Ignore the storms, let's talk long range temps

[SnowSeek]

for a little bit...

It can be frustrating as the dickens (charles) to watch for the storms the way they model flip flop..

So what about the temps for the long range? Bastardi's long ranger today shows the temps starting to crash next week and from the 12th-18th absolute freeze...some 12-15 degrees below normal.  He also says this pattern will have a hard time breaking all the way to March

He analogs 1958/1969 febs..

Here is an awesome thread on Eastern that discusses some of the blocking involved:

http://www.easternuswx.com/bb/index.php?showtopic=219983

It seems as though the key to all of this is to continue to have a juiced up southern jet stream...What the landmines that can evolve in this system? too much suppression?

[Coach B]

It sure appears that the forseeable future will be cold and stormy.  I doubt we stay below normal all the way into March, but the majority of the time looks like we could be below avg.  The storms seem lined up and ready to roll in.  Where the line falls with each one will have to be ironed out on a case by case basis.  For those worried about supression, remember that climo favors a stormier Feb and March with El Nino.  So while supression like we saw in Jan is possible, its not nearly as likely thru Feb and into March. 

[Coach B]

The 12Z GFS ens shows the 850 line south of TN from about midnight Friday night all the way to the end of the run!  Doubt it'll stay that way, but interesting nonetheless.

[WFayetteTN]

kmem AFD agrees:

<snip>
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BEHIND THE EARLY WEEK STORM SYSTEM
WITH A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER AND WELL BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

[SnowSeek]

Awesome "with a return to dry weather" bla

[SnowSeek]

With the cold temps on the way it sure would be nice to get some snow on the ground so that it will stick around for awhile...puts even more pressure on that feb 8/9 storm

[keithinala]

HPC had a large area for way below normal temps from the 13th to 24th yesterday, including all of the midsouth, but today it's completely gone. Unbelievable how they flip around.