More winter weather around Feb.5-6?

[SnowSeek]

Ah most of the models are showing an East Tn event...

maybe you guys are right in passing on this storm..

But then again, how often does an event change dramatically between now and the actual date.  Wouldn't you liked to have been DC in the last event, 1 freaking day out you get "oh by the way your going to get 4-8 inches"...

I just like what's coming up after this storm...

[Mathman]

Being a "newbie", you haven't been around here during a really active weather period, like say our spring severe weather season.  It seems as if this past event was your first here at TNWX...and we're glad you're here.  But, people are visiting here most every day.  THIS place is where some, if not MOST, people get the weather info they're seeking.  Honestly, this is THE ONLY source I get my weather info from.  Just because we don't have 150 members users logged in doesn't mean this place goes into hibernation mode.  If the wrong person sees your previous post about "70% chance of snow over Mid TN", that person is going to think that the entire area has a 70% chance of snow.  As a reliable venue for weather info, we don't want to get in the business of hyping something that CURRENTLY doesn't need to be hyped.

Amen to that.  Many of us lurk until the water gets stirred up again, but we still follow discussions and take the down time to learn.

[Mathman]

Agreed.  Most of us have a life outside of weather.  To those that have free time to look at the models and discuss what is progged, by all means, we encourage you to do so.  That's what this venue is for.  Me personally, I took some heat from the "Better Half" regarding my constant hugging during the evening/night model runs.  To further prevent conflict, I'm taking a step back for a few days, but I'll be stopping in to view everyone's discussions.  If, and I hope it is, the storm is still present on Thursday, I'll start hugging models again.  Until then...I'm claiming model abstinence.   

I consider it more of a short model "Lent."

[WFayetteTN]

Memphis mets are showing rain with a low of 33F on friday. Im gonna hope we dont get ZR. Hand surgery and a week with nothing to do have allowed me to hug the forum for the last system, but on this next one, I'd prefer to sit back and watch north & mid tn get all the action and cheer from the sidelines. I'll come out of pit row after another couple laps. I'll be around, to watch, thats for sure.

[Extremewxlover]

hey what is BUS Driver's discretion during school closings/openings?

[Tom23]

hey what is BUS Driver's discretion during school closings/openings?

Its when a Bus Driver says whether or not they can drive the roads without a problem or chance of a wreck due to road conditions. Directors sometimes ask them what they think about closing school so they can be sure if the decision to close/open is the best one.

[Adam]

Being a "newbie", you haven't been around here during a really active weather period, like say our spring severe weather season.  It seems as if this past event was your first here at TNWX...and we're glad you're here.  But, people are visiting here most every day.  THIS place is where some, if not MOST, people get the weather info they're seeking.  Honestly, this is THE ONLY source I get my weather info from.  Just because we don't have 150 members users logged in doesn't mean this place goes into hibernation mode.  If the wrong person sees your previous post about "70% chance of snow over Mid TN", that person is going to think that the entire area has a 70% chance of snow.  As a reliable venue for weather info, we don't want to get in the business of hyping something that CURRENTLY doesn't need to be hyped. 

Ok i pulled a bonehead move on that one.  Lets just get back to this system

[WFayetteTN]

Ok i pulled a bonehead move on that one.  Lets just get back to this system

Live and learn, right Adam?    

[tennessee storm09]

yeah i think i watch this sytem from the sidelines also, just dont see much for us west tennesseans out of this one. but boy i think we will be back in the game very soon. what a pattern shapping up.

[bobbyjon]

Ok i pulled a bonehead move on that one.  Lets just get back to this system

Don't feel too bad, if we hadn't had a big snow last weekend this board would be going nuts with the chance this weekend, even over the very slight chance tonight.  Most are burnt out as they have mentioned in earlier postsI have lurked for a long time and some posters have been more excited over less.  Note that this board generally tends to hype more than they like to admit (posts saying 10-14 inches etc. on the last storm, getting upset when local met didn't predict more than 3-5" ) , however it also provide a different perspective and some good actual storm report information.

[SnowSeek]

Bobby, I guess I was one of those upset with my local met but I got 9.5 inches and he was giving 3-6...I dunno if that means anything but 

[Crockett]

Note that this board generally tends to hype more than they like to admit (posts saying 10-14 inches etc. on the last storm, getting upset when local met didn't predict more than 3-5" ) , however it also provide a different perspective and some good actual storm report information.

Who actually predicted 10-14" on this board? I specifically remember the 10-14" number being thrown out as something that a single run of a single model was showing for the greater Nashville area, but I certainly don't remember anyone "hyping" that number as something that was actually going to happen.

[Charles L.]

Who actually predicted 10-14" on this board? I specifically remember the 10-14" number being thrown out as something that a single run of a single model was showing for the greater Nashville area, but I certainly don't remember anyone "hyping" that number as something that was actually going to happen.

I agree with you Crockett. We did bring it up, but no one really thought 10-14" was going to fall here. I was predicting 8-10" for my "neck of the woods" and 9-10" did actually fall.

[Adam]

Live and learn, right Adam?    

Yep your right! But im getting back to the system now.

[bobbyjon]

Who actually predicted 10-14" on this board? I specifically remember the 10-14" number being thrown out as something that a single run of a single model was showing for the greater Nashville area, but I certainly don't remember anyone "hyping" that number as something that was actually going to happen.

Didn't say predicted, just posts interpreting big totals from models=hype

Honestly I do not have a clue what OHX is thinking.

in response to their forecast of 2 to 4 inches

I think the general consensus is that OHX is seriously underestimating totals.  The root cause?  Who knows....but most think that they're hugging the NAM because of the evidence of a warm nose at 850mb on both the 12z and the 18z, even as the other model suites have been totally discounting the warm nose.

Even though OHX is saying sleet will mix in with our snow here, I still think we will be mostly snow. They are going by the NAM with that warm nose which the other models haven't picked up on. Correct?

We could see that fall as all snow, 10-12" is very possible for us. WOW!

taken literally in nashville, gfs at 10:1 ratio, 12-15 inches

and there are many more

Even over 50 % on the poll picked over 6+,(yes, some patches got more)

it is no big deal, but compared to jumping on a poster for posting a NOAA snow percentage