1/15-1/18 Storm System

[skillsweather]

Just thought its close enough to time to start talking about the new winter threat/possibility's.

[Tom23]

Beat me to it! Yeah, this possible winter event is very, very interesting and deserves some talk.

[cliftown04]

The question is will this thread reach 247 pages like the last one did?  If it does, then I predict it will be a big story.

[Tom23]

Yep, it sure will! Everybody start talking up a storm (not just random stuff though) about the event, and we'll at least get up to 100

[Woodvegas]

1/9 0Z ECMWF shows a Miller A storm next weekend with maybe a little freezing rain along the southern TN border at the onset of the event. Then it shows light rain in southern TN as the low passes south and east of us. Temps are too warm for snow based on this model run.

[Eric]

Not to throw a wet towel on everybody, but the chances of this thing panning out the way we want it is slim and none, and slim's packing his bag.  It's obvious the trend is there for a whopper of a storm, but we're still ~200+ hours out.  This thing doesn't need to be taken seriously until the 6z Monday run at the earliest.  Just my   .

[StormNine]

This could be a situation where the cold air comes in a little too late.  Of course being around a week out it is early to get your hopes up.

[Tom23]

Yeah, I agree. Temps are a little problematic, to say the least.

[jmundie]

have we really started a thread for this?

lets wait til its inside the truncation zone of the model first.

[skillsweather]

the other thread was made 9days from that event and this is 7days away.

[WFayetteTN]

FWIW, someone in another thread mentioned a graphic built by SD over at talkweather.com. The talk over there, (and yes I also agree that it is a bit early to start screaming through the woods with your hair on fire) is a significant ice event. Heres a link to the graphics. If it does by some slim chance come through this his prediction, it could get us all.
http://www.talkweather.com/forums/index.php?/topic/53302-jan-12-16/page__st__75

After this week of single digits, Im ready for some 40s and 50s again for a couple weeks. I think Id be miserable if I lived up north.

[DocB]

Not to throw a wet towel on everybody, but the chances of this thing panning out the way we want it is slim and none, and slim's packing his bag.  It's obvious the trend is there for a whopper of a storm, but we're still ~200+ hours out.  This thing doesn't need to be taken seriously until the 6z Monday run at the earliest.  Just my   .

I'm with you there. Not even going to entertain this one yet, especially after how everyone got burned on the last one.

[Thundersnow]

the other thread was made 9days from that event and this is 7days away.

The other thread was mainly about the cold wave at first with a pattern that would lend itself to possible storm chances when it was created.  The cold wave was a near certainty at that point.  That's mainly why it was created as a separate thread.  But, a date wasn't even assigned to the potential snow event that came to pass until it was less than 5 days away.

My prediction is that this will end up being soaking rain event with temperature in the 40s since the cold air is really iffy at this point, but we'll see what the next couple of days of model runs say.

[Woodvegas]

The other thread was mainly about the cold wave at first with possible storm chances when it was created.  The cold wave was a near certainty at that point.  That's mainly why it was created as a separate thread.  But, a date wasn't even assigned to the potential snow event that came to pass until it was less than 5 days away.

My prediction is that this will end up being soaking rain event since the cold air is really iffy at this point, but we'll see what the next couple of days of model runs say.

Yeah, I'm not very optimistic about this event either and like you I suspect it will be mostly rain and another wasted Miller A. However, it's the only thing on the horizon at the moment so I may as well keep an eye on it.

[Clay]

Although we are still in the loosely monitoring phase with this system, this caught my eye.

...but when we go down to the surface...
That's a lot of ice.