West Tennessee Ice after the Main Event

[Curt]

Started a new topic for W TN's since the other part of the storm is in Mid TN. Starting to see limbs hang low...this freezing spray is really adding up and starting to cause issues. Middle TN could be next before the ULL comes through.Also sure looks like the ULL may start to swing through further south unless it takes a sharp NE movement soon. Would love to get rid of this freezing spray that is starting to be more than an annoynace. If this keeps up it may trump the 2 inches of sleet/snow from earlier.

FXUS64 KMEG 300233 AAB
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
833 PM CST FRI JAN 29 2010

.UPDATE...

...FREEZING RAIN AND ICING IS BECOMING THE MAIN THREAT FOR
TONIGHT...

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE ANY SNOW OR SLEET IS CHANGING TO
FREEZING RAIN ACROSS WEST TENNESSEE AND EASTERN ARKANSAS. THIS IS
DUE TO THE MID LEVEL DRY SLOT WHICH HAS CUT SNOWFLAKE PRODUCTION
IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THIS
TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT...WITH PERHAPS
SOME SNOW MIXING IN...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDSOUTH
REGION AS MORE MOISTURE PUSHES INTO THE DENDRITIC GROWTH REGION
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER LOW.

POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR AN ADDITIONAL QUARTER OF AN INCH OF ICE
ACCUMULATION OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE I-40 CORRIDOR.
ACROSS THE FAR NORTH...UP TO ANOTHER 3 INCHES OF SNOW WILL BE
POSSIBLE BUT IF FREEZING RAIN CONTINUES EVEN UP THERE...THIS WILL
NOT BE LIKELY.

BECAUSE THIS FREEZING RAIN IS OF LIGHTER INTENSITY THAN
BEFORE...IT HAS A BETTER CHANCE TO STICK SINCE MUCH OF IT IS NOT
JUST RUNNING OFF. THEREFORE...EXPECT THE POSSIBILITY OF GREATER
RATES OF ACCUMULATION THAN BEFORE WITH TRAVEL CONDITIONS BECOMING
NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE.

THOUGHT ABOUT UPGRADING MUCH OF THE WINTER STORM WARNING INTO AN
ICE STORM WARNING...BUT THE THREAT FOR SNOW MIXING IN HAS
PREVENTED ME FROM DOING THIS. UPDATED THE WSW FOR LATEST
INFORMATION AND FRESHENED UP THE GRIDS.

BORGHOFF

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 439 PM CST FRI JAN 29 2010/

[bugalou]

Track of that ULL is key.  As of now I don't see us getting out of it unless it just dies. 

Also Cyclogent posted this at TW:

Poor Memphis.  The RUC shows a strong shortwave moving onshore Cali tonight, weakening the ridge over the Rockies, allowing the upper low to your west to open up.  The tricky part is the best upper jet dymanics for you guys begins to move out just as the shortwave opens up and approaches.  Could be more of the same freezing drizzle/light frz rain rather than snow, but of course that hinges a lot on whether or not the Cali shortwave is as strong as indicated.  By the time the shortwave moves onshore and gets fully sampled in the RAOB, the precip will have come to an end for Memphis the most part.  Tricky forecast.

What is that all about?

[tennessee storm09]

i havent got much fz rain at all today mainly snow. but just wondering if that ull over arkansas coming this way, does it have enough moisture to cause me to have enouogh to loose power. i hope not.

[InMemphis]

Have seen quite a few flashes and hearing popping all within the last 30 minutes. Have also heard some sirens which may or may not be related to the situation.

[toastido]

Have seen quite a few flashes and hearing popping all within the last 30 minutes. Have also heard some sirens which may or may not be related to the situation.

Begs to differ.

[bugalou]

I can stand out side and hear the tree branches breaking in the distance.  If we get more, event just .10 of an inch it could be the tipping point.

[Kevin]

I hope we don't get that much...I'm a little skeptical about it being that high but that would be a disaster if it happened. So far its just the freezing drizzle/rain that's about .01"/hr. We'll have to see what the stuff N/W of Little Rock does...the high-res models show it weakening and pulling north of the I-40 corridor....but so far it hasn't done that.

[Curt]

You guys down closer to state line have it worse than I. I ended up with mostly sleet/snow today, about 2 inches. However, trees are cracking in the backyard. There is a rotten oak 50 feet tall that has always worried me. No danger of the whole thing coming down but weighted branches coming down isnt out of the question now.

Watching LZK with great interest. Come on baby, hold it together!

BTW, freakin Stanton, TN, 15 miles up hwy 70 has 8.5 inches of snow. THAT was the place to be today!

[bugalou]

Are the winds suppose to kick up on the backside of the ULL?  They are pretty calm now, not the 35 MPH gusts MEG is talking about.

[tennessee storm09]

good question, i was wondering the same thng, where is that kiind of wind being generated by.

[bugalou]

Power just flickered here.

[Curt]

GFS tonight looks like more precip with the low swinging through all of west TN and extreme xtreme NMS. Possibly .1-.25? I know hi res is better but both GFS and NAM both increase QOPF after midnight(as if this fog isnt bad enough!)

Yeah I am not sure I see gusts that high at this point. Maybe I am missing something.

[Curt]

Power just flickered here.

doh! You too??

[InMemphis]

Had a flicker here as well.

[marjl21]

Me Three!  I just stepped outside and was wondering about the wind also.  We get the occasional gust to probably 20 MPH that makes the trees creak, but other than that its fairly calm here.  Curt, I think all the sleet earlier has saved us thus far.