2/12-13 Winter Weather Threat

[shooting70]

Bugalou,do you still think this is a dead horse for our area,or do you think we are still in the ballgame?

[keithinala]

Keith,can you post the maps of the canadian.Over at talk weather,they are talking about close to triple phaser,similar to 1993,but not as strong.Im guessing thats what it would take for us to be in on the action.

http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/model_forecast/animateweb_e.html?imagetype=model_forecast&imagename=12_054_G1_north@america@zoomout_I_4PAN_CLASSIC@012_....jpg

check out hrs 72 and 84

[shooting70]

Keith,i noticed that.Its trying to phase,and i would imagine thats what it would take for us to see anything worthwhile out of it.Definitely looks better than the gfs. Would you agree with my statement?

[keithinala]

Keith,i noticed that.Its trying to phase,and i would imagine thats what it would take for us to see anything worthwhile out of it.Definitely looks better than the gfs. Would you agree with my statement?

My dogs poop looks better than the GFS.

[shooting70]

Keith,i meant to say the potential big phaser,not the gfs. I know that looks bad.

[Nashville_wx]

http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/model_forecast/animateweb_e.html?imagetype=model_forecast&imagename=12_054_G1_north@america@zoomout_I_4PAN_CLASSIC@012_....jpg

check out hrs 72 and 84

That is 12z not 00Z.


00Z

[shooting70]

Nashville,when can we access the 0zgem? Similar to what keith posted?Im hearing it looks alot wetter and somewhat further north

[keithinala]

That is 12z not 00Z.

good catch...here you go. I love the track of the low. This has a lot of potential even for the Tenn. Valley.

[shooting70]

Hey keith,is this run putting us back in it for the time being?How much on the canadian does the darker green equal to in qpf?The low is further north on this run,like you said

[keithinala]

Hey keith,is this run putting us back in it for the time being?How much on the canadian does the darker green equal to in qpf?The low is further north on this run,like you said

if that chart shows 5mm, like along the tn/ala border, that might be 2-maybe 3 inches. The real dark green farther south, 10mm plus might be 4-even 8. The yellow, 15mm might be 6-10 roughly.

[shooting70]

Keith,im right on the dark green line and blue line.Still doesnt look like much for me,but i cant complain here.I had a 5-8 inch snow on monday and icestorm jan29th. Of course i wouldnt mind another one though Keep us updated on the euro.Should be rolling out shortly.Mrdoc is always the decider 9times out of ten

[keithinala]

Keith,im right on the dark green line and blue line.Still doesnt look like much for me,but i cant complain here.I had a 5-8 inch snow on monday and icestorm jan29th. Of course i wouldnt mind another one though Keep us updated on the euro.Should be rolling out shortly.Mrdoc is always the decider 9times out of ten

No, Memphis is not on the dark green. You are on the blue/light green line, so more like an inch, two at most. That could change, but the dark green I mean is well south of us so far. 5 mm equals about .2 of an inch of water, so 2 inches at 10 to one for example. Now some of those areas could get 20 mm, and if it is snow...wow.

[shooting70]

I would take an inch or two if it happened.Its been forecasted to stay south of us for a while now,so i dont expect many suprises,but my optimism level is always elevated in winter

[shooting70]

Keith,so i assume the euro isnt out or is it not a good run?Over at tlakweather,they are saying its delayed.

[ams30721us]

From NWS Memphis.....thought was interesting....

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY.

THE VERY POTENT SHORT WAVE NOW AFFECTING THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WITH
A FAIR AMOUNT OF LIGHTNING ASSOCIATED WITH IT WILL CONTINUE DIVING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO THURSDAY AND WILL EMERGE
SOMEWHERE IN THE GULF BY THURSDAY EVENING. BEYOND THURSDAY
EVENING...I FEEL MOST MODELS DO NOT HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE
SITUATION YET BY STILL TRACKING THE LOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN OR
CENTRAL GULF. HOWEVER SOME LONG-AWAITED TRENDS ARE BEGINNING TO
OCCUR. WITH THE BEST SURFACE BAROCLINIC ZONE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
GULF COAST WHERE SEA SURFACE WATER TEMPS ARE NEAR 60F OR BETTER...I
SEE NO OTHER SOLUTION THAN FOR THE LOW TO TRACK ALONG THE COAST.
MODELS HAVE FINALLY BEGUN SHIFTING THE TRACK NORTHWARD A BIT INT
HE MOST RECENT RUNS AND NONE OF THEM TAKE IT OVER SOUTHERN
FLORIDA OR CUBA ANYMORE. IN FACT...THE CANADIAN NOW TRACKS THE LOW
ALONG THE GULF COAST SO I BEGAN TRENDING TOWARD THIS MODEL.
ALL MODELS EXCEPT THE NEW 06Z NAM PAINT AT LEAST .10 INCH OF QPF
ACROSS THE SOUTH SO I BUMPED UP POPS TO LIKELY LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING SOUTH OF THE TN/MS STATE LINE. WHAT IS REALLY
CONCERNING IS THE 00Z CANADIAN BRINGS A THIRD OF AN INCH ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TIERS OF THE CWA DURING THIS TIME. GIVEN THAT THE
ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BE RATHER COLD...SNOW RATIOS ON THE ORDER OF 12
TO 15:1 ARE LIKELY. THUS...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SEVERAL INCHES OF
SNOW IF THIS SOLUTION PANS OUT. CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH OF AT
LEAST AN INCH OF SNOW SOUTH OF OXFORD AND TUPELO SO IT LOOKS LIKE
AT LEAST ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED IN LATER FORECASTS IF THE TREND
CONTINUES. THOUGHT ABOUT ISSUING A WATCH WITH WFO LZK...BUT WE
DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON THE ACCOUNT THAT THIS TREND OF THE MODELS
PUSHING NORTH IS JUST BEGINNING AND CONFIDENCE OF 3 INCHES IS NOT
HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT A WATCH ATTM. HOWEVER...THE FORECAST GRIDS
HAVE 2 TO 3 INCHES IN THEM FOR THE SOUTH AND THIS STORM WILL NEED
TO BE WATCHED. WILL ISSUE A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO HIGHLIGHT
THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW.

A SECOND WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SLIDE INTO THE LOWER
OHIO VALLEY BEHIND THE GULF SYSTEM FRIDAY NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE
THE MENTION OF FLURRIES FOR NOW...BUT SOME LIGHT SNOW COULD OCCUR
OVER THE NORTH.