is going to be gone.  So we have about 3 more weeks to cash in.  Maybe we can get a good clipper or 2. 

[snowdog]

Here is the FIM model...kind of a new long range model someone linked in this thread or the bigger thread going now about the current system....anyway, I could live with this.   

[keithinala]

GFS at 6PM Friday