Total precip from storm and ULL question

[snowdog]

Just a question about the ULL from last night.  I went to be before it swang through.  Did it even make it to BNA and if it did how much did we get from it? 

Also were can I find total liquid precip from the storm?  Just wondering how close the models were. 

[Kevin]

Just a question about the ULL from last night.  I went to be before it swang through.  Did it even make it to BNA and if it did how much did we get from it? 

Also were can I find total liquid precip from the storm?  Just wondering how close the models were. 

I can't 100% answer on the ULL myself...but most of it was diminishing as it was headed toward Memphis. It may have enhanced some over NW/N Middle TN...but I'm not sure.

As far liquid precip yesterday...here is the report for Middle Tennessee
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/data/OHX/RTPOHX

Check the water equivalent column (not available for all stations)...but at WFO Old Hickory they recorded 0.64 in the 24 hour period 11 AM Yesterday and This Morning. There may have been a small amount prior to 11 AM Yesterday...you folks would be better able to answer that...but if so...you could add a few hundredths to that.

[Thundersnow]

It does look like I picked up a 1/4" dusting on top of the icy top layer that formed last night.  I assume that came from the ULL.

"Certainly nothing to write home about." (that's what Bill Hall used to say  ).

[Tom23]

Totals in East TN vary between a dusting to 20 miles below me, 3 slushy inches here in my town, and 7-10 20 miles above me. DANG IT, WHY COULDN'T I HAVE STAYED ABOVE THE WARM NOSE?

[snowdog]

Thanks for the info Memphis Weather.  Thundersnow, I think Nashville_Wx was hoping for 3-5" from the ULL but it sounds like it wasted out before it got here.  Overall I'm very thankful to finally have a decent snowfall (feels like forever ago) here but I was hoping for a Top 10 type event.  

Also, where can I find a final low track for the storm?  Just wondering because I'm trying to decide which model nailed it best from about 3 days out.  Which model would you guys say nailed it best 3 days out?  

[Thundersnow]

Thundersnow, I think Nashville_Wx was hoping for 3-5" from the ULL but it sounds like it wasted out before it got here.

When I signed off last night, it was apparent that the ULL was fizzling. 

[Kevin]

Thanks for the info Memphis Weather.  Thundersnow, I think Nashville_Wx was hoping for 3-5" from the ULL but it sounds like it wasted out before it got here.  Overall I'm very thankful to finally have a decent snowfall (feels like forever ago) here but I was hoping for a Top 10 type event.  

Also, where can I find a final low track for the storm?  Just wondering because I'm trying to decide which model nailed it best from about 3 days out.  Which model would you guys say nailed it best 3 days out?  

IMO...Euro had this one pegged on almost everything. It may have not completely gotten the idea of mixing involved right...but you also have to remember we didn't have access to sounding data for it...that may have shown small warm noses above or below the 850mb level (what we were using). It was less aggressive overall on QPF...which seemed to verify better...and was definitely further south. Euro has always been reliable but boy it really shined in this one I think

GFS wasn't bad at all though...but it took it longer to get the details pinned and was a little too wet. NAM was way too warm in the BL (near-surface level) for Southern TN especially and far too wet on several runs. The 00z Run Thursday Night...24 hours prior...had 2" of QPF for Memphis...and we didn't even get half of that (0.75")...and Thank Goodness for that by the way!

I'll see if I can get an actual low track plot...

[Adam]

Great system guys , and we still have febuary and early march to go.

[Thundersnow]

.but at WFO Old Hickory they recorded 0.64 in the 24 hour period 11 AM Yesterday and This Morning.

I don't feel quite as bummed about the precip transition cutting down on snow totals, knowing that.  Even if it had been 100% snow, that equates to 6 1/2 inches give or take, depending on ratio.  An especially high ratio might have yielded 8", but I don't think we were dealing with ratios that high.  Even if it were all snow, we would have fallen short of historic totals of a foot or more, like what some of the model runs were showing.  

So, the NAM and GFS did overdo the QPF a bit, it appears.

[Kevin]

Here's a surface low track loop...
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/sfcloop/bwsfc_none.html

[jmundie]

It does look like I picked up a 1/4" dusting on top of the icy top layer that formed last night.  I assume that came from the ULL.

"Certainly nothing to write home about." (that's what Bill Hall used to say  ).

You only got a quarter inch?

I shoveled my sidewalk last night at 9. There was a quarter inch or so by the time the last of the main batch of precip made it through.

This morning I measured 2 inches of sleet/snow there. So I'd say I got an inch and a half overnight.

Regarding the ULL, it appeared last night that it kinda became disconnected from the rest of the system (that hole that was trying to fill in over arkansas all night). Once that happened, I imagine the surface low and front in the gulf cut the ull off from moisture.

[Thundersnow]

You only got a quarter inch?

I shoveled my sidewalk last night at 9. There was a quarter inch or so by the time the last of the main batch of precip made it through.

This morning I measured 2 inches of sleet/snow there. So I'd say I got an inch and a half overnight.

Regarding the ULL, it appeared last night that it kinda became disconnected from the rest of the system (that hole that was trying to fill in over arkansas all night). Once that happened, I imagine the surface low and front in the gulf cut the ull off from moisture.

Let me clarify.  I got an additional quarter inch on top of what I had received yesterday and last night, which totaled near 4" of snow, sleet, and glaze.  There's LOTS of ice and snow here. 

The dusting I was talking about is what fell some time during the night or early morning hours from the ULL.

[jmundie]

Let me clarify.  I got an additional quarter inch on top of what I had received yesterday and last night, which totaled near 4" of snow, sleet, and glaze.  There's LOTS of ice and snow here. 

The dusting I was talking about is what fell some time during the night or early morning hours from the ULL.

Right, that's what I'm saying.

I got at least an inch in the overnight hours, ostensibly from the ULL. Cause I cleared off a couple inches from my sidewalk at 9 when the main snowfall was winding down.

I'm a little north of you, and per Charles, northern counties got a good deal of accumulation overnight. Must have been a sharp cutoff for the ULL

[CookevilleWeatherGuy]

We added another 1/2" this afternoon from a nice pop-up round of snow. It fell quite heavily for about a 20 minute period and was steady for more than an hour!

Total Accums: 4.5" snow, .25" ice/freezing rain, and 1.08 of water equivalent (a/o 7 am) and will add to the last number when I re-check in the morning!

Road conditions are HORRID in Putnam County/Cookeville area. Nearly no melting and our road crews are losing the battle tonight. Currently, 22.6° with a north wind @ 2 mph.

[Clay]

We added another 1/2" this afternoon from a nice pop-up round of snow. It fell quite heavily for about a 20 minute period and was steady for more than an hour!

Total Accums: 4.5" snow, .25" ice/freezing rain, and 1.08 of water equivalent (a/o 7 am) and will add to the last number when I re-check in the morning!

Road conditions are HORRID in Putnam County/Cookeville area. Nearly no melting and our road crews are losing the battle tonight. Currently, 22.6° with a north wind @ 2 mph.

4.5" snow with 1.01" water equivalent.