Winter Storm 1/28-1/30

[jmundie]

Kevin... Doesn't the euro tend to have a warm bias the further out it goes?

And Eric... I haven't jinxed anything yet. In fact, this is exactly where we wantto be. When have the models ever latched onto something this far out that verified?

We've got a full moon, a large polar vortex, a cutoff low, solar minimum, and on and on. There is certainly reason to hope... And just watch the models work it out.

Hopefully some of the noons are paying attention and learning how complex it is for this to come together. Model watching is like the butterfly effect, one little small variation in data can create large changes the further out the model goes into the future.

[Kevin]

Kevin... Doesn't the euro tend to have a warm bias the further out it goes?

And Eric... I haven't jinxed anything yet. In fact, this is exactly where we wantto be. When have the models ever latched onto something this far out that verified?

We've got a full moon, a large polar vortex, a cutoff low, solar minimum, and on and on. There is certainly reason to hope... And just watch the models work it out.

Hopefully some of the noons are paying attention and learning how complex it is for this to come together. Model watching is like the butterfly effect, one little small variation in data can create large changes the further out the model goes into the future.

Not a warm bias that I've ever seen...but I'm sure that can be debatable. The Euro's two main biases are it being too dry...and then holding upper level energy back across the SW US/Baja Calif (which it is having problems with that in the last few runs).

[jmundie]

I've heard a lot over at eastern that it tends to be slightly warmer the further out you go. In fact there was an article on drudge talking about it's warm bias and inability to forecast the frigid long term cold in Europe right now.

Knew about the holding back the energy... Anyone with have a brain can see when it's doing that, low pressure has a tendency to jus sit in baja California for days in the long range.

[shooting70]

If this storm phases early,its over for us.Thats the bottomline.We dont want it to phase until its east of here.The 0zeuro obviously had the storm phasing earlier,hence a track into MO and IL.No blocking= no snow or ice. ::shrug::Just west of the apps would be ok.I think

[ams30721us]

Oh Snap HPC Barking!!

A NEW WRINKLE HAS BEEN ADDED TO THE MEDIUM RANGE EQUATION BY THE
12Z/22 GFS. THE 12Z DETERMINISTIC GFS TAKES AN OBSCURE SHORTWAVE
FEATURE TOPPING THE BLOCKING HIGH OVER EXTREME NERN ALASKA SUN AND
AMPLIFIES IT EXCESSIVELY AS IT ROARS S BETWEEN THE BLOCKING HIGH
OVER NW CANADA AND THE MAIN POLAR VORTEX NEAR JAMES BAY. BY FRI
DAY 7 IT HAS USED THIS FEATURE TO CARVE OUT A VERY DEEP TROF OVER
THE MIDWEST/OH VLY...PHASING IT WITH THE NEXT MAJOR SRN STREAM SYS
CROSSING THE SRN CONUS. WE CONSIDER THE 12Z GFS SCENARIO VERY
UNLIKELY ON TWO ACCOUNTS: 1) THE EXTREME SHORTWAVE DEEPENING AS IT
PLUNGES S E OF THE WRN CANADIAN RIDGE...AND 2) ITS PHASING WITH
THE SRN STREAM SYS.

THE SRN STREAM CONTINUES ACTIVE. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE SW CONUS WHICH SHOULD EVENTUALLY INDUCE A SURFACE LOW
TRACKING ACROSS THE GULF COAST REGION THE LATTER PORTION OF NEXT
WEEK. HAPPILY...THE NEW 12Z/22 UKMET AND UKMET ARE MUCH MORE
SUPPORTIVE OF OUR UPDATED PRELIM CONTINUITY IN THE SRN STREAM THAN
THE CORRESPONDING GFS. ALTHO THEY DO SHOW A DECENT ARCTIC
SHORTWAVE DROPPING S THRU CENTRAL CANADA IN THE DAY 3-4 TIME
FRAME...THEY TURN THE ENERGY EWD ACROSS THE NRN GREAT LAKES WED
DAY 5 RATHER THAN DROPPING IT S INTO THE OH VLY. THEY APPEAR ON
TARGET WITH OUR CONTINUITY IN BRINGING THE NEXT SRN STREAM
SHORTWAVE TOWARDS SRN CA BY EARLY WED...WHICH SUPPORTS OUR WAVE
OVER SW TX FOR THU DAY 6. THIS SYS COULD TAP GULF MOISTURE AND
BECOME AN IMPORTANT PRECIP PRODUCER BY FRI DAY 7 OVER THE SERN
CONUS...POSSIBLY WITH SN ON THE NRN EDGE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD.

[snowdog]

Looks like Dr. No (Euro) is putting this threat to sleep before we all get too excited.  Looks like we may get some more flurries the middle of next week though.  That can take my yearly total from .5" to .75".   

[SnowSeek]

Lakes Cutter is now a curse word for me

[Curt]

12z GFS ensembles show a rain changing to snow scenario for the state with accums for most. The 12z euro looked similar but not really sure about when the change would occur or how much. GFS ens also show prolonged but not severe cold for awhile. If its going to happen this winter, this will be our shot over the next 3 weeks. Bottom line...interesting times ahead and this pattern looks alot better than the frigid-bone dry pattern earlier.

[jmundie]

18z lakes cutter. The shortwave is coming in way too strong.

[SnowSeek]

For those that even care:

Joe Bastardi's latest video off the paid site is going banana's about a frigid February with...."a great pattern" lol

Heard that alot this year

[bonzomemphis]

Hear that a lot every year

Fixed that for you. 

[Snowmachine]

For those that even care:

Joe Bastardi's latest video off the paid site is going banana's about a frigid February with...."a great pattern" lol

Heard that alot this year

"A great pattern" is something that you will hear year after year. I think its just to hype things up is all.

[Snowmachine]

I wonder what kind of pattern we had in 85 and 96 to get those good snows? If anyone knows please enlighten us.

[snowdog]

I just want an average pattern.  We used to average around 10" a year.  That has been falling pretty steadily the last 10 years. 

[Woodvegas]

1/22 12Z ECMWF says close but mostly cold rain on the 29th and 30th. 1/23 0Z GFS also says close but no cigar. Here is the raw data for BNA from the 0Z GFS...

                           
                         2 M     850     6 HR     
                        TMP    TMP      QPF   
                         (C)     (C)      (IN)
THU 12Z 28-JAN   1.5     0.7     0.00     
THU 18Z 28-JAN   4.0     0.5     0.04     
FRI 00Z 29-JAN    2.3    -1.2     0.22     
FRI 06Z 29-JAN    0.9     2.0      0.75     
FRI 12Z 29-JAN   -1.0     0.6     0.08     
FRI 18Z 29-JAN   -3.4    -2.2     0.02   
SAT 00Z 30-JAN  -4.4    -5.7     0.01

The low tracking south of us would be great for frozen precip if we can just get a little more cold air into play. BTW we may get some flurries this Monday/Tuesday.