Winter threat around Feb. 8-9

[Adam]

Ok, I'm a little behind here...what are the hours we are looking at for the 6z run?

We are looing at the system for Monday and Tuesday, when you find it on this run it will be a suppresed gulf storm.

[JJJackson]

Is anyone else having issues with the NWS site?

[Adam]

Is anyone else having issues with the NWS site?

I was last night but now i can get in fine.

[jmundie]

I saw that too. Too much flip-flopping right now to say one way or the other. But we do have to watch and see if this is a trend...

this is another situation where we won't know until the weeked what will happen next week. Fridays system hasn't come to model agreement yet, and it's a complex system that's gonna determine what happens Monday.

Guess we'll continue checking the models hoping for a last minute surprise.

[hrmc]

James Spann is saying a strong negative spike in the AO begining Sunday. Do we feel that is going to set the stage next week? Are the models good at picking that up?

[jmundie]

It looks likely that the ao will fall... That will bring cold temps... But we don't want it to be too negative cause it will suppress our storms.

And like I said, it depends on how this weekends system resolves. The track of thy low once it leaves new England will determine the ao measurements, and how and where cold air sets up in our region.

It's all connected

[gracehappens]

Can someone give me a brief easy definition of AO?  Thanks! 

[Thundersnow]

Can someone give me a brief easy definition of AO?  Thanks! 

AO = Arctic Oscillation

It's a broad general pattern that sets up around the North Pole.  An AO that goes negative tends to allow cold air from the polar regions to come further south into our part of the world.

[jmundie]

The 12z nam and gfs are so different even 48 hours out with speed and track of the first system. I honestly think the gfs is pushing this weeked storm out too fast, keeping it positive tilt the whole time. Canadian, nam, and even euro strengthen te storm and take it negative tilt.

Negative tilt slows te storm down and takes it slowly up the east coast.

That means, whatever the gfs is hoeing for next week is crap.

But all thy being said, it may be all rain for kmem, but not bna

[lyngo]

Just looking at the pattern over the next couple of weeks, you'd think we'd have a better than climo chance of another significant winter storm.  I certainly don't think it's out of the question.  In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if we continue to have better than average chances of decent snowfalls into the first 1/2 of March.  I guess we will see what we will see......

[Cameron K.]

Big difference in the 06z GFS and 12z GFS run. 12z is bring the low right below Middle TN. There's a system out there, and there will be plenty of cold air ready to come in, but beyond that there is absolutely no consistency yet. Personally I think that high isn't going to allow the storm to creep this far north, so we're probably gonna see it bounce around for a while until the GFS finds a balance to some degree.

[Curt]

Big difference in the 06z GFS and 12z GFS run. 12z is bring the low right below Middle TN. There's a system out there, and there will be plenty of cold air ready to come in, but beyond that there is absolutely no consistency yet. Personally I think that high isn't going to allow the storm to creep this far north, so we're probably gonna see it bounce around for a while until the GFS finds a balance to some degree.

Yeah I agree...weird movement of low preesure from south MS to north MS due north rather than northeast. This run would be a nice cold rain possibly changing to snow for most of ths state. This kinda matches up with the 0z EMCWF, but with 6 days out there is potential for something (or nothing, too!)

[msdawg911]

Is anyone else having issues with the NWS site?

They were having some DNS issues, but apparently they are now fixed. It could take 48 hours to fully be fixed, however.

ALERT ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORTH WORTH TX
416 PM CDT MON FEB 1 2010

TO:         SOUTHERN REGION OFFICES

FROM:       SOUTHERN REGION HEADQUARTERS VIA NWS FORT WORTH

SUBJECT:    NETTWORK DNS ISSUES

THE DNS IS PERIODICALLY DROPPING OUT AND LIKELY CAUSING TEMPORARY
OUTAGES TO ALL NETWORK SYSTEMS...SUCH AS THE INTERNET AND AWIPS
NETWORKS.  SRH PERSONNEL ARE WORKING THE ISSUE AND EXPECT TO HAVE IT
FIXED THIS EVENING.

$$

VANSPEYBROECK

ALERT ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORTH WORTH TX
505 PM CDT TUE FEB 2 2010

TO:         SOUTHERN REGION OFFICES

FROM:       SOUTHERN REGION HEADQUARTERS

SUBJECT:    NETTWORK DNS ISSUES

THE DNS SERVER ISSUE AT SRH IS FIXED. DOUG RHUE SAYS THAT THE
NETWORK IS UP BUT IT COULD TAKE ANOTHER HOUR FOR THE FIX TO
PROPAGATE THROUGH THE ENTIRE NETWORK.


$$

VANSPEYBROECK

[Curt]

No obsession here, but the GFS 12z ensembles paint a much different story (ie winter storm) for the area than the 12z op. So...something to watch.

[Franklin SnowKing]

Wow that looks much better for next week. I was in Mexico on vacation last week so I missed the big one here in Middle Tennessee. Maybe I'll get to see a decent snow afterall. If not this one then several more hopefully in February. I know Joe Bastardi is really talking about nice opportunities for snow in February on into March.