1/15-1/18 Storm System

[Hedwig]

Storm seems very interesting but remember folks we are still in voodoo mode. We should know more as we draw near, but things seem to be in place for a shot at snow if the setup gets its right.

[jmundie]

This storm is going out to sea.

Not even the northeast can get involved on this thing. What a waste.

Let's enjoy the relatively warm temperatures. Kinda amazing that the "blowtorch" we're about to get isn't even gonna get us into the 60s. Highs will be 3-5 degrees above normal.

Unreal how much cooler than avg its been in the last year or so.

[dave]

So I guess this storm (and post/thread) is dead??

[SnowBelle]

Buried at sea~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

[jmundie]

Maybe not dead. I think most of us just aren't gonna waste our time tracking a storm that's going to depend on dynamic cooling from an upper level low.

Though, the 0z gfs trended a little better for us. We'll certainly have a cold monsoon... might end up with a surprise snow. Just not worth the effort, especially after that last disappointment.

[jmundie]

Anyone see the 12z gfs today?

I'm having a hard time believing, if the strength and track are right, that this Sumer wouldn't pull in some cold air.

If it does, it's literally the perfect track for a blizzard.

Wow.

[Thundersnow]

12Z GFS does try to develop a pocket of sub-zero 850 MBs on the back side of the departing low 102-120 hours.

That is some impressive QPF riding through TN in association with the low.  Still one to watch.

[Eric]

Anyone see the 12z gfs today?

I'm having a hard time believing, if the strength and track are right, that this Sumer wouldn't pull in some cold air.

If it does, it's literally the perfect track for a blizzard.

Wow.

I don't know.  Skew-Ts show only a shallow area of colder air at or around H3 and H25.  The question is does it get wound up ENOUGH to pull air down from that far up.    The system definitely shows a whopper of a track IF the cold air gets involved.

[jmundie]

I don't think 850s will retreat that far north. With all the snow cover north of us, a northerly flow... And a deepening phasing low pressure trying to tap the northern stream.

This could end up being one of those huge winter storms that we don't realize are going to be winter storms til the last minute.

Wouldn't it be wonderful if money morning rain quickly changes over to heavy snow?

[RobD]

Hi all! I hardly ever post, but I check in quite a bit and I have a question about this upcoming event. What is the timing looking like? We plan on traveling between mid TN & Birmingham/Tuscaloosa on Friday and Saturday evening and I'm trying to plan accordingly.
Thanks!

[Eric]

Hi all! I hardly ever post, but I check in quite a bit and I have a question about this upcoming event. What is the timing looking like? We plan on traveling between mid TN & Birmingham/Tuscaloosa on Friday and Saturday evening and I'm trying to plan accordingly.
Thanks!

 
Timing is still up in the air at the moment, but rain looks to begin in earnest across much of AL around 1pm on Saturday.  The rain shield progresses northward over all of TN and AL with moderate to heavy rain in spots around 7pm, and as the low pulls northeastward, rain looks to finally end around 1pm Sunday.  The best travel day appears right now to be on Friday.

[Cameron K.]

This is good. We need some rain heavy rain.

[dave]

Rain and milder temps would be just fine with me at this point.  I ready for a warm up 

[beth]

I enjoyed the warmer temps today and actually ran my car through the car wash. There was quite the line there too.

[Eric]

It is more than 6 hours old, but here's OHX's view on this weekend's system:

IN THE EXT FCST...UPPER LEVEL LOW STILL PROJECTED TO TAKE A
SOUTHERLY TRACK AND MOVE ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH THIS WEEKEND. STORM
SYSTEM IS NOT VERY DEEP AND THE SYSTEM WILL BE BACK FED BY MORE OF A
PACIFIC TYPE OF AIRMASS IN TERMS OF THE TEMPERATURE STRUCTURE. RIGHT
NOW...LOOKS LIKE MOSTLY A RAIN EVENT BUT WILL NEED TO WATCH IN CASE
THE PROGS BEGIN TO DEEPEN THE LOW.