2/12-13 Winter Weather Threat

[bigalpha]

I don't suppose I can complain about this not hammering CKV since we've already gotten around 8" this winter.  Good luck to you mid/south TN guys!

[Sbeagles]

I think we will be "now casting" before these models know what is going on.

[ams30721us]

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/WRFRAD_6z/jloop.html

[msmafia]

From NWS Memphis.....thought was interesting....

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY.

THE VERY POTENT SHORT WAVE NOW AFFECTING THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WITH
A FAIR AMOUNT OF LIGHTNING ASSOCIATED WITH IT WILL CONTINUE DIVING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO THURSDAY AND WILL EMERGE
SOMEWHERE IN THE GULF BY THURSDAY EVENING. BEYOND THURSDAY
EVENING...I FEEL MOST MODELS DO NOT HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE
SITUATION YET BY STILL TRACKING THE LOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN OR
CENTRAL GULF. HOWEVER SOME LONG-AWAITED TRENDS ARE BEGINNING TO
OCCUR. WITH THE BEST SURFACE BAROCLINIC ZONE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
GULF COAST WHERE SEA SURFACE WATER TEMPS ARE NEAR 60F OR BETTER...I
SEE NO OTHER SOLUTION THAN FOR THE LOW TO TRACK ALONG THE COAST.
MODELS HAVE FINALLY BEGUN SHIFTING THE TRACK NORTHWARD A BIT INT
HE MOST RECENT RUNS AND NONE OF THEM TAKE IT OVER SOUTHERN
FLORIDA OR CUBA ANYMORE. IN FACT...THE CANADIAN NOW TRACKS THE LOW
ALONG THE GULF COAST SO I BEGAN TRENDING TOWARD THIS MODEL.
ALL MODELS EXCEPT THE NEW 06Z NAM PAINT AT LEAST .10 INCH OF QPF
ACROSS THE SOUTH SO I BUMPED UP POPS TO LIKELY LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING SOUTH OF THE TN/MS STATE LINE. WHAT IS REALLY
CONCERNING IS THE 00Z CANADIAN BRINGS A THIRD OF AN INCH ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TIERS OF THE CWA DURING THIS TIME. GIVEN THAT THE
ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BE RATHER COLD...SNOW RATIOS ON THE ORDER OF 12
TO 15:1 ARE LIKELY. THUS...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SEVERAL INCHES OF
SNOW IF THIS SOLUTION PANS OUT. CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH OF AT
LEAST AN INCH OF SNOW SOUTH OF OXFORD AND TUPELO SO IT LOOKS LIKE
AT LEAST ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED IN LATER FORECASTS IF THE TREND
CONTINUES. THOUGHT ABOUT ISSUING A WATCH WITH WFO LZK...BUT WE
DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON THE ACCOUNT THAT THIS TREND OF THE MODELS
PUSHING NORTH IS JUST BEGINNING AND CONFIDENCE OF 3 INCHES IS NOT
HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT A WATCH ATTM. HOWEVER...THE FORECAST GRIDS
HAVE 2 TO 3 INCHES IN THEM FOR THE SOUTH AND THIS STORM WILL NEED
TO BE WATCHED. WILL ISSUE A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO HIGHLIGHT
THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW.

A SECOND WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SLIDE INTO THE LOWER
OHIO VALLEY BEHIND THE GULF SYSTEM FRIDAY NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE
THE MENTION OF FLURRIES FOR NOW...BUT SOME LIGHT SNOW COULD OCCUR
OVER THE NORTH.

My head is spinning, I don't know which way to watch.  Is it coming from the south or north or both or none.  Not sure why you would be a weather person in this town, its a lose lose.  They have missed on every storm so far in some fashion.  Right now they are berely talking the south low or the clipper on TV as though there is no chance, means we might get a foot of snow between the two.  

[Sbeagles]

GFS is starting to slowly trend northward maybe.

[dwagner88]

Well I hope I can get some more snow. Climatologically speaking I don't really "need" to see anymore this winter, but I like scratching the 15 year itch. Feels nice. The advantage of not feeling like I need it keeps me from model watching 15 hours a day like I did for the last storm. Wow. I sound like a recovering crackhead.

Slightly OT: Isn't it amazing how in these NW flow events it can snow all morning like it has here at 26 degrees and never accumulate on anything? I guess it sublimates or something.  

EDIT: I just saw the NWS page. There are blizzard warnings in GSP's CWA today along the TN border. There are a couple of posters over on Eastern who give obs from up there. I doubt that any of them have power now. 80 mph winds and heavy snow within driving distance.

[DocB]

EDIT: I just saw the NWS page. There are blizzard warnings in GSP's CWA today along the TN border. There are a couple of posters over on Eastern who give obs from up there. I doubt that any of them have power now. 80 mph winds and heavy snow within driving distance.

Hmmm, maybe I should call my mother in Mountain City to see how she's faring. 

[jfranklin]

Is it just me or is this thread a little quieter than usual for a system that's 2 days out? Maybe the chances of us getting hit are so slim that you guys don't see much point discussing it unless the models start agreeing on a northerly track.

[Kevin]

I know MEG was trying to bring this system North this morning...but I just don't see it right now. *Maybe* a Dusting to 1/2" for the Far Southern Counties in the State...but even that is stretching it.

We've had a pretty successful winter given recent history...let the Deep South folks get one to enjoy...

[JJJackson]

Beware the weather gods and their last minute hijinks.

[Woodvegas]

Today's model runs show at best a glancing blow for the southern most counties in TN. It is unlikely that the models will change much this close to the event.

[bugalou]

I know MEG was trying to bring this system North this morning...but I just don't see it right now. *Maybe* a Dusting to 1/2" for the Far Southern Counties in the State...but even that is stretching it.

We've had a pretty successful winter given recent history...let the Deep South folks get one to enjoy...

I dunno.  Pretty much every low in recent memory has over performed when it came down to verification time.  I think 1-3 is possibility for the extreme southwestern areas if this occurs mixed with high ratios.  Going east from there will be less.  The dry air may lead to some very frustrated people though!

[keithinala]

We got 3 inches, and some got up to 5 inches in north Alabama Monday for something not even forecasted or shown. I wish for once though it would be an event that the models catch and stick with and you can enjoy following it all the way to it's beautiful conclusion.

[keithinala]

The Euro may have a surprise for the Tenn.Valley Fri night

[mempho]

I know MEG was trying to bring this system North this morning...but I just don't see it right now. *Maybe* a Dusting to 1/2" for the Far Southern Counties in the State...but even that is stretching it.

We've had a pretty successful winter given recent history...let the Deep South folks get one to enjoy...

Considering the temps have been well below normal and coupled with the stronger southern stream and that Memphis is barely above normal in the snowfall category, I'd consider it to be a little bit of a disappointment...but that's just me.  I suppose I could say rationalize it by saying that we did really score in the past two March storms which were not very favorable winters, but I still hold out hope that we can get a 15" or 20" year.  I know that 20"+ years are less than 1 in 20, though.