Winter Storm 1/28-1/30

[jmundie]

Let's get it started folks.

6z continuing to show overrunning, but suppression prevents a phase.

To my untrained eye, 0z Euro looked like it was trying to phase at 168, but I don't have the maps after that.

[ams30721us]

Images from 6z GFS:

Thursday Morning:


Thursday Lunch:


Thursday Evening:


Thursday Night:


Friday Morning:

[ams30721us]

David Glenn Chief Met Channel 9 Chattanooga posted this early this morning:

Once the front passes through, we should dry out by Monday afternoon. Just a little cooler behind the front with highs on Monday in the 50s. A clipper system rolls through from the northwest Monday night through Tuesday. This should bring a shot of much colder air and even some flurries late Monday night and Tuesday. High temperatures Tuesday should only reach the low 40s with a brisk north wind.

The rest of the week looks normal temperature-wise through Thursday and dry. Long range model data continues to hint at some possible wintry weather next Friday. In particular, the GFS model continues to insist on the possibility of some snow developing as the southern jet remains active over the south while pulling down some colder air. This is still a week away and a lot could change on the model data. But, this is consistent with the Arctic Oscillation going negative late month indicating a return to possible below normal temperatures. So, at the very least, a slightly colder than normal temperature pattern could return. We will just have to see if the moisture sticks around locally or goes south.
David Glenn

[jmundie]

12z gfs was not a good change.... Shortwave moves in quicker and turns it into a lakes cutter... And not even a good snowstorm for those on the nw side of the low.

I guess the faster movement of the shortwave prevents it from digging enough.

Let's see what the euro says.

[ams30721us]

Its the way the PV is being handled this run that doesnt set up the 50/50 in time. Of course its the GFS and its gotta switch it up from time time to on a run esp. this far out. Lets just see what happens the next few days.

[ams30721us]

12z:


6z:

[Kevin]

Hopefully this trend will bear wrong...but usually once the models trend toward a lakes cutter scenario...they rarely change back. At least its still a solid week away...but the lakes cutter scenario is in line with the current pattern too...so we'll just have to see...

[ams30721us]

12z Canadian through 144 looks like prior runs of GFS with the PV being positioned in a good way.

[shooting70]

Personally,i think this thread is done before it starts. To my untrained eye,it seems to be phasing to soon,which would pull the storm further nw.As we all know,when the low is real close to us,like it is on most runs of various models,it brings up alot of WAA.I liked the look of the 0zgfs last nite,especially the ensembles.Like kevin said,a lake cutter,if it indeed happens,this storm is a dead horse.For us at least.I know its still a solid week away,but it is trending toward a cutterstorm.No blocking up north right now to shunt it further south.We will keep watching it though.

[jmundie]

Let's wait til 0z before we start proclaiming this a cutter. Haven't seen this solution before 12z, and the track will be determined by the polar vortex, which is going to be based on where the early week storm tracks. Consistancy hasn't been great with regard to specifics... We just know there will be cold air and a storm. Beyond that it's waiting and watching the trends of how the model resolves the pieces

[Nashville_wx]

  Could we not have waited till Monday?

Weenie image of the day.

[jmundie]

12z euro has the low tracking through south Alabama into central Georgia.

So in short, 180 degrees different than the 12z gfs.

Basically.  who knows.

[Eric]

Could we not have waited till Monday?

Weenie image of the day.

Blame mundie.

[Kevin]

12z euro has the low tracking through south Alabama into central Georgia.

So in short, 180 degrees different than the 12z gfs.

Basically.  who knows.

Unfortunately the Euro is not conducive for snow even with that track (like the GFS yesterday)...given available thicknessess/850 temperatures...its either rain...with an outside shot of ice depending on the unavailable surface temperatures.

[ams30721us]

12z Euro looks much better....esp for you Nashville folks but also on the backside of low in West Tenn and East Tn....

Instead of the 00z Euro solution of moving the low into MO and into Illinois the 12z Euro shifts the low down tracking from Southern Miss to Central GA with the 850 line hanging around the tenn/ky border then crashing behind the low as it moves east. Also upper low provides cooling for some wintry weather in Northern Miss moving into west tenn.... No reason to cut out on this as of yet at all....