More winter weather around Feb.5-6?

[Adam]

Well obviously it wouldn't pan out exactly, but there looks to be a band of snow (I'm assuming, 850s are plenty cold) setting up right over the southern tier of middle tenn counties. All it means is there may be some lucky folks in our area, but right now, you're in the bullseye of backside precip.

Look at the NAM sim radar for hrs 60-72

How do you get to the NAM sim radar?

[jmundie]

E won't really know what will happen Monday until the weekend system does it's thing. Models still haven't nailed down fri-sat we'll know Sunday what will happen Monday.

[jmundie]

How do you get to the NAM sim radar?

[jmundie]

12z euro looks almost exactly like the nam timing wise, maybe a hair cooler and slower at 72. Good wrap around moisture in central and east tenn at 72.

Just confirms that the gfs is on crack.

[jmundie]

18z nam hinting that we may start as snow before changing over to rain

[lyngo]

LOL!  Paducah FTW!!

[WFayetteTN]

18z nam hinting that we may start as snow before changing over to rain

thats quite a strange freeze line. I cant say Ive ever seen one wrapped around like that before.

[jmundie]

Nam is picking up on evaporative cooling... It's a higher res model so it can see those kind of things that the gfs doesn't have the resolution to see (unless it's dramatic)

I'm kinda wondering if the models aren't missing it enough that we could get some front end snow. The air won't be super dry, but with temps in the upper 30s it won't take much to drop us down to freezing... At least for a short period of time.

[Tom23]

LOL and East TN gets the rain out of all that system...

[ST1]

LOL and East TN gets the rain out of all that system...

Well, at least we can't say it's been a quiet winter. lol

[WFayetteTN]

Lets see if Ive mastered the multiple quoted replies in the same note trick. 

The stupidity of people never ceases to amaze me. Thursday night, people at work were saying, "We ain't gonna get no snow!"

I was telling friends around the Memphis area (on thursday) about the system coming in on Friday (1/29) and they thought I was smoking the good stuff because it was sunny clear and upper 50's. So we get that over reaction over here too!

It's constructive criticism.  And yes, you WILL get there...or we'll throw your butt to the wolves.   

 

My impression (from lurking so long) that you (collectively) treat Adam like a little brother. You love him (figuratively) but its your job to hassle and "beat up on him". It grooms him. I see it as good camaraderie on the board. Makes me think you guys arent uptight/tightwads... you know how to get serious when the time is right and you know how to lighten up and goof around on the down time.

[jmundie]

Lets see if Ive mastered the multiple quoted replies in the same note trick. 

I was telling friends around the Memphis area (on thursday) about the system coming in on Friday (1/29) and they thought I was smoking the good stuff because it was sunny clear and upper 50's. So we get that over reaction over here too!

My impression (from lurking so long) that you (collectively) treat Adam like a little brother. You love him (figuratively) but its your job to hassle and "beat up on him". It grooms him. I see it as good camaraderie on the board. Makes me think you guys arent uptight/tightwads... you know how to get serious when the time is right and you know how to lighten up and goof around on the down time.

Yup.

[Charles L.]

Concerning Justin's map in the other thread, wouldn't that setup be favorable for evaporational cooling though? So even if the surface temps. were in the mid 30's wouldn't it cool down and possibly get to freezing if not below by a few degrees? Is that still a possibility with this system?

[Eric]

Lets see if Ive mastered the multiple quoted replies in the same note trick. 

I was telling friends around the Memphis area (on thursday) about the system coming in on Friday (1/29) and they thought I was smoking the good stuff because it was sunny clear and upper 50's. So we get that over reaction over here too!

My impression (from lurking so long) that you (collectively) treat Adam like a little brother. You love him (figuratively) but its your job to hassle and "beat up on him". It grooms him. I see it as good camaraderie on the board. Makes me think you guys arent uptight/tightwads... you know how to get serious when the time is right and you know how to lighten up and goof around on the down time.

Exactly.  All of us here are a family of sorts....we all have one thing that ties us together...the weather.  We can cut up like we're sittin' around a table eating turkey on Thanksgiving, and we can get serious when we have to.  I think that's what sets us apart from other weather forums out there.  The thing about these younguns we have now is they bring a youthful exuberance with them that's refreshing.  But that exuberance must be tempered during the right times...that's when the "big brother/little brother" moments happen.  

[Eric]

Concerning Justin's map in the other thread, wouldn't that setup be favorable for evaporational cooling though? So even if the surface temps. were in the mid 30's wouldn't it cool down and possibly get to freezing if not below by a few degrees? Is that still a possibility with this system?

It'll depend on what the dew points are.  I haven't looked at anything, so take my response with a grain of salt.